Greenland Is A Transformational Economic Opportunity for the United States
I’ve often found that discussions around Greenland’s potential relationship with the United States evoke strong emotions and sharp opinions (mostly uninformed or quick to resort to emotions and wrong historical analogies. Why not? It is provocative.) But let’s move past the noise and focus on the data.
My position is not about invasion or imperialistic tendencies, I am against it. My position is a what-if scenario on why we should invest, If and only if Greenland, through its democratic processes and negotiations with Denmark, chooses to pursue closer ties with the U.S., this move would represent a strategic economic play. While Greenland enjoys autonomy in many areas, foreign affairs and defense are managed by Denmark. Such a monumental decision would require Greenlandic and Danish agreement, as well as U.S. congressional approval. For the U.S., this would be a chance to enhance its long-term economic and strategic position on the global stage.
Here is a deeper look at the metrics, data, and strategic considerations that highlight the value of Greenland.
Greenland Economy — A Comparison
Greenland’s economy, with its 60k population, remains relatively small, with a GDP of approximately $3.24 billion in 2021. In comparison, the U.S. economy operates on an entirely different scale, with a GDP of $29.17 trillion in 2024.
GDP per capita provides further context. Greenland’s was approximately $57,116 in 2024, while the U.S. reached a much higher figure of $86,600 in 2024. This disparity highlights the relative scale of economic output per individual in each region.
Greenland relies heavily on fishing and receives substantial subsidies from Denmark (nearly half a billion dollars every year or about 20% or Greenlands GDP), which make up nearly half of its government revenues. This dependence emphasizes challenges in achieving economic independence and diversification.
Meanwhile, the United States demonstrates economic breadth and resilience. With a growth rate of 2.8% in 2024 and low unemployment at 4.1% by December 2024, the U.S. maintains its position as a highly diversified and stable economy.
On the basis of these indicators, the U.S. economy clearly outperforms Greenland’s in per-capita, complexity, and resilience. However, Greenland’s strategic geographical location and untapped resources, particularly in minerals and energy, offer significant potential for future growth. Capturing this potential will require deliberate investment and infrastructure expansion, posing both challenges and opportunities for the region.
Denmark does not posses the capability for such large deliberate investment. This is the key consideration.
Following points will provide more depth on why this can be a strategic investment for USA.
1. Securing Strategic Resources
Greenland has some of the largest untapped reserves of rare earth minerals, including neodymium, dysprosium, and praseodymium. These materials are essential for technologies such as wind turbines, electric vehicles, and advanced defense systems. The United States is heavily reliant on imports, with 80 percent coming from China. Greenland’s resources could reduce this dependence substantially.
Metrics and Projections:
- Estimated Reserves: Greenland holds approximately 38.5 million metric tons of rare earth elements.
- Global Demand: The rare earth market is expected to reach $20 billion by 2030, driven by green energy transitions and rising technological needs.
- Economic Impact: Utilizing Greenland’s resources could create 150,000 jobs and add $25 billion annually to the U.S. economy.
Securing these minerals would improve U.S. leadership in clean energy technologies and reduce vulnerabilities in critical supply chains.
2. Unlocking Energy Independence
Greenland’s offshore basins contain significant reserves of oil and natural gas. These resources offer a way to enhance U.S. energy security while generating substantial revenue.
Metrics and Projections:
- Oil Reserves: Greenland’s reserves are estimated at 50 billion barrels of oil equivalent, valued at over $3 trillion at current prices.
- Natural Gas Potential: Comparable to Qatar’s North Field, Greenland may hold 10–20 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.
- Economic Impact: Developing these resources could generate $75–100 billion in annual revenue and create 200,000 jobs.
Exporting Greenland’s hydrocarbons would expand U.S. dominance in global energy markets, contributing an additional $40–60 billion annually to the trade balance.
3. Shipping and Trade ~ Maximizing Arctic Routes
As climate change opens new Arctic shipping lanes, Greenland’s geographic position becomes increasingly valuable. The Northern Sea Route offers a shorter and more efficient path for trade between Asia and Europe.
Metrics and Projections:
- Route Efficiency: The Northern Sea Route reduces shipping times by 40 percent compared to the Suez Canal.
