30 Teams in 30 Days: Miami Heat
The NBA season is just thirty days away, on every single day I will drop a preview for each team with a prediction on how their season is going to go.
Offseason Report:
Signings: Tyler Herro (Rookie), KZ Okpala (Rookie), Meyers Leonard (Hassan Whiteside-Jimmy Butler four team trade deal), Jimmy Butler (Four team trade deal w/ Philly, Portland and the Clippers)
Departures: Josh Richardson (Traded to Philly), Ryan Anderson (Waived), Hassan Whiteside (Traded to Portland)
The Miami Heat pulled off a stunning free agency when the franchise looked hamstrung by weighty, ill-advised contracts. The Waiters and Johnson’ contracts were anchors on the Heat’s payroll which were not providing enough production. It felt like a big summer for the Heat as the possible last great chance for Pat Riley to orchestrate one last run before eventually retiring. Riley is 74 and is largely expected to retire within the next few years, his lengthy career in basketball has been hugely impressive but there is a general feeling that Riley will call it a day. The old Riley magic worked again during free agency as the Heat acquired one of the best two-way wings in the league in the form of Jimmy Butler, the franchise centrepiece which could be built around as Miami gears up for another run.
The start of Butler’s recruitment to the Heat begins with the man who the County is named after. Miami-Wade County is the adopted home of Dwyane Wade, the city’s prodigal son and three-time NBA champion. When Wade went back to Chicago, the city where he grew up, he established a friendship with Butler. The two players have kept tabs on each other over the last few years even as Butler has shuttled through three franchises in the space of three years, when it is was announced that Wade would retire at the end of the season, the Heat made it incredibly special. The Miami crowd embraced their son every single night as Wade poured out his heart for every single game. The last home game for Wade was truly amazing, it was a fitting goodbye for one of the greatest players of a generation, an MVP-calibre player who embraced the grind to become that type of player.
At the same time, Jimmy Butler was earning plaudits as the closer for the Sixers in tight, fraught play-off games. The best player in that Sixers’ run was Jimmy but he did not feel the adoration reserved for JoJo or Simmons. He wanted a place where he could build his own legacy and create his own team, the only thing which he has never had in his career for a serious period of time. On the Bulls, it was Rose’s team and in Minnesota, it felt like that the keys of the team were handed to KAT on draft night four years ago. Despite all of the plaudits and respect from other players, Jimmy has never landed in a place where he was the man, the defining player for a team. He had that for one season in Chicago as the team stumbled into a rebuild. Miami presented an opportunity for him to create a legacy for himself and build himself into the team’s folklore. The long goodbye for Dwyane Wade proved that Miami loved their heroes, Butler wanted to build a home where he could be loved in a similar manner.
Moreover, the Heat fit with his inner beliefs. Butler is a grinder with an insane work ethic who refuses to lose, Pat Riley built the Heat in the same mould. Every player comes to work and there is never acceptance of mediocrity. In Miami, Butler could become even better as a player while also becoming the leadership figure that Wade represented for the Heat for his career. It is very rare that a franchise has a perfect synergy with a player’s attitudes and yet Jimmy has found that in South Beach.
In terms of actual basketball, Jimmy will improve everything for Miami. He is the type of player who impacts every possession, the offence will become more efficient and the defence will become a lot more intense. Over the last two years, Butler has developed in the role of lead ball-handler. He has become incredibly comfortable in terms of running an offence and also when closing games. The Minnesota Timberwolves were a top-five offence during Butler’s tenure which speaks to the offensive efficiency which he generated from relatively limited talent. The showing against the Raptors indicate that Butler is a killer in the close, there is no doubt about whether he can be trusted down the stretch of a tight game. Jimmy Butler is a definite upgrade over Josh Richardson and I think he could be a potential MVP-candidate. The Heat will definitely be a play-off team.
The Heat also drafted an interesting player in the form of Tyler Herro who projects to be a deadly shooter from deep. Herro in his tenure at Kentucky showed an aptitude for shooting off screens with startling efficiency. It is entirely possible that Herro has a Landry Shamet type season where he comfortably adjusts to the professional level and becomes a valuable contributor for a contending team.
The Heat also did well by trading Hassan Whiteside to Portland. During the last few seasons, Whiteside has cut an unhappy figure as he became increasingly marginalised within the team. As Whiteside’s energy and hustle dropped, Erik Spolestra began to explore lineups involving Bam Adebayo instead. Moreover, Whiteside demanded a bigger role in the offence where he would have the freedom to stretch the floor. The drama culminated in Whiteside being benched in favour of Adebayo and it was a pressing issue for Miami. Whiteside’s production did not reflect a max contract player so there were relatively few interested parties. There was a real possibility that a malaise could have developed from the Whiteside saga which would affect the rest of the season. Miami did well by engineering a move for Whiteside as part of the Butler sign and trade.
