The Falling Star
When Carmelo Anthony joined the Oklahoma City Thunder during the off-season, many pundits believed that it was a smart move for the veteran forward. He had previously played in New York through various level of dysfunction, he had survived the bizarre leadership of Phil Jackson and the firing of the only decent coach that New York has had in a number of years, Mike Woodson. Carmelo also survived the constant changes in style and ugly off-court incidents such as the mistreatment of Knick legend, Charles Oakley so it seemed evident that the only way was up for Carmelo Anthony. OKC would be a new beginning for a player with a traditional grind-it-out style of play but had also flashed a lethal ability from three-point land. What went wrong?
The Oklahoma City crashed out of the playoffs to a resurgent Utah team led by the rookie Donovan Mitchell who looks like a star for the future. The Thunder were the supposed favourite in this series because of their star power, the combination of Russell Westbrook, Paul George and Carmelo Anthony was expected to beat Utah and be on their way to the Conference Semi-Finals. The reasons for the loss are clear, stagnant coaching, Westbrook struggling against the Stifle Tower, Rudy Gobert and the disappearance of Carmelo Anthony.
Carmelo Anthony has always been a talented scorer with a level of efficiency that was ridiculous when he was in rhythm and allowing the game to come to him. From Syracuse to Denver to New York, that was Carmelo’s hallmark, his abilities as a scorer. He has never been known for the other side of the ball, Carmelo has never been a good defender or a good playmaker but it was expected that he would bring this ability to OKC and provide another option who could heat up and decimate a defence. In theory, Oklahoma made perfect sense for Carmelo Anthony, there were two strong defensive wings who could carry him on the defensive end of the floor and also an otherwordly point guard who will drive into the lane and create uncontested three-point opportunities for a scorer like Carmelo to feast upon. There was even the hope that Carmelo would morph into a different form of his game, Carmelo would change from being the midrange master to ‘Olympic Melo’, a player who will score relentlessly and in buckets.
That being said, this never materialised and perhaps the first sign of this was during his very first interview as a Thunder player. When Erik Horne, a highly respected beat reporter asked the question if Melo would be prepared to come off the bench in a supporting role to Russell Westbrook or Paul George. Melo simply responded with ‘Who, me?” before smirking ever so slightly. Carmelo has always been known as a head-strong and highly determined player but during his first season with OKC, these traits have meant that he has struggled to play at the same level he has for a number of years. Carmelo has not changed his style of play to fit the needs of the team like Paul George has or even Steven Adams for that matter. Carmelo continues to play as if he is the star player for the Thunder and the number one option.
If anybody has watched a Thunder game this year, it is almost guaranteed that you would have seen a possession with Carmelo Anthony in which he takes a short dribble before taking a highly contested long two-point shot. Melo is hugely efficient from this range but it is the effect of the possession on the rest of the game. The long highly contested two-pointers slow the game down and stop the pacy attack that a player such as Russell Westbrook prefers. Westbrook is not good in half-court sets and therefore relies on his speed to beat defences, Carmelo’s grinding play is the antithesis of this relentless attacking of the basket. In the slowed-down atmosphere of the play-offs, it was expected that Carmelo would be a very useful tool for the Thunder as he would be an experienced bucket-getter. This hasn’t happened against Utah, Carmelo has shot 6–28 from three-point land which is 21.4% and is worse than Andre Roberson, a poor three-point shooter, shot against the Rockets last year during the first round of the playoffs.
This has been expected by most of the Thunder faithful, we have all feared a regression but it seems that our fears have been proved by this Jazz series. His scoring has taken an expected dip due to the fact he is now palying with Russell Westbrook and Paul George but his shooting percentage has also dropped. His true shooting percentage which accounts for free throws along with all in-game shots now lies at 50.2% compared to his career average of 54.2%. This 4% dip does not mean that much in isolation but when it is applied to a game-scenario, it means that he is 4% more likely to brick a shot instead of guiding the ball through the net. Furthermore, the advanced stats also show that Carmelo’s efficiency as a player on both sides of the ball has dropped hugely. Carmelo averages 20.3 PER for his career average but in a Thunder jersey the rating has cratered to just 12.7 PER. In a game context, this means that Carmelo is 7.6% less efficient on both ends of the floor in terms of scoring and defending.
However, in some ways the analytics skew the picture as it would indicate that Carmelo has dropped off massively and probably should not even be anywhere near the basketball court. Player efficiency rating as a statistic is limited in this manner as it does not account for things such as the team playstyle and the total impact of the player on the court. True shooting also has similar problems as it solely accounts for shooting percentages, it does not look at the defense of a player. Carmelo has still been somewhat effective and it should also be noted that the coaching staff have been trying to adjust his style of play all the year so it is likely that this have affected his efficiency for this year.
Moreover, playing Carmelo at the four was designed to give him a breather from playing against top-tier small forwards who would drain his energy on the defensive end. However, Carmelo seems to be too slow to play the four-position, he simply cannot keep up with players such as Kevin Love or Draymond Green who are much faster than he is and are also stronger due to the fact they have played this position for a number of years. It has just worn Carmelo’s body down and that could be put down to the coaching staff but he has to at least try to bring his offensive game even if he cannot defend a Kevin Love or LMA.
It is not that the Thunder do not have other options to play as a power forward, they have Jerami Grant who has excelled as a power forward/ centre off the bench. Jerami Grant is just 6"9 but he has a good motor and ridiculous athleticism which allows him to challenge shots and also drive to the rim and score. He is also 24 and brings a lot more energy to the Oklahoma City Thunder than Carmelo and will make a smart play for the team instead of continually looking for his own shot. In terms of overall talent level, Carmelo Anthony is a better player but Grant just fits better into the starting lineup with his energy and better defensive skills. The impact of Grant over Carmelo was proved during the Thunder’s last stand in Game 5, with Jerami Grant the Thunder cut the deficit from 25 to 0 in just 8:34.
Carmelo has also not changed in terms of attitude which has been a thorn in the side of the coaching staff. Carmelo has remained stubborn and still believes that he is the second or maybe even the primary option on the Thunder, he has not humbled himself like Dwyane Wade who understands his job as a high-level role player. It was evident during the 32–7 run against Utah in which Melo called to be brought back into the game, the Thunder then struggled and he then sat on the bench. I admire a player who wants to be involved but the player must also try to have the team’s best interests at heart.
Carmelo could have changed, he could have become a lethal shooter and the best third option in the league with the lack of responsibilities he has in OKC. Carmelo could have put to bed all of the stereotypes, “he’s selfish, he’s interested in only his play, Carmelo is not a team guy” but unfortunately this hasn’t happened. Carmelo has regressed badly and continues to play the same grinding play which is no longer as effective in an NBA which values a collective offense. It is almost certain that Melo will opt in and the Thunder will have to find some way to use a player who still believes he is a star. It is unknown how far Melo will fall but his star is definitely tumbling down.
