OSINT: A Proximate Reality and Its Use Case
Intelligence is not about truth and it is more accurate to think of intelligence as “proximate reality.” (Lowenthal, p 6).
But why not the truth? Truth is a term that implies that the end result is immutable and not only immutable, but the opposite outcome is false. Intelligence can not be immutable because it’s subject to change on the basis of a continual analysis of new information. Truth presents a black-and-white depiction of reality with no room for error and no way for new information to cause a direct change. Intelligence is a tradecraft concerned with approximating the likely outcome of a decision.
OS-INT(Open source Intelligence) is the classification of information as public and by which relevant publicly available information is collected and analyzed to support a decision-making process. This process is not about forecasting accurate predictions, intelligence produced by this process may reach the most accurate approximation while accounting for issues that can arise to change the approximation of that outcome.
Arriving at a Proximate Reality — Scenario Based Example
Scenario
Sending US troops to the southern border with the authority to use lethal force to stop illegal immigration and fentanyl trafficking.
1-Identifying Requirements
Describing the requirements entails describing the questions to which intelligence is anticipated to contribute. Requirements could refer to the acquisition of specific sorts of information.
Starbursting can help you clarify your research needs and find knowledge gaps. After settling on the idea, topic, or issue to be studied, brainstorm to identify the research questions that must be answered. The ability to ask the appropriate questions is a typical prerequisite for getting the proper answer.
Central Requirements Arrived at After Brainstorming
- How will the cartel and smugglers react to this approach by the US Government?
- Will the use of force alter migration patterns, and which regions along the border should be strengthened to accommodate shifting patterns?
- How effective will the increase in lethal force by the military be in limiting the flow of fentanyl?
NOTE
Every step of the analytical process will reveal cognitive limitations and intuitive traps, such as how I initially raised the question, “Have military soldiers ever been stationed with such authority at the border before?” It is not wise to presume that prior experiences will play a significant role in how operations will be managed in today’s environment.
2-Collection
Collection is directly related to requirements. Not every problem necessitates the same level of collecting assistance. The criteria are determined by the nature of the problem and the forms of collection that are accessible.
How much data should be gathered? Or, to put it in another perspective, does more data mean better intelligence? These questions have an uncertain solution. On the one hand, the more information gathered, the more probable it will include the necessary intelligence. On the other hand, not everything collected is of comparable value.
- How will the cartel and smugglers react to this approach by the US Government?
Information:
Propaganda has the ability to endanger the United States because US military personnel along the border can be depicted in a negative light; the Mexican cartel’s weaponisation of emotions is a common tactic. Mexican cartels can employ propaganda to persuade and influence Western media through controlled one-sided messages (which may or may not be true) delivered through mass and direct media channels. The cartels can profit from the fact that isolationist sentiments are growing among Americans while support for the US military is declining.
Increased use of drones for tactical and operational warfare by cartels can be used to dissuade US military troops.
Increased cross-border proliferation of firearms and ammunition would benefit both illicit dealers within the US and the cartel, as increased use of force in armed conflicts necessitates a steady supply of armament. The majority of the weapons used by the cartels are manufactured in the United States, but with heightened tensions at the border, additional avenues of obtaining firearms are likely to emerge.
Smugglers have an incentive to raise costs as a result of military use of force, which creates a sense of risk. Due to a lack of data, I am unable to create a graphical representation of the costs that immigrants pay to risk their lives to reach the United States. As migrants risk their lives in a high-risk zone, they are forced to resort to ever more desperate tactics, including possible criminal activity, to compensate for the price increase.
- Will the use of force alter migration patterns, and which regions along the border should be strengthened to accommodate shifting patterns?
Information:
Enforcement at the border, while present, fails to address the economic factors driving migration, such as the continuous demand for labor and high wages in the United States, and a plentiful labor supply with low wages in Mexico. It also neglects the existence of robust networks that aid and maintain undocumented border crossings, thereby evading enforcement efforts. In this context, it can be stated that the militarization of the border is unlikely to discourage undocumented migrants from entering, but rather will encourage them to adapt their strategies for crossing the border.
El Paso, the Rio Grande Valley, and Del Rio have the most migrant encounters along the southern border. If US military personnel expand their presence, these places may see a drop, thus it would be preferable to spread troops evenly.
- How effective will the increase in lethal force by the military be in limiting the flow of fentanyl?
Information:
Fentanyl is smuggled across the US-Mexico border in low-concentration, high-volume cargoes; kilogram seizures frequently include less than a 10% fentanyl concentration. According to the DEA, criminal organizations use major highway routes for transportation, with the most common method involving smuggling illicit drugs through U.S. legal points of entry in passenger cars with concealed sections or commingled with legitimate goods on tractor-trailers. Using force to impede the flow of narcotics like fentanyl would provide minimal benefit.
NOTE
Data collecting points are typically scarce, and it is critical to avoid politicized data and get information from official sources. There is no straightforward way to collect vital information that only individuals on the ground have access to without HUMINT sources. During this stage of the analytical process, the collection of all sources of intelligence is strongly encouraged.
