Oct 6, 2017
WKU Football: WKU vs. UTEP Statistcal Preview
Ed. note — I’d like to welcome Matt McCay, who is our newest Towel Rack contributor. He’ll be on hand to take a deep, deep dive into football — a perspective we really haven’t had before — and I’m looking forward to what he’ll bring to our coverage. Give him a warm welcome!
First of all, who am I? I am a former WKU Football Equipment Manager (‘09-’14), WKU Graduate (‘14), and received my masters in Intercollegiate Athletic Administration in May of 2017. My entire family has gone to Western, and I am beyond proud to call myself a Topper.
Each week in Matt’s Stats, I’ll look at stats and make sense of them from a football perspective.
In General
WKU is a team that has struggled to run the ball and has given up 14 sacks on offense. All told, the bottom line is WKU scores 23 points per game. Defensively, the Tops do an above average job stopping the run, and are very average against the pass. However, red zone defense has been excellent, only allowing seven of 15 trips in the red zone to end in a TD.
UTEP is a team that has obviously struggled this year. They have had a prayer in only two of their five games. In general, they have struggled to move the ball; they have yet to gain 300 yards of offense in a single game and have yet to give up less than 400 yards in a game, giving up nearly as much on the ground as in the air.
However, in their last game against Army, they really were much better — losing only by 14, the Miners were in it most of the game, were able to run the ball very effectively and produced the most offense they had all year. They also held Army to the least amount of yards, and were close in Time of Possession.
Stats to Watch For
QB pressures/sacks
Anybody that pays attention to WKU football knows the offensive line has struggled. UTEP’s offensive line is actually really, really good for a team with zero wins. They’ve only given up 10 sacks in five games. Also, both defenses have four sacks each on the year. Neither team is used to getting pressure on the quarterback. If someone can, that creates an instant advantage.
Mike White has done a heck of a job, but he has seen a TON of extra pressure this year, especially from the edge. Whoever starts for UTEP (they have had several injuries and benchings) will be forced to make tough decisions if the D-Line can get some push up front. If UTEP creates problems up front, put the Tops on upset alert. If WKU can actually get some D-Line pressure, that would almost certainly mean a win coming back to BG.
Rushing Yardage
WKU averages 75 yards per game on the ground. That is abysmal. UTEP averages 62.8 ypg. That is appalling.
WKU is yet to have a 100 yard rusher all year. UTEP, however, has Quardraiz Wadley, who has rushed for over 200 yards the past two games. If WKU can hold their own, advantage WKU. If UTEP has a significant advantage, the defense is worn out, and they could dominate Time of Possession.
Time of Possession
The Tops are basically even in TOP. The Miners have gotten slaughtered in this stat, but again, with Wadley in the lineup, they are much more respectable in this area.
Honestly, if WKU doesn’t dominate time of possession, the offense will be doing everything it can to mess up. WKU needs a decent running game to be the odds-on favorite again to win C-USA. Every other area of the team is serviceable, but if WKU can’t finish games with a tough run every once in a while, every single game is a toss-up. Likewise, if UTEP can run the ball, they give themselves a chance to stay in every single game.
Red Zone Efficiency
WKU has been excellent keeping opponents out of the end zone. However, they have only kept them from scoring twice. Offensively, the Tops have been decent scoring TD’s, but nearly 1/3 of the time, they walk away with nothing.
Think of Ball State and La Tech: Those games are different with execution in the red zone. UTEP has only been in the red zone five times all year, but they’ve put up six every time. Their defense has allowed touchdowns on 20 of 22 drives, and forced a field goal once. Field goals are nice, and they make a difference at the end of the day, but once you march all the way down the field and get in the red zone, a field goal is a win for the defense. This is especially the case here.
If you want to see the story of seasons, look at the red zone offense and defense. If you can’t figure out why games are close, or why your team can’t score enough points, or why your defense can’t stop anybody, the answers probably in your red zone efficiency.
Prediction
From a WKU perspective, hopefully the Hilltoppers got their kinks work out and understand what Coach Sanford is asking for. That win against Ball State was not gorgeous, but it was really important to see some fight and execution in the clutch.
From a UTEP perspective, who knows what’s going to happen? Coaching changes are a big deal, but the personnel is not going to change in the middle of the year. They do have some talent in several areas and displayed some of it against Army, but overall, they have a ton of obstacles to overcome to squeak out more than a win or two.
I think WKU should absolutely win this game. Period. BUT, the Miners are good enough to win games. They have enough talent that if everything came together, they could have a chance beat some pretty good football teams.
To see my, and the rest of The Towel Rack’s predictions, check out or predictions from earlier this afternoon.
What are your keys for Saturday? What are the key stats you’ll be looking for? Let us know in a comment below, via Twitter at @TheTowelRackWKU or on our Facebook page.