Portland needed a starting big who could contribute during the period of time when Jusuf Nurkic is injured. Nurkic fractured his leg and it is likely that his rehab will be lengthy. The Blazers needed a centre who could help the Blazers compete during the regular season in the tough Western Conference. Neil Olshey is banking on the culture established by Dame invigorating Whiteside and helping the Marshall player back to his peak performance. Miami cleared space for Adebayo to be the unquestioned starting centre and got a bad contract off their books.
The Heat’s future is interesting. The team has a lot of bad contracts coming off the books in the next two off-seasons and there are a few interesting prospects that the Heat have developed. Justise Winslow has shown a lot of promise as a point forward who can move the ball and his shot has come along as well. I could see Winslow getting a lot of time at point guard this season so that the team can take full advantage of his skills. Bam Adebayo shows a lot of promise as an energy big man who rebounded well and used his athleticism to contest shots or to keep possessions alive. There is still a lot more versatility within Adebayo’s game providing that Erik Spolestra is able to tap into that talent. Adebayo’s deft touch suggests that he could develop his passing game and become a facilitator. Derrick Jones Jr has gone from being a pure dunker into being a rounded forward with plenty of room for development. The question regarding the youth project is what Riley chooses to do.
As previously stated, Riley is facing the end of his career and will want to have one last run in which the Heat can contend for a championship. It would the perfect end for a basketball executive who has ten rings to represent his long career with the Lakers, Knicks and Heat. The roster as presently constructed will be a play-off team that will easily win fifty games in the regular season but Pat Riley understands that the regular season is different to the post-season. In the post-season, every possession counts and star players who can deliver consistently are valued highly. The Heat could continue with their youth project or they could push their chips to the centre of the table and acquire another star.
A deal involving Dragic, James Johnson and KZ Opala would likely be a good enough offer to get Chris Paul from the Thunder. Paul is one of the premier names on the trading block as he has consistently been one of the best point guards over the last five years. He has the ability to score from everywhere efficiently while creating quality looks for his team-mates while playing pesky defence. There is a reason why CP3 is called the ‘Point God’ and his two-way play would improve the Heat innumerably. CP3 could be acquired for a few expiring contracts and a talented youngster if Riley wanted to make the deal. For all of Sam Presti’s talk, we know that nobody is untradeable on the Thunder. A deal will be made if the return is sufficient for the Oklahoma City Thunder. From that point onward, Miami would have two stars and a lot of other factors which make them an attractive free agency destination. It is possible that the Heat could pursue the common team-building model across the league, the Two + Depth model.
2020 does not have the stand-out stars except for Anthony Davis that 2019 or 2021 has but it does have a lot of valuable veteran contribtuors. Miami looking like a contender could convince veteran players like Eric Gordon to come and ply their trade in South Beach. Miami could feasibly build a team around CP3 and Butler which is versatile, deeply experienced and comfortable in the post-season. The Heat could roll their cap into 2021 where the free agency class is a lot juicier. Kawhi, Paul George and Giannis are some of the marquee names who could hit unrestricted free agency in 2021. A player acquisition of that calibre would instantly give the Heat serious championship credence. However, the Heat is on the clock. Butler and CP3 will only age and their effectiveness will only erode. The championship window is small and the team needs to start making inroads to the Finals now.
I think that the depth model makes a lot of sense but it could also be wise for Miami to pursue this model through free agency. The Toronto Raptors have three valuable veteran players on expiring contracts who could be acquired for the cost of a young player. A deal for a player like Serge Ibaka could be swung if the Heat sent out Dragic and a young player. Ibaka would instantly shore up Miami’s front-court and provide a veteran partner for Bam. The Heat could then look to add depth in the 2020 free agency. A player like Danilo Gallinari who is an efficient and versatile forward could be a difference maker for a team like the Heat. Kyle Lowry and Eric Gordon would likely fall into the same category of player. The experienced vet who knows their role and how to make a difference in the post-season. The Heat have the cap space to make that happen if they wanted to go all in on building a deep team. A potential starting lineup of Lowry/Gordon/Butler/Ibaka/Adebayo would be highly effective in a play-off environment. Each player can play both ends of the floor and has a history of performing in the play-offs. That lineup would have the blend of size, shooting, creativity and plenty of stopping power.
The last option for the Heat would be to wait until the 2021 free agency class so that a top-five player can be acquired. This type of strategy makes sense in terms of giving the Heat the top-end talent needed to win championships but it will mean that Jimmy Butler will be two years older by the contention window starts. Butler in two years is hard to predict, he has played a lot of minutes during the early part of his career and could be on the downturn in 2021. It makes sense for the Heat to build now while Butler can still produce an MVP-type season.
The Heat’s outlook for the season is pretty clear. Pat Riley has thrown his hat into the ring and the Heat will now definitely be a play-off team. I expect the Heat to win around forty five wins this year and be a tricky team to deal with in the play-offs. The Heat will be a tough match-up in the play-offs because of Miami’s gritty play and resilience in the face of more talented teams. The key point for Erik Spolestra is that Butler needs to be integrated carefully. At Butler’s last two stops, there have been clashes with team-mates or coaches which have been detrimental to team chemistry. The Heat cannot afford for Butler to become a disruptive figure as the margin for winning is already small.
