Toronto Raptors vs Golden State Warriors Finals Preview
Toronto and Golden State has a series that has been teased for years, it has been expected that Toronto would wait out the Cavs and eventually succeed from the Eastern Conference. It was the franchise that was in pole position regarding being set-up to run the table in the East in a post-LeBron era, the only thing that has changed from the Raptors is Kawhi Leonard. Leonard has elevated the Raptors from being a great side to be a contender who can look across the table at the Warriors and not feel totally inadequate.
The one similarity between the two teams is that both teams have gone through adversity during this post-season and come out on top. The Raptors on multiple occasions have looked fractured offensively and set for another early exit before they righted the ship. The Raptors’ bouts with the Sixers and the Bucks have strengthened the side hugely mentally. The ability to win close series and win the marginal battle eluded the Raptors for a number of years, they always seemed to be second best by a small margin. In the regular season, small margin aspects of the game are not as important, teams plan for the breadth of an NBA season, they do not plan for individual match-ups. This is one of the reasons why the Raptors became unstuck year after year in the play-offs, the players were not used to focusing on the little things and therefore they struggled in the play-offs. The only player who focused on these aspects was Lowry and one man cannot do it alone, it would be impossible for a team to succeed with just one person fully pulling their weight on both ends of the floor.
The acquisition of veteran players in the form of Danny Green, Marc Gasol and Kawhi Leonard have brought a different perspective to a Toronto core that has largely been comfortable with a certain way of doing things. All three players have come from winning cultures in which details are key to success. Coach Pop and the Spurs had to build a roster that was full of intelligent players who never turned the ball over and operated as a team as the core of the team was old, they did not have the luxury of being able to focus on one core physical attribute and using that as the basis of an offensive scheme.
Gasol in Memphis came from a similar team culture due to their commitment to gritty defence. Defence is arguably harder than offence as it requires buy-in from the entire team in terms of making sure that each defensive rotation is perfect and that there is another line of defence prepared in case an opponent beats the first man. Gasol being a rim protector who did not have outstanding athleticism had to focus on the little details, he could not block the ball into the first row. He had to learn opponent’s tendencies and then apply this to his play. The deeper focus and commitment to the details has made Toronto formidable in the play-offs. The Raptors under Masai Ujiri’s direction has built an NBA team that has a wealth of experience and the play-off experience that will be invaluable against a team like the Warriors who are so good in pressure situations.
The Warriors have also undergone adversity during this play-off run, they lost both DeMarcus Cousins and Kevin Durant against the Clippers and Houston. For the Warriors, they have had to go back to the past with Steph Curry driving the offence and Draymond being the defensive maestro that they were during the pre-KD era. They had to play tough series against the Clippers and the Rockets who took games off the Warriors and pushed them into difficult situations. For the first time in five years, the Warriors seem mortal as they do not have a distinct depth or star power advantage. In the first two years of the run, the Warriors have the type of depth that was the envy of the league. Players like Leandro Barbosa, Marreese Speights, Brandon Rush, Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston made up a talented bench units that could grow leads while the starters rested. That particular unit could score the ball, defend well while also being able to operate in pressure situations. That Warriors’ unit could have been a starting five for at least five other teams in the league.
After the signing of Durant, the Warriors’ team-building method switched from collective strength to having better top-end talent that anybody else in the league. As a collection of talent, the Warriors were unparalleled, they had two MVPs, a DPOY and one of the greatest shooters available in the form of Klay Thompson. The ability for any one of these four players to take over meant that the Warriors had a valuable play-off asset, the ability for one of the four players to take over and win play-off games by themselves. Moreover, having four incredibly talented players stretches defences out, they cannot key in on one key guy for the fear that the other player goes incendiary. The Warriors’ in this post-season do not have that luxury, going into the NBA Finals this season is that the Warriors do not have Durant nor a depth of bench talent.
The Warriors’ bench this year performed against Portland to a high level but the bench is aging and has unproven players at the highest level. Alfonso McKinnie and Jonas Jerebko are both talented basketball players and were valuable contributors during the last series against Portland but they have had inconsistent seasons. The two veteran pieces of the Warriors, Shaun Livingston and Andre Iguodala have also changed in terms of their role and ability. Iggy being moved into the starting lineup has weakened the bench to a significant degree, there is no longer a do-it all forward that the Warriors can rely on to wreak havoc off the bench. Shaun Livingston is another 16-game player who seems to be wringing every last drop of play-off ability out of his body. Livingston is now 33 and is not as efficient as he previously was on the offensive end. The shallow bench presents a problem for Golden State.
In terms of talent, the Warriors starting five edges out the Raptors. The Warriors have three outstanding players in their first five compared to the Raptors’ one in the form of Kawhi Leonard. The original Big Three had been superb over the last seven games in terms of working together as a unit. Curry has provided the shot creation, Draymond has been a wrecking ball on defence while Klay Thompson continues to make a case for why he is one of the premier two-way players in the league. Thompson’s game is not as varied as Curry’s but it has been refined to the point where it is devastating, he comes off screens to shoot tough shots while having the responsibility of being the defensive stopper on the perimeter. A lot has been made of Curry’s scoring and Draymond’s aggressive defence over the last two weeks but Klay’s contributions are invaluable in terms of mucking up defensive possessions and being a reliable scorer. The Warriors’ core are stunningly effective despite not having the bucket-getting ability of Kevin Durant on their team, over the last five years the core of Curry/Green/Klay has gone 34–4 in the play-offs.
The Raptors have the talent level to make the series tricky for the Warriors but they do not have other outstanding players in the starting five who can present match-up issues outside of Kawhi Leonard. Kyle Lowry is a point guard who does all of the little things extremely well but he has been inconsistent during this post-season run as has Marc Gasol. On paper, the intensity of Lowry and Gasol’s defensive ability can turn the series on its head but we have not seen these performances on a consistent basis over a large sample of games. For the majority of the play-offs, the Raptors have started and ended with Kawhi Leonard’s ability to get a bucket when it matters.
The interesting battle in this series will be between the coaches. Nick Nurse has shown that he is not afraid to make adjustments when it matters such as making Leonard the primary defender on Giannis in the last series. In most cases, Nick Nurse has been successful with his adjustment however game-planning for the Warriors is a different beast. The Warriors move the ball so quickly amongst their players and are constantly in motion whether than be cutting, screening or relocating, it is hard to defend a team that does not stand still. Nurse will have to think about how to prevent defensive mismatches occurring as the Warriors run defenders through screens. Danny Green will likely be the primary defender on Stephen Curry but how does Nurse keep a body attached to Curry at all times and play physical defence? The Warriors have some of the best screeners in the league in terms of creating space for a player like Curry to work, for a defence it almost incentivises a switch everything strategy. The issue with this is that it could create serious mismatches which is where Draymond Green makes his money, he is adept at exploiting mismatches with his passing and scoring.
For the Warriors, they have to work out how to slow down Kawhi Leonard. Leonard has had one of the best play-off runs in memory, he has been supernatural defensively and amazing on offence. Kawhi has been a big part of the Raptors’ offence, the Warriors need to take away Kawhi’s impact offensively in order to take control of the series. The Warriors would be smart to mix up the coverages with Iguodala, Thompson and Green all taking a turn on Leonard as the primary defender. The help defender will need to rotate over quickly and create a 2–1 situation in which Leonard cannot beat the defence. The Warriors’ primary defensive scheming needs to focus on forcing the other Raptors’ to try and win the series instead of letting Kawhi do work.
In terms of a series prediction, I think that the Warriors will win the series in 6. They just have too much talent and experience for the Raptors to overcome despite Leonard playing a hybrid of Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen.