3-Processing and Exploitation
Collection produces information, which must be processed and exploited before it can be classified as intelligence and distributed to analysts. Because the majority of data points have already been collected and analyzed, it is not necessary to return to this stage of the analytical process unless new information is required.
NOTE
Actual P&E choices will be determined by the relative significance of the concerns, available resources to undertake P&E, and, in certain cases, the ability to analyze and utilize the collected information.
4-Analysis and Production
Analysis and production is a comprehensive process that involves the integration of all available data, its thorough appraisal, and the subsequent analysis of this information. This process is not merely a collection of data, but rather a meticulous examination of various sources to derive meaningful insights. The ultimate goal is to generate intelligence products that can provide valuable information for decision-making. These products are often tailored to the specific needs of the users, and can range from briefings and reports to interactive dashboards and visualizations. The entire process of analysis and production is iterative, constantly evolving with the influx of new data, ensuring that the intelligence products remain relevant and timely.
Cone of Plausibility:
The Cone of Plausibility is a structured technique that employs essential drivers and assumptions to develop a range of plausible alternative scenarios that assist analysts and decision-makers in imagining possible futures and their consequences. The usefulness of the Cone of Plausibility rests in highlighting the factors that shape current and future events.
NOTE
What if?
What if is a useful strategy for alerting decision makers to an occurrence that could occur, even if it appears implausible at the moment. What if…
Analysis, produces awareness that prepares the mind to identify early indicators of a substantial shift, and it may allow the decision maker to plan for that eventuality.
What if Policy Interests change? If policy interests shift, it could alter the political landscape, potentially affecting the strategies employed at the southern border. This could lead to changes in the scenarios outlined.
What if Safety Factors improve? If safety considerations improve in the countries of origin for migrants, it could reduce the flow of migrants and narcotics at the southern border, potentially making scenarios 1 and 2 less likely.
What if the Mental Approach changes? Changes in mental strategy could alter how both migrants and authorities react to situations at the border. This could influence the outcomes of all scenarios.
What if Tech Defense capabilities increase? Enhancements in technological defense could strengthen border security, potentially reducing migrant flow and narcotics encounters (Scenario 2). However, it might not have a significant impact on deterring migrants and narcotics (Scenario 1).
What if Community Wellness improves? Improvements in community health could make migration less appealing, potentially reducing the likelihood of all scenarios.
What if there’s a Gradual Increase in migration? A gradual increase in migration could strain resources at the border over time, making the wild-card scenario more likely.
What if Semi-Stability is disrupted? Disruption of semi-stability could lead to either an increase or decrease in migrant flow and narcotics encounters, affecting all scenarios.
What if there’s more than a Limited Effect from military force? If military force has more than a minimal impact, it could significantly deter migrants and narcotics (contrary to Scenario 1), potentially leading to outcomes closer to Scenario 2.
What if conditions become less than Significant? If conditions at the border become less significant, it could reduce migrant flow and narcotics encounters (Scenario 2), but might not have a significant impact on deterring migrants and narcotics (Scenario 1).
What if Adequate Health deteriorates? Deterioration in adequate health could make migration more appealing, potentially increasing the likelihood of all scenarios.
5-Dissemination
Dissemination of intelligence refers to the process of distributing and sharing intelligence information that has been gathered and analyzed, to relevant stakeholders. These stakeholders could be decision-makers, law enforcement agencies, or other entities that can use this information for strategic, tactical, or operational purposes. The goal of intelligence dissemination is to ensure that the right information reaches the right people at the right time, enabling them to make informed decisions and take appropriate actions.
PROXIMATE REALITIES ARRIVED AT
- U.S. policy shifts and troop deployment may minimally impact migrant and fentanyl influx at the border.
- Enhanced border tech could strengthen security, potentially reducing migrant encounters and narcotics influx.
- Unexpected cartel activity shifts could trigger a narcotics and migrant surge, straining resources and risking border community destabilization.
NOTE
This process is known as the intelligence cycle and has seven steps, although for the sake of this scenario, 6-Consumption and 7-Feedback are unnecessary. Although it is a cyclical process, analysts will need to return to certain phases numerous times.
What OSINT Is Not!
The title “What OSINT Is Not” underscores the importance of understanding the distinct nature of Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) within the intelligence discipline. It’s crucial to recognize that while OSINT involves gathering and analyzing information from publicly available sources, it doesn’t encompass all forms of intelligence. For instance, a photograph falls under Imagery Intelligence (IMINT), while topographical or aerial maps are part of Geospatial Intelligence (GEOINT).
Misinterpretations of these disciplines can lead to a flawed foundation in the tradecraft. As emphasized by experts in the field, even cryptography, often referred to as “Steg,” is not OSINT. The primary purpose of OSINT, like all other intelligence disciplines, is to provide an approximate reality that aids analysts and policy or business makers in their decision-making processes. Therefore, it’s essential to use OSINT and other intelligence disciplines for their intended design and not blur the lines between them.
