UFC 246 Preview:
The UFC have started the year strongly with the return of one of the company’s most polarising fighters. Conor McGregor is a fallen star, he rose to the top of the back of quick wits and a face destroying left hand before dropping into the abyss. McGregor believed his own hype and the ego grew hugely as he insulted Khabib’s religion, Mayweather’s race and used geopolitics to destabilise his opponents. Each incident went unchecked by Dana White who did not want to kill the Golden Goose, the one fighter who could bring huge amounts of PPV buys to an event. Despite White’s protestations, the UFC have not managed to adequately replace McGregor as the ‘A’ Grade athlete who brought home the bacon.
In the excesses of wealth, debauchery and violence came about quickly. Conor believed he was untouchable because nobody had stood up to him previously. The UFC even refused to punish McGregor as he assaulted other company fighters with his heinous attack on the bus using the heavy, steel doily. These actions did not slow McGregor’s role, in fact it seemed to push him further. He was plain wrong in how he has behaved over the last few years and it all came to a head with the sexual assault allegations, that was first reported by the New York Times.
All of the McGregor support dried up and he was a social pariah. The sexual assault allegations still have not been cleared and McGregor is still being investigated for the allegations that he assaulted a woman on December 8th at a Dublin hotel. The Irish media are not allowed to report the name of the person who is being investigated but the New York Times have no such restrictions and therefore published McGregor’s name in the allegations. It seemed that Conor McGregor was dead and buried as a fighter and public personality, it is almost impossible for a fighter to regain any form of public image after severe allegations like this. The punch thrown at an elderly patron in a Dublin pub was a footnote in the nadir of his career.
Questions need to be asked of the UFC in regards to booking a fight for a fighter who may have committed sexual assault. It has been obvious that the UFC play fast and loose with morals if it will directly lead to profits for the company but I do not think that anybody believed that the UFC would continue to condone Conor’s behaviour. The decision taken by the UFC to book McGregor before the allegations have been properly investigated by the appropriate is shocking but the actual fight coming about was also surprising.
Conor has a history of making fight promises to the MMA media without actual following through on these promises. It has happened multiple times over the last few years and therefore when the ember of a fight against Cowboy appeared, many were quick to dismiss it. It was simply seen as a former fighter struggling to gain public attention and restore some form of his notoriety. When the match-up was finally announced, it was the first time in a long time where McGregor had honoured the promises he has made publicly.
The choice of opponent was widely derided for a number of reasons. Donald Cerrone is a classic fighter and a fan favourite for his love of fighting. He has not stopped for the last five years as he had fought a murderer’s row of high-level fighters, he has always been game despite facing tough opponents. There are few people who have the list of scalps that Donald has and his style makes fights entertaining for fans. He likes to fight, he is not the type of fighter to treat the match like a BJJ exhibition and simply out-point the opponent. He wants to get into the pocket and scrap with opponents even though Cowboy has a well-rounded, versatile ground game that can be a nightmare for strikers.
Cowboy has been a loyal soldier to the UFC throughout his tenure with the company, the only time when his warm relationship with Dana White was threatened was when Donald publicly backed a union for mixed martial artists under the UFC banner. White was displeased by these statements but he respected Cerrone enough to understand where their differences lay. Cerrone has been a company man through and through much like Michael Bisping and Forrest Griffin before him. He received the ultimate reward for all of his exertions for the UFC with a fight against Conor McGregor, the company’s biggest draw.
In a strange way, it feels like Michael Bisping’s fight against Anderson Silva. A reward for a UFC loyalist for their years of hard service. The comparisons with that fight end here, McGregor should be better at this stage of his career than an Anderson Silva who had not won for five years if the no contest against Nick Diaz is considered. I do not expect Cerrone to get a title shot should he beat Conor, the top of the 170-pound division is already full of hungry, willing contenders. Kamaru Usman holds the title for now after he dealt with Colby Covington but athletes like Tyron Woodley, Leon Edwards and Jorge Masvidal will be in the mix for a title shot.
The fight week started in a way that was unusual for McGregor. There was no jibes or cutting remarks directed to his opponent, a complete lack of mental warfare from a fighter who is known for dragging his rival into deep waters before they get into the cage. McGregor broke both Jose Aldo and Chad Mendes before the cage door was locked in, he made them hate him and his arrogance. The replacement for the brash aggression was a syrupy soft interview with Ariel Helwani that tip-toed around difficult subjects. All of the talk coming into fight week has revolved around Conor being a changed man mentally, a more mature athlete who is done with excess.
It would be prudent to take these words as just words but it does give some indication into McGregor’s mind-set coming into a huge fight. No mistake should be made, a win against Donald Cerrone proves that he can still hang with top-level fighters, a loss would suggest that retirement would be a better course of action just so that the remnants of fearsome reputation can be protected. He has been candid about his failings coming into the Khabib, about a lack of focus when it comes to training.
In the immediate aftermath of a devastating loss at the hands of the Dagestani Destroyer, McGregor took to Instagram and blamed Coach Kavanagh for not preparing him correctly for the fight. It seemed like a lengthy, productive association between the two men was coming to an end as Conor appeared to be done with Mixed Martial Arts for good. In the interviews leading up to the press conference, he has taken responsibility for having poor preparation in arguably the biggest fight of his career to date.
