WKU Football: Keys to Victory vs. Rice
It’s always nice to beat up on the MUTS, especially given everything that has come to light with all of the conference realignment conversation. Apparently, many in the MAC wanted WKU and Middle to join, and Middle is too concerned about stadium upgrades and Conference USA paychecks than making sure they’re not in a dump of a conference. Why clean up your dump of a campus if you’re going to be in a perpetual dumping zone for marginal FCS programs? To be tied to that cesspool of an athletics program in any way, especially to be held somewhat captive to their own decision making, has been extremely frustrating.
As Devin Stewart would say on the RedOut Podcast (check it out!), I digress.
So WKU has beaten its most hated rival by several touchdowns, and that continues a trend of four games winning by at least two possessions and never really being threatened after the first quarter.
So clearly, WKU has turned the corner and gotten into a groove. Who can stop the Tops enough to have a chance against a defense that is now also very improved? There don’t seem to be many C-USA programs game enough to compete with WKU in all three phases.
In comes Rice, a team that has an ugly record at 3–6 and 2–3 in Conference USA that could easily flip the past two weeks and have the exact same record as WKU (5–4, 4–1 C-USA). Rice has lost two straight overtime games, one at home to North Texas, the other at Charlotte. They also beat UAB, one of the teams behind UTSA that could hope to steal the West division. And they’ve done most of these things without starting quarterback Wiley Green, who only made four appearances before going down with a season ending leg injury. So despite whatever the record or statistics say, they are plenty dangerous and should be taken seriously.
So what does WKU need to do fry the Rice Owls?
Keys to Victory
Great Offense, Good Defense
I know this is cliché, but I think it’s the most obvious key to victory this week. Just do your thing, Tops. If the Tops play well and don’t turn the ball over, they’re pretty much going to win. Rice averages less than 20 per game and has only scored 30 or more twice. WKU is yet to do any less than 31 points in any game this year. Rice also gives up 35.6 points per game, allowing at least 30 in all but two games. Now, let’s be fair: Numbers are incredibly skewed because of two games: Texas and Houston. The combined scoreline? 102–7. That will skew some numbers for sure. However, it’s also an indication of quality. Would WKU have been shut out of a game against anyone in the country? Probably not. Texas gives up nearly 30 per game including the game against Rice. Houston gives up 22 per game, again, including Rice. The Owls seem to be struggling to do anything well in all three phases. But again, they have their moments.
Minimize Rice’s Explosive Plays Defensively
Much like MTSU, I see a capable defensive front that gets to the opposing quarterback a few times a game. I also see a defense that forces enough turnovers to wreck a game. It’s not as if Rice is incapable of making things happen defensively. They have some pieces. They have several players with multiple sacks. They hold opponents to a shade over 400 yards per game, meaning they’re not just plain awful defensively. They have forced 13 turnovers, but have only recovered three. Imagine if a few more of those had been discovered by the Owls instead of the opposing offense pouncing on more than 3/4 of the loose balls. The Owls could easily be at or above .500 with a few more turnovers forced.
Win the Red Zone
Despite WKU’s prolific offense, the Tops struggle converting in opponents’ territory. Perhaps once the field gets smaller, the Air Raid becomes less effective, given the smaller windows and defensive players generally closer to the line of scrimmage. Rice’s opponents also score nearly twice as many touchdowns as them. Rice gives up over four touchdowns per game. This should feed right into WKU’s preferences, but obviously if the Tops struggle to convert a few times, that may be enough to open up the door for Rice to hang around and steal one late. Rice also misses more than half of its field goals attempts (5-of-11), so if Rice all of a sudden makes some field goals, that is a significant change in tendency. Regardless, WKU needs to be great deep in opponents’ territory from here forward.
Win Special Teams Decisively
Western came back to Earth Saturday on Special Teams. Braden Narveson and Cory Munson were their normal selves, but John Haggerty was a little off his game. Also, the Tops gave up a 68 yard punt return, by far the longest of the year. Rice is average to awful on special teams. They’re 5-of-11 in the kicking game. Their kickoffs average landing past the ten yard line. Cory Munson had more touchbacks last week than Rice has had all season in the kickoff game. They have given up several long returns, and have not had many to show for themselves. They’re had five kicks/punts blocked already. The lone bright spot in the kicking game on both sides of the ball is punting. Punter Charlie Mendes is one C-USA’s best, averaging 44 per punt. If Rice can hold its own or somehow be better than WKU on special teams, that gives them Owls a chance.
Minimize Explosive Run Plays
Rice is most effective on the ground offensively. The Owls have five players who have busted a 30 yard run or longer. Without some big plays, doesn’t it stand to reason Rice will struggle? WKU has also been more aggressive defensively, giving up some more chunk plays of late. With how the defense has been blowing up drives, it is ok to give up chunk plays in exchange for drive killing sacks or turnovers. But then again, how many great defenses are still able to get a good rush while also completely covering the back end? If WKU can keep down the explosive run plays, that will be massively helpful in keeping Rice at bay. And also if Rice can’t run the ball, that will give the ball back to WKU’s historically good offense more often.
Prediction
I’m just not sure how this game in particular goes any other way. Rice hasn’t scored above 30 points since starting QB Wiley Green went down due to injury. The only time they scored 30 was against UAB, where they converted 5-of-5 fourth downs in addition to only forcing one more turnover and gaining 99 less yards than the Blazers. In other words, even that was flukish. I just don’t see many ways WKU loses this game. Rice is going to have to play as well as they did in the big moments against UAB, but they’re also going to have to score another couple of touchdowns to best the Tops.
There’s not much to say. This is a nightmare matchup for Rice. There are very few things Rice is truly good at, and something from WKU pretty much eliminates that advantage for Rice. This seems like a game for WKU to really blast it open and keep rolling. This could be the biggest margin of victory on the season yet. I’ve got WKU 62-Rice 13.
