Vladimir The Terrible.
The strange similarities between Putin and a 16th century invader named Ivan.
This article goes back to March 20, 2022, but still explains some things happening now that might otherwise go unexplained.
“Each new generation born is in effect an invasion of civilization by little barbarians.” Thomas Sowell
As invaders go, Vladimir Putin isn’t very inventive. When he recognized Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states last month, he was, in fact, mimicking the strategy of Ivan Vasilyevich, better known as Ivan the Terrible.
The two leaders, in fact, share an eerily similar vision of Russia. As the first czar, Ivan conceived a foreign policy that had two goals: to resist the Mongol Golden Horde, and to gain access to the Baltic Sea.
This would involve a lot of mayhem and death, not the least of which would include his own people.
Ultimately, he aimed to conquer all remaining independent regions and create a larger, more centralized Russia. This would involve a lot of mayhem and death, not the least of which would include his own people. How he accomplished this isn’t dissimilar to what Putin’s doing now.
Ivan decided he first needed a buffer zone, something he achieved by crushing the Tartar Khanates of Kazan and Astrakhan. This extended Muscovy control of the Urals in the east and the Caspian Sea in the south.
Putin’s concern today, needless to say, isn’t Mongol hordes. They haven’t been a problem for a long time. Still, Putin does see the Donbas as a buffer zone, with access to warm water ports on the Sea of Azov (what he really wants is Odessa, Ukraine’s largest port on the Black Sea).
To do this, Putin has convinced the Russian people that Ukraine is a serious threat to the communist ideal (nazification), requiring an invasion that’s already driven over 10 million Ukrainians from their homes, and killed thousands in the process.
Ivan the Terrible would’ve seen this as a major accomplishment, even if his own invasion of Lithuania, a country with ports on the Baltic Sea, was a consummate disaster.
It seems one of his closest advisors, Prince Kurbsky, defected to the Lithuanian side and, along with Poland and Sweden, crushed the Russian invaders.
Ukraine may not have a Prince Kurbsky, but they do have a Volodymyr Zelensky, a former comedian, dancer and lawyer. Putin, no doubt, underestimated the Ukraine leader, just as he did the Nato alliance itself. They’ve built up an impressive military defence in bordering countries, and imposed a level of sanctions now crippling the Russian economy.
They’ve fought back instead, thoroughly embarrassing Putin who isn’t used to being embarrassed.
It’s hard for Putin to spin this, especially when it was supposed to be an “easy” invasion, with many Ukrainians welcoming Russian troops with open arms. That didn’t happen, obviously. They’ve fought back instead, thoroughly embarrassing Putin who isn’t used to being embarrassed.
But let’s get back to other similarities between Ivan the Terrible and Vladimir the Terrible. Both men underestimated the resilience of countries they wanted to invade, and both lost thousands of men and arms in the process.
They also tended to think more of themselves than Russia. Ivan the Terrible was renowned for redistributing lands to his closest supporters, poisoning his opponents, and creating a police force called the Oprichniki, that dressed in black, and rode black horses. They crushed all dissent and terrorized villages across Russia.
Similarly, Putin has surrounded himself with state security, rounded up dissenters, and poisoned those who speak out against him, including his outspoken rival, Alexei Navalny (still in prison).
The recent suspected poisonings of oligarchs like Roman Abramovich during negotiations on March 3 and 4 is right out of Ivan the Terrible’s playbook, showing just how far Putin’s displeasure extends.
More and more oligarchs are leaving Putin’s inner circle, some defecting, others disappearing entirely.
As he said of Navalny, “Who needs him?” which seems to be the way he feels about a lot of people. More and more oligarchs are leaving Putin’s inner circle, some defecting, others disappearing entirely.
Then there’s the money. Ivan the Terrible robbed the Russian Treasury for years, accumulating enormous wealth. Many experts believe Putin is doing the same thing. There’s even talk he, and his inner circle (which includes Abramovich), have pillaged as much as eight percent of the military budget to purchase massive yachts and mansions outside of Russia.
Cypress is one known place where boats are sold for exorbitant prices — which doesn’t matter if you’re robbing the till.
It might even be why Russian troops are undersupplied and malnourished, although Putin would claim this is capitalist propaganda.
Many critics — including President Biden who called Putin a “butcher” — believe Putin may be surpassing Ivan the Terrible in terms of casualties and loss of military equipment.
There’s even talk — mutterings at best — that Putin should develop “the Kremlin Flu.” In politick speak, this means disappearing before he ends up before a war crimes tribunal in The Hague.
It’s not Putin’s style, though, any more than it was Ivan the Terrible’s. Ivan, fortunately, died of a stroke (not long after murdering his eldest son, and possibly his grandson). Putin still has the support of many Russians who believe he can return Russia to its former glory.
Making it worse is the fact that Russia still earns some $700m a day selling hydrocarbons to western countries and European states.
That may not be possible given the resistance of the Ukraine and worldwide condemnation.
Making it worse is the fact that Russia still earns some $700m a day selling hydrocarbons to western countries and European states. Until that particular financial tap is turned off, there’s no reason for Putin to stop his invasion, even if Ukraine is willing to make concessions, possibly a Donbas corridor.
That won’t be enough for Putin. Until the Russian people turn on him, he’ll still be Vladimir the Terrible, and his vision of a glorified Russia will still match — and exceed — anything Ivan the Terrible ever contemplated.
One thing for sure, Putin won’t be dropping dead any time soon. Not like Ivan who died at the age of 53. The “Kremlin Flu” still sounds interesting. It is flu season in Russia, and Putin might see it as a more dignified out.
Then again, being Putin, he’ll stick around. He’s curious, and curious men don’t leave until it’s absolutely necessary. It might be “necessary” sooner than he thinks. Or it might not. Until he’s told otherwise, he’s still the Russian president and, in his own mind, invincible.
Let’s see how long that lasts.
