First Look: NFL Week 1 Over/Unders
A Breakdown of 3 Games Worth Investment
My top Over/Under plays as the lines sit this 4th of July weekend. Get 1 unit down on these games right now:
- BUF @ NYJ o38.5
- CIN @ SEA o43.5
- KC @ JAC o51.5
Buffalo at NY Jets. This was the first game that jumped out at me. The line opened at 38, which I loved. And I’m still smitten at 38.5. Last year, the Jets were 10–6–0 o/u, second only to my Chiefs (we’ll get to them later in the article). I’m picking the Jets as my dark horse to make the playoffs this season, and flex a little offensive muscle along the way. The Bills defense, meanwhile, gave up a whopping 78 points in weeks 1 and 2 last year combined! I have both these teams ranked lower than 25th in my preseason power rankings. (ASIDE: If you’re gonna handicap NFL games, either keep your power rankings or use someone else’s that get updated starting in August. Search NFL POWER RANKINGS for a plethora of options.) I see an AFC East track meet here, with the total flying OVER during the 3rd quarter.
I’m not promising free Bud Light or anything with my predictions, but let’s say that Bills-Jets game is a 24-can party pack right there.
Cincinnati @ Seattle. The information I’m getting right now is that the tickets on this game are split 50–50. Cincy was 8–6–2 and Seattle 10–7 (3rd behind KC and NYJ) o/u in 2018. The Bengals’ first 4 games last year soared over. Seattle did have two games that went massively under last season, but the other five were right there in the final quarter. It’s also a “put up or shut up” season for Andy Dalton. Favorite red zone target Tyler Eifert missed minicamp last month, but the team is being cautious with their would-be star tight end. All sources insist he’s on track and will be in the lineup Week 1. Play the OVER.
Head to Buffalo Wild Wings and grab a house sampler to go with your Bud Light draft. This is gonna be a fun one to watch.
Kansas City @ Jacksonville. So this is where the Chiefs run to the Super Bowl starts. A big one against the Jags. Good opponent. I don’t believe they have enough to corral the offense of mad genius Andy Reid. Kansas City has indeed improved its defensive unit. I don’t see the pieces settling into defined roles by week 1. It will be a higher scoring matchup than last year’s total of 44 (o/u 48). I predict the Chiefs to get it done on the road, 33–24. Take the OVER. And if you want a bonus pick, back the CHIEFS -3.5 as well.
The train is coming into the Palace Station, folks. Grab a Bud Light and get on board!
You can follow the author at twitter.com/PatAtThePalace.
