Thoughts on the Champions League Draw
The Champions League draw today provided entertaining match-ups that are fairly balanced across the board. The stand-out fixture across the quarter-finals is obviously Manchester City vs Tottenham Hotspur as both teams have the ability to beat any given team on any given day due to the quality of coaching that both teams have at their disposal. Guardiola is world-renowned for playing a winning brand of football, the possession-based approach has won him league titles in Germany, Spain and England. Mauricio Pochettino has consistently brought along players and has brought the right kind of player who can fit into his attacking system. Spurs’ system runs through its midfield creators but Pochettino has done incredibly well tactically in using the ability of Son and Moura to provide other options than just Harry Kane. That being said, let’s examine all of the fixtures within this round of the Champions League.
Ajax vs Juventus
In terms of talent, Juventus arguably have one of the most experienced teams remaining in the competition in terms of being seasoned European competitors. Juventus has made two Finals in the last four years and now has acquired the ultimate weapon. The signing of Cristiano Ronaldo was seismic, it was not only the most expensive signing in the history of Italian football but it was also a statement of intent. Cristiano Ronaldo has been one of the most successful players in the history of the Champions League, he has scored 124 goals over his career and has won four Champions League titles in the last five years. In terms of level of winning, this has only been matched by the Puskas/Di Stefano teams of the 1950s. For a team like Juventus that has struggled to get over the hump for the last few years, Ronaldo provided the cutting edge that had been there and performed in the pressure situations.
At the complete opposite end of the spectrum, Ajax have a team that is driven by a core of young players that caused one of the most memorable upsets in the Champions League. The Champions League is a competition in which upset games are not uncommon, Chelsea vs Bayern Munich in the 2012 Final and Roma vs Barcelona last season are both great examples. However, Ajax’s upset of Real Madrid was hugely impressive in terms of the dominance that they displayed and the calibre of opponents that Ajax dispatched. Real Madrid are serial winners of the Champions League. Ramos, Carvajal and Bale have all won multiple Champions League and know how to bring their game up to the highest level for when it most matters. This did not bother Ajax one bit as they routed Real Madrid 4–1.
Ajax strength comes from its talented youngsters, Frenkie De Jong and Matthis de Ligt are the two foremost young players who have been elevated by European football. De Jong has looked incredibly comfortable on the ball and every bit of the £60-odd million that Barcelona have paid for him, de Ligt showed that he was a rock at the back in terms of slowing down Real Madrid. The team has been driven off this youthful fearlessness but also veteran leadership who can keep the mood even and perform regardless of any pressures. Daley Blind, Klass Jan Huntelaar and Dusan Tadic are just some of the veteran players that play for Ajax, all players are experienced in pressure situations and can deal with difficult situations.
In terms of the overall balance of the match itself, the bias has to go toward Juventus. Allegri is an adept coach in terms of setting a team up for European games, he will set the team up to capitalise on any mistakes by Ajax away from home before dragging Ajax into deep water at Juventus Stadium in Turin. Ajax are a great young side but I do feel that it is too early for this young team, they need more experience in European competition before they can be taken seriously as contenders to win the Champions League. Overall, I expect Juventus to beat Ajax.
Liverpool vs Porto
The Champions League draw often works in funny ways in the sense that teams can be matched against teams who they played in the prior season’s knock-out stages. Arsenal played Bayern Munich and lost 10–2 on aggregate, Liverpool and Chelsea put on a classic series of Champions League games from 2005–2008 and again, there are two teams that are familiar with each other matching up. Liverpool and Porto met in the Round of 16 last season in a fixture where Liverpool dominated Porto and won the tie 5–0 on aggregate. Last season, it seemed that Porto could not keep pace with a Liverpool side that played with unbridled intensity and was riding the hot hand of Salah.
The balance of the fixture is more even than what last season had indicated, Porto had a few important players like Casillas and Aboubaker who missed the first leg of the tie where Liverpool scored 5–0 and effectively ended the tie. Moreover, Porto have pushed in terms of internal development and become a better team. Militao has played at a high level this year which could be reflected in the fact that Real Madrid have just purchased Militao for £42.7m. It is not hard to see Porto taking advantages of Liverpool’s sloppy passing in order to create great attacking opportunities, that being said Liverpool are an ascendant force right now that will be hard to stop.
As a team, Liverpool have improved massively since the heartbreak in Kyiv. The additions of Fabinho, Shaqiri and Keita have provided much needed depth and another element to the team. Fabinho especially has been big for Liverpool, for my money he has been Liverpool’s best player for the last two months. Fabinho has shown the ability to win the ball back effortlessly before finding an outlet ball into the channels that Salah or Mane can run onto, it has meant that Liverpool do not need to play through teams as they did last season. Moreover, Sadio Mane has hit a rich vein of form in which he is seemingly scoring goals for fun. Mane has 9 goals in his last 10 appearances for Liverpool, all of which has been important goals in what has been a historic season. He is a streaky player but when he is on, he will score a ton of goals at a blistering rate. Overall, I can see Liverpool winning this tie at Anfield as they did in the prior season. The players will be up for dispatching Porto ruthlessly given the fact that they are riding a wave of confidence following the Bayern Munich win.
