30 Teams in 30 Days: Washington Wizards
The NBA season is just thirty days away, on every single day I will drop a preview for each team with a prediction on how their season is going to go.
Offseason Report:
Signings: Rui Hachimura (Rookie), CJ Miles (Trade w/ Memphis involving Dwight Howard), (Jemerrio Jones, Moritz Wagner and Isaac Bonga as part of the Davis Trade), Isaiah Thomas, Justin Anderson, Davis Bertans
Departures: Tomas Satoransky (Sign and Trade w/ Chicago Bulls), Aaron White, Dwight Howard, Jonathan Simmons, Jabari Parker
The Wizards off-season was relatively quiet as they likely enter another rebuilding project, the main difference is that Tommy Shephard is now responsible for the project instead of Ernie Grunfeld. Ernie Grunfeld, who was GM of the Wizards for sixteen years, was a mainstay of the franchise and in some ways created the Wizards’ cap prison. The decision to let Otto Porter go to market and find himself an offer sheet was incredibly costly as it effectively destroyed the team’s future financial flexibility. It meant that Grunfeld had to constantly trade away first-round picks in order to add talent which could complement the dynamic back-court of Wall and Beal. The last straw for Grunfeld was the John Wall super-max which effectively makes him an untradeable asset.
John Wall as a player is one of the better point guards in the league but it does feel like the league is starting to pass him by. Wall’s athleticism will drastically fall after the injuries he has sustained to his left heel and Achilles tendon and for a player whose game is predicated on athleticism, that is a serious concern. Moreover, Wall has not displayed an ability to shoot the ball with any consistency which is worrying when it is considered that he will have to adapt his game without the quick-snap athletic ability he previously displayed. The Wizards’ season will likely revolve around trying to find a trade for Wall which will be incredibly difficult, the only franchise which I think would be stupid enough to make this deal would be the Hornets.
A deal involving any combination of Bismack Biyombo, Michael Kidd Gilchrist, Marvin Williams and a young player like Dwayne Bacon would match salary-wise and is desirable for both sides. The Hornets receive a bonafide star who will sell a lot of tickets as he is from North Carolina. This might seem like a little detail but it is worth noting that Michael Jordan is not cash-rich like other owners, he cannot necessarily stomach the losses that a trip in the doldrums will cause. In addition to this, the deal is low-risk and high-reward for the Hornets. The team acquires an All-Star calibre player when healthy for effectively salary cap filler. The Hornets do take on a long-term financial obligation with Wall, the super-max he signed is frankly scary but the Hornets are already financially committed to Terry Rozier for the long-term who is average. The Wizards get cap relief and a chance to build afresh around Bradley Beal. If you strip away Wall’s bad contract and the current expiring deals, there is a solid core for the Wizards to build around.
This deal would be tricky to achieve so it is entirely likely that Wall will be traded along with Bradley Beal who has been luke-warm on signing a new extension with the Wizards. The Wizards management have already put a maximum contract extension on the table but Beal has not accepted the deal as of yet and I fully expect him to become an unrestricted free agent in a two years. There is a common saying in the league, if a star player wants to see what his options are elsewhere, he is already gone. Beal’s response to the question of an extension indicates that he is not guaranteed to re-sign with the Wizards.
A Wall and Beal would reset the franchise to a blank slate while also netting assets in return. Bradley Beal had a fantastic year last season and is one of the premier 2 guards in the league, he will command a high price even if the Wizards are actively trying to move him.
The common trade touted is with the Miami Heat and taking on literally all of their bad contracts. The Heat have $50m tied up in various role players such as Dion Waiters and James Johnson. That could be used to fill the salary differential. The Heat would incentivise the deal by adding young prospects such as Tyler Herro and Justise Winslow as the appropriate return on asset for Beal.
The deal makes sense on either side. The Heat get another two stars to pair with Jimmy Butler so that the sunset of Pat Riley’s career is successful. Riley will not want to walk away from the Heat with the team trapped by the hard cap in mediocrity. The deal will also keep Butler happy who is known to quickly voice his misgivings about the front office. In terms of talent, the Heat would have one of the most dynamic trios in the league. It would be well balanced with each player being able to create shots and defend. The only issue would be whether Butler and Wall can co-exist with each other. The Wizards take the deal as it means that the team clears the long-term financial obligation of Wall and can reset for a slow rebuild.
In terms of basketball transactions in this off-season, the Wizards had a quiet off-season where youth was prioritised. The pick of Rui Hachimura is a solid step in the right direction as Hachimura has shown a well-rounded skillset in the college game which should translate to the NBA. Hachimura, a late bloomer, does not have any significant bad habits due to the fact he picked up the game late and has played in a country which prioritises fundamentals over individual creativity.
Hachimura does have some serious flaws in his game, the most concerning is that Hachimura lacks the explosive athleticism which makes him completely unplayable at the NBA level. Hachimura is a solid athlete whose game is predominantly built off his length and skillset. Rui has a 7'2 wingspan which he uses effectively to contest shots and close down scoring angles on defence which is incredibly useful for a team that is looking to build from the ground up. The questions regarding his athleticism is one thing which could switch Hachimura from the good tier to an All-Star level. Over the next season with the Wizards, he has to prove that he can live with the physicality of the league and have the ability to stay on the floor.
The Wizards managed to add two more promising young players who have plenty of potential for nothing. Isaac Bonga and Moritz Wagner were some of the flotsam in the mammoth Anthony Davis trade, the Lakers chose to move both players so that a max contract slot could have been maintained in free agency. The thinking behind the deal was smart, a core of Davis-LeBron-Kawhi would have been unstoppable and Pelinka made the right decision when it came to shifting Bonga and Wagner. The Wizards get two players with upside providing that they are developed correctly. Wagner could profile as a stretch five, a valuable commodity in today’s league while Bonga is a little more intriguing. Bonga is a 6'9 athlete who does not necessarily profile into one specific position, the blend of size and athleticism could theoretically mean that he can ably play three positions. He has already flashed play-making ability and an ability score inside. The key thing which the Wizards needs to work on is Bonga’s shooting. At present, Isaac is a spotty shooter who needs to become more consistent so that defences respect his shot.
The last player acquired by the Wizards was an incredibly solid acquisition, made possible by other teams’ dealings. Davis Bertans was shipped out by the Spurs so that Marcus Morris Sr could be signed, Senior reneged on the agreement and signed a deal with the Knicks instead. Bertans was a deadly four man for the Spurs last season. He shot a blistering 42% from last season and was vastly improved as a defender compared to his two prior seasons for the Spurs. He instantly improves the Wizards’ bench with steady shooting and competent play.
The Wizards’ season is somewhat uncertain. I fully expect the new front office to embrace a more process-oriented strategy and to make development a key priority, the serious question revolves around Bradley Beal. If Beal does not show any signs of re-signing, the Wizards should ensure that a framework for trade negotiations is worked upon. For a player like Beal who has improved year upon year and was an All-NBA player last season, the asking price must be a talented young player and a future asset. If Denver wanted to go all in on this season, they could choose to flip Gary Harris, a future first round pick and Mason Plumlee for Beal. Washington would satisfy all of the conditions above and could start a rebuild from ground zero in earnest.
