WKU Football: Vanderbilt Preseason Preview
With the kickoff of football season less than three weeks away, we’ll continue to bring you our preseason look at each of WKU’s regular season opponents between now and the start of the season. Today we continue the series with the rubber match of a three game series as the Tops travel down to Nashville to take on the Vanderbilt Commodores one last time.
Date & Time
November 4th 2017, TBA
Location
Vanderbilt Stadium. Nashville, TN
Series
Vanderbilt leads 4–1
Last Meeting
Last season, in front of the largest crowd in Houchens Industries L.T. Smith Stadium history (23,674 fans), WKU allowed Vanderbilt to drive down the field twice for two 75-yard touchdown drives to tie the game at 24–24 at the end of regulation and force overtime. Vanderbilt scored on the first drive of overtime and WKU quickly answered on a 8-yard touchdown pass from Mike White to Shaquille Johnson. Unfortunately, WKU went for two and Mike White’s pass was batted down at the line of scrimmage as the Commodores beat WKU 31–30 in overtime.
TV/Radio
TV — TBA (probably SEC Network or ESPNU)
Radio — Hilltopper IMG Sports Network
2016 Season
2016 was a moderate breakthrough for third-year head coach Derek Mason. Vanderbilt started just 2–4 with wins over MTSU and WKU while losing a score of close games. In the second half of the season, the Commodores started to win those close games rallied to finish 4–2 with wins over Georgia, Ole Miss and Tennessee, qualifying for the Independence Bowl while finishing 6–7 (3–5), tied for 5th in SEC East.
Returning Starters
17 (9 on offense, 8 on defense)
Relevant Preview Articles
Bill Connelly’s SB Nation Vanderbilt Preview
In one way, Mason is right to be excited. The experience his team has compiled — and not just returning production (like what South Carolina’s batch of sophomores and juniors have), but the experience that comes with loads of fourth- and fifth-year guys — should pay off in the form of maybe the highest floor in the SEC East, outside of Georgia or Florida.
That means that if basically any division rival plays a C-game or worse against Vandy this year, that rival will lose. But while the Commodores may have the highest floor, they also have the lowest ceiling. If an opponent plays its A-game, that opponent wins, perhaps comfortably.
If the East improves as I think it might, then a lot of Vandy’s growth will be neutralized. S&P+ gives Vandy between a 35 and 65 percent chance of winning in six of 12 games. That five of the other six are below 35 percent tells you that a second bowl would be a heck of an accomplishment. But it’s on the table.
Pete Fiutak’s College Football News Vanderbilt Preview
And that leaves it up to the offense to do its job.
Vanderbilt all-time leading rusher Ralph Webb is back, along with ten-touchdown blaster Khari Blasingame to provide a dangerous 1–2 punch to take the heat off everyone else.
All of the receivers are back, two-year veteran QB Kyle Shurmur returns, and three starters are back up front. Nine starters are back in all to an offense that finished 110th in the nation, but cranked out 400 yards or more in each of its last three regular season games.
It showed Vandy fans a little glimmer of hope that if everything else breaks right, the Commodores can finally stop being seen as a yearly SEC East also-ran.
It’s not all that long ago since the program was coming off of back-to-back 9–4 seasons in 2012 and 2013. After improving in each of the first three seasons under head coach Derek Mason, it’s possible the program is on track to get back to the level it showed under James Franklin.
But those two teams had dangerous offenses. And this one could, too.
If it does, all of a sudden, Vanderbilt could finally be a player.
Three Players to Watch
Since joining the Commodores in 2014, Webb has been the only consistent force on Derek Mason’s mediocre offenses. The 5’10" senior from Gainesville, Florida already is Vanderbilt’s all-time leading rusher with 3,347 rushing yards in his three seasons as the starting tailback. That number is already good for 20th all-time in the SEC. If he has a comparable season to 2016 (1,283 yards) he’ll be able to finish in the top three all-time in college football’s most prestigious conference. Webb has increased his productivity as his career has progressed and in 2016 he chipped in a career high 13 touchdowns.
Webb is also a receiving threat out of the backfield, averaging 22.5 catches for 177 yards receiving the past two seasons. WKU did a decent job containing Webb in last season’s game, holding him to 95 yards on 27 carries (3.5 yards per carry) but he did punish WKU on the goal-line, accumulating three touchdowns of four yards or less. The Tops’ defense must cut down on Webb’s production if they want to escape Nashville with a victory.
Vanderbilt is full of upperclassman across their starting line-up and White is a senior captain on their defense. The 5'10" senior from Louisville emerged as a quality playmaker at the strong safety position in 2016. He posted 75 tackles last season, good enough for third on the team. He also deflected six passes and forced two fumbles. In Vandy’s best wins, he posted 12 tackles against Georgia and 10 tackles against Tennessee. White will be called to replicate those efforts to stop WKU’s big play offense when they meet November 4th.