- Economic Zone Expansion: Greenland’s exclusive economic zone spans over two million square kilometers, providing access to fisheries, hydrocarbons, and minerals valued at $1 trillion.
- Revenue Potential: Control over Arctic shipping routes could generate $20–30 billion annually in tariffs and logistics services.
Arctic trade is rapidly becoming a critical factor in global commerce, and Greenland would ensure the U.S. plays a central role.
4. Tourism
Greenland’s natural beauty and cultural heritage offer enormous potential for eco-tourism. As global travel trends shift toward sustainability, Greenland could attract significant investment in tourism infrastructure.
Metrics and Projections:
- Visitor Growth: Greenland currently attracts 100,000 tourists annually, with the potential to reach one million by 2040.
- Revenue Potential: Annual tourism revenues could grow from $200 million to $2 billion over the next two decades.
- Job Creation: Investments in tourism could create 10,000–20,000 direct and indirect jobs.
Focusing on eco-tourism and sustainable practices would allow Greenland to grow its economy while preserving its environment.
5. Scientific Research
Greenland offers unique opportunities for research in climate science, renewable energy, and Arctic ecosystems. Establishing research initiatives in Greenland could enhance U.S. leadership in these critical areas.
Metrics and Projections:
- Annual Research Investment: $1 billion in Arctic climate resilience, renewable energy, and ecosystem studies.
- Economic Benefits: Innovations in renewable energy could contribute $50 billion in economic value by 2050.
- Job Creation: Research initiatives could create 15,000–20,000 high-skilled positions.
These research opportunities would support cutting-edge advancements that address global challenges.
6. Defense and National Security
Greenland’s location makes it essential for Arctic defense. A stronger U.S. presence in the region would support national security and provide economic benefits.
Metrics and Projections:
- Defense Spending: Arctic-focused defense investments are projected to total $10 billion over the next decade.
- Cost Savings: Consolidating operations in the Arctic could save $1–2 billion annually.
- Job Creation: Expanding facilities like Thule Air Base could generate billions in economic activity and thousands of jobs.
Greenland’s role in U.S. defense strategy would also help protect critical trade routes and resources.
7. Fiscal Impact and Long-Term Investment
The upfront cost of acquiring or partnering with Greenland would be high, but the economic returns over time make it a worthwhile investment.
Metrics and Projections:
- Acquisition Cost: Estimated at $500 billion–$1 trillion based on historical precedents and strategic value.
- Annual Revenue Streams: Greenland’s resources, trade routes, and tourism could generate $100–150 billion annually.
- ROI Timeline: The investment could pay for itself within 10–15 years, with sustained benefits beyond that.
- Federal Revenue Contribution: Greenland’s economic activities could contribute $20–30 billion annually in federal tax revenue.
Investing in Greenland would yield long-term economic stability and strengthen the U.S. position as a global leader.
Final Considerations
Greenland represents an extraordinary opportunity for the United States to secure critical resources, dominate emerging trade routes, and foster innovation. Its economic value spans rare earth minerals, hydrocarbons, tourism, and research opportunities, making it a cornerstone of future growth. Any partnership must be pursued ethically, respecting Greenland’s sovereignty and focusing on sustainable development. If done right, Greenland could transform the U.S. economy and secure its global leadership for generations.
Disclaimer
As of this writing, Greenland’s Prime Minister, Múte Egede, seeks to engage with the United States to enhance defense and mining collaborations, emphasizing that such partnerships must align with Greenland’s autonomy and interests. This initiative follows President-elect Donald Trump’s renewed interest in acquiring Greenland, citing its strategic and mineral significance. Egede firmly stated that while Greenland is open to cooperation, it is not for sale and will determine its own path forward.
Egede has convened Greenland’s political leaders to develop a unified approach to U.S. interest, emphasizing the importance of Greenland’s independence in decisions regarding its land and future agreements. He expressed readiness to initiate dialogue with the incoming U.S. administration, focusing on mutually beneficial cooperation without compromising Greenland’s sovereignty.
The Prime Minister also highlighted Greenland’s desire for independence and self-determination, stating, “We don’t want to be Danish, we don’t want to be American. We want to be Greenlandic.” This sentiment reflects Greenland’s commitment to pursuing its own path while remaining open to international partnerships that respect its autonomy.