Tottenham Hotspur vs Manchester City
This game is the most intriguing out of the QF ties for the fact that both teams know each other incredibly well and will target each other’s weaknesses over and over again. Moreover, both teams have had incredible domestic campaigns in which they have pushed through what was thought to be possible by a single team. Spurs have continually improved which is a strange thing to say when considering that Spurs did not purchase anybody in the summer or January window, they have stuck with the same group of players that have been at the club for three or four years. Some of the improvement has come from the fact that Spurs have needed players to step when Harry Kane and Dele Alli have been injured. As a result of this, Spurs have become more fluent as a whole, there doesn’t seem to be as much of a focus of purely getting the ball to Harry Kane and letting him work. The nucleus of Eriksen, Son, Alli and Kane now operate more democratically which has made Spurs a lot more balanced and reduced some of the burden that Harry Kane has struggled with over the last few years. Don’t get it twisted, Spurs still need Harry Kane’s goals but the emergence of Son as a legitimate second scoring option has created a safety valve within the offence.
However, Spurs do not have an easy challenge ahead of them. Manchester City are arguably the best team in Europe and have been dominant over the last 18 months, there have been very few teams that have taken the scalp of Man City. Guardiola has recruited the right personnel to play within his philosophy of football which is simply wave after wave of attacks. The common misconception about City is that they pass the ball around aimlessly and will break the concentration of the opponent. This is not the truth, Manchester City play direct attacking football that goes for the jugular from minute one. As systems go it is incredibly effective and the talent available to Guardiola acts a force multiplier, players like De Bruyne and David Silva are always efficient in possession and create great chances for Aguero or Sterling to finish.
There are distinct weaknesses on both sides, for Spurs the weakness is mental strength. Time after time, we have seen Spurs charge into great positions only to lose their way and lose games. This has been common in the Premier League over the last three season but a great example of Spurs falling at the final hurdle would be the Round of 16 fixture against Juventus last season. In the first leg, Spurs went 1–0 up at Wembley and was in the stronger position as they sought to make the quarter finals however inexplicably Spurs lost their head. Juventus made a tactical adjustment to bring the full-backs further up the pitch and Spurs could not cope, conceding two goals to Juve. It meant that Spurs lost a tie that was eminently winnable. Manchester City’s weaknesses are also mental, the team struggles in European competition when they go a goal down. This was evident in the Liverpool tie last season. Manchester City seemingly forgot how to defend which meant that the score was 3–0 after the first-half of football in the first leg. They gave themselves a hole that would be difficult to drag themselves out of. Overall, I can see Spurs edging the fixture as they are less fatigued than City and City’s struggles with depth are real concerns in regards to their Champions League progress.
Barcelona vs Manchester United
Barcelona vs Manchester United is another battle of European heavyweights, both teams have won the European Cup a combined eight times. Barcelona and United both faced off in the Champions League Final in 2009 and 2011 with Barcelona prevailing both times due to Messi magic and the superb Andres Iniesta. Manchester United had won the Champions League in 2008 but today both teams look incredibly different.
Barcelona are at the tail end of a footballing dynasty in which they have dominated Spain and won four Champions League trophies from the period 2006-Present. In terms of European dominance, there are very few parallels in the modern era with the exception being Real Madrid and the AC Milan team that won two Champions League titles over a period of five years. However in present day, the architects of Barca’s European success have all but departed. Iniesta nows plays in Japan, Xavi has retired, only Messi and Suarez remain from the dynamic Barcelona offence. Barcelona still have loyal club servants in the form of Pique, Messi, Alba but the style of play has changed drastically around this core of player. The departure of Iniesta has meant that Barcelona have become direct and rely more on Messi to make chances for Suarez and Dembele. In effect, Messi has reverted to the role that he played behind Ronaldinho and Ibrahimovic instead of the wing role that he occupied in the time of ‘MSN’. It is hard to predict Barcelona’s future after this season for the fact that the core of players is old in football terms and the younger core is still unknown. Messi, Suarez, Vidal and Busquets are all on the wrong side of 30 and players like Philippe Coutinho and Artur Melo are yet to display that they can do the business on Europe’s highest stage.
Manchester United have also undergone a lot of change since the 2011 Final. Only Antonio Valencia remains from the squad and he does not play all that much for a United team that is committed to the future rather than the past. In the past eight years, Manchester United have undergone the fall of a dynasty, the ‘Gaalaticos’ era and arguably the moodiest man in football and yet there seems to be real hope around the club again. The appointment of Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has lifted spirits of every player at the club, they no longer fear public criticism from a manager who fell out with players on a regular basis. OGS has won 13 out of 15 games as Utd manager and has led the club past a talented PSG with Lukaku, Rashford and Mason Greenwood. The achievement is deeply impressive and it has to be assumed that this will give United a lot of confidence going forward in the Champions League.
The match does swing Barcelona’s way based off pure experience and the fact that they have one of the greatest players in football, a true magic-man who can create out of nothing. However, it would be ill-judged to write Manchester United off, the pace that Manchester United have played with since the appointment of OGS will cause Barcelona plenty of issues and the momentum that United have gained does lend credence to the idea of an upset. I feel that United will snatch this tie, the team is rolling right now and very few teams have managed to stop Manchester United having their way offensively and defensively.
