Characteristics of Kenya’s COVID-19 Curve and Containment Implications

Critical insights from mathematical modelling

Nashon J. Adero
Apr 14 · 6 min read

Key Highlights

Like a beckoning vista of mountain ranges, every move closer to winning this war reveals the scale masking the disguised distance setting apart the distant milestones.

As we all desire an end to the pandemic so as to enjoy free social interactions in the campestral beauty of our diverse open fields, welcoming and practising all the recommended containment measures must remain our first line of defence.

The wavy nature of the infections in Kenya has established a sinusoidal curve which reaches its peak every four months. Could this be telling of a fourth wave starting July 2021?

Global Overview

Africa and Kenya: Share of Active and Serious COVID-19 Cases

What the latest Data says about Kenya

Kenyatta International Convention Centre and the skyline epitomising Kenya’s capital, Nairobi

Insights from Models: Fourth Wave in July?

Normalised by population, the testing capacity across Africa is still far below the rest of the world’s.
Kenya’s actual COVID-19 cases in 2021 stayed near the simulated upper trajectory from February 26 to March 31, 2021. Actual cases confirmed on March 31 were 134,058, 2.7% below the model projection of 137,675 cases.

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Nashon J. Adero

Written by

A geospatial and systems modelling expert, lecturer, youth mentor and trained policy analyst, who applies system dynamics to model complex adaptive systems.

The Shadow

We publish inspiring stories about different topics for a productive and entertaining life

Nashon J. Adero

Written by

A geospatial and systems modelling expert, lecturer, youth mentor and trained policy analyst, who applies system dynamics to model complex adaptive systems.

The Shadow

We publish inspiring stories about different topics for a productive and entertaining life

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