Quality teams usually have veterans signal callers leading them, and Shurmur is that presence on the Commodores. When Vanderbilt rallied to a 4–2 finish, it was no coincidence that Shurmur elevated his game. The 6'4" junior son of Minnesota Vikings offensive coordinator, Pat Shurmur, has football in his blood. When Shurmur played well, Vanderbilt usually won. He averaged 222 yards passing with a 56.4% completion percentage with a 7/2 touchdown to interception ratio. In Vandy’s seven losses, his numbers fell to 153 yards passing with a 51.8% completion percentage with a 2/8 touchdown to interception ratio. He rarely puts up huge numbers, but If he can play within himself and limit the turnovers, Vanderbilt should be able to replicate their solid 2016 season.
Preseason Thoughts about the Game
1. Rubber Match
This is the last game of a three-game series between two schools that are just 67 miles away from each other. Both games have been as close as can be thus far. The opening game of the 2015 season was decided on a Joe Brown goal-line stop in a 14–12 WKU win. Last season’s game was decided by one point (as mentioned earlier), and this year’s game will decide bragging rights for the foreseeable future with both teams being as even as possible. Vanderbilt will have the home field advantage and experience factor heading into this rubber match, but WKU once again has enough talent to get their fourth SEC victory since 2012.
2. WKU fan takeover of Vanderbilt Stadium: Part 2
During that 2015 game, WKU fans had arguably their best road attendance of all-time. They had close to half of the 30,307 fans in attendance at Vanderbilt Stadium that Thursday night.
The question for this game is if WKU fans will take over Vanderbilt stadium again? A lot could factor on how successful the Tops season is heading into that point. If WKU is 7–1 or 6–2, I fully expect a similar crowd to head down I-65. Erasing Vanderbilt’s home field advantage will go a long way towards WKU springing the upset.
3. Experienced Vanderbilt Team
During Mason’s first three seasons, he was forced to pick up the pieces of a senior laden team that propelled James Franklin to the Penn State job. The results that followed were predictable with records of 3–9, 4–8, 6–7. That gradual improvement combined, with 17 returning starters, has the Commodores confident that this team will be their best of the Mason era. Having a junior quarterback, senior running back and several key upperclassmen on defense should help Vanderbilt meet those expectations. The experience gap helped WKU play Vandy closer than most casual fans would expect the past two years. With WKU returning just 12 starters from last season’s C-USA championship squad, will this be the year that Vanderbilt’s superior talent and experience shows on the field?
4. Potential Statement Game for Program
If WKU is going to take the next step from annual Conference USA contender to one of the top programs in the Group of Five, they need to start beating Power 5 programs on a regular basis. Brohm’s only P5 win came in that 2015 game against Vandy. This is the second winnable P5 game on the schedule (Illinois) and a win here could vault WKU towards the Top 25 (or higher if undefeated). Sanford has stated the New Year’s Six access bowl is the goal for the program moving forward, and beating teams like Vanderbilt will help WKU achieve that goal.
5. Early November injury effects
By the time this game is played on November 4th, both team could be feeling the impact of being eight games into their seasons. WKU will be coming off challenging games against ODU and FAU while Vanderbilt will be neck deep into their SEC schedule, already having played games against Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Ole Miss and South Carolina. Whichever team is most healthy will probably have the advantage in this one, especially since both teams have proven evenly matched during their first two match-ups. Injuries will be something to monitor as this match-up gets closer.
Preseason Prediction
This is another game that going into the season that I believe is a toss-up. On paper, Vanderbilt is more talented, experienced and does have the home field advantage. Just like Illinois, I do believe this game is very winnable, especially since WKU has the obvious advantage in quarterback with White greatly exceeding Shurmur’s talents. Unfortunately, I see WKU losing two or three games somewhere along the way this season and those deficiencies give the Commodores just enough of an edge to win a close, low scoring victory. I think WKU gets the ball with enough time to get a go ahead score but a late turnover does them in during another nail-biting match-up between the Hilltoppers and Commodores.
Final Score Prediction- Vanderbilt 28 — WKU 27
Best places for Vanderbilt coverage as the game gets closer
Vanderbilt, being an elite private school, has a smaller following than every other school in the SEC. That can be seen with the coverage that you find online. The Tennessean (local paper) does a decent job of following the traditional media beat of the Commodores. They do have some decent recruiting websites including Vandysports.com (Rivals) and Vandy247. The Commodores do have a SB Nation blog called Anchor of Gold. You can also check out Vandy’s SEC Country page and Vandymania.com for coverage of Derek Mason’s squad before the game.
What do you think about WKU’s trip to Nashville? Will they be able to pull the upset? How would the win help their New Years Six prospects? Let us know in a comment below, via twitter at @TheTowelRackWKU or on our Facebook page.
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