The press conference has been Conor’s domain since he has entered the UFC. It has been the place where he has dissected opponents, sold fights and generated huge crowd buzz. In the run-up to UFC 194, the crowd at the media session was ridiculous. The Irish wave enveloped the arena and a simple presser felt like a football match with its atmosphere and intensity. Conor stoked that atmosphere with bold promises and braggadacio. The contrast between UFC 194 and UFC 246 could not be starker. McGregor walked calmly to the stage and shook hands respectfully with Cowboy Cerrone. There was no bottle throwing nor any overt aggression display to his rival. Even his choice of dress was more subdued, there was no bright purple suit like in the run-up to the Khabib. Conor had opted for a more austere grey suit that fit neatly with the image he is trying to present.
Cowboy was himself and did not seem fazed by the occasion. He was contrite with answer and complimented McGregor’s accomplishments frequently during the press conference. There does seem to be a lot of respect between the two men which is strange compared to all of McGregor’s previous fights. Cowboy would never admit this but it does seem that he is grateful for the UFC and Conor for providing the biggest pay-check of his career, it is just compensation for a hard career in which Donald Cerrone had been a stalwart for the company.
The meat of the match-up, the fight itself will be an interesting battle between two of the sport’s most exciting fighters. Conor McGregor has consistently been a draw for the UFC as he loves to keep the fight standing and has come up with huge moments inside of the cage. The Aldo knock-out, the complete domination of Eddie Alvarez and the Diaz fight have all been immortalised in UFC history. These were big fights that felt how a big fight should feel, there was plenty of anticipation for these fights and Conor delivered the goods with entertaining fights. Cowboy has been an exciting fighter since he came into the UFC from World Extreme Cagefighting at the start of the decade. Cerrone does not back down and has a strong chin which allows him to absorb shots to give a few punches. Cowboy is also a hugely technical striker who has an ability to chain together strike combinations that look like something out of Mortal Kombat. The striking proficiency comes from experience but also the diligent teaching of Greg Jackson who is widely regarded as one of the best in the sport.
The experience of Cowboy means that he comes into fights with an innate knowledge of how strike combinations should flow, it is second nature to him. He knows what shots to throw without a second of hesitation which gives him a distinct advantage over his opponents, that experience can be key when it comes to finding small advantages in fights. The only knock on Cowboy is that he is a slow starter and can get punished early in fights. Cowboy has been caught out by a fast starters before which is exactly what happened in the Rafael Dos Anjos fight. Dos Anjos put the pressure on early and put Cerrone away before he even got out of second gear.
In contrast, Conor is a fast starter who will come out of gate with a lot of power in his hands. As the fight goes, the power will fade and Conor will have to adjust his style of fighting. The knock-out will be out of the question so his fight strategy switches to being the more active and hitting his punches consistently.. For McGregor to knock Cerrone out, his preferred fight outcome, he has to get Donald within the first two rounds. I do not doubt that McGregor will find the right shot or create the angle for his vicious left hand if the fight remains standing and turns into a boxing match. However, Cerrone can make the fight difficult for Conor if he gets the fight away from the Irishman’s comfort zone.
Cowboy is a superb MMA grappler and has put away numerous opponents using his grappling. Donald is a black belt in BJJ and could use those skills to tire out Conor so that McGregor is not able to control the fight on the feet. If Cerrone can take McGregor down and maul him on the ground, it will sap the gas tank and morale of the Irishman. The power generated from Conor’s shoulders will be gone as he expends needless energy fighting out of bottom position. Cowboy has the advantage when it comes to grappling in this fight and he needs to use this factor to his benefit. If he chooses to stand and trade shots with Conor, he will eventually get picked off. Conor has solid head movement and his chin can take more punishment than Cerrone’s chin which has looked ropey in the last few fights. Cowboy has to mix the fight up and force McGregor to defend the threat of the takedown. While McGregor is decent at defending takedown attempts, an experienced blackbelt like Donald will eventually find the angle and drag his opponent down.
In terms of choosing a winner, I have to pick Conor McGregor to win by knock-out in the early rounds of the fight. Cowboy has looked chinny over the his last few fights as a result of a lengthy career where he has used his chin to absorb punches rather than protecting himself. That is one of the biggest consequences of being an action fighter, the ability to take damage diminishes in the latter stages of the fighter’s career. In Cerrone’s last two fights, he was battered by Justin Gaethje and Tony Ferguson, two fighters who inflict a lot of punishment on an opponent. Cowboy has been brilliant in recovering quickly from being rocked but against a fighter like Conor who has perfect control over that left hand, it’ll be hard to recover. We have seen McGregor drop fighters with one just punch, that one punch decided the fight against Jose Aldo and it put Eddie Alvarez in a world of pain. Alvarez is another fighter who recovers well from damage but he was not able to create the separation and time needed to get his bearings. McGregor kept coming with that left hand and kept on dropping the ‘Underground King’. I do not think that the Cowboy fight will go the same way but it is probable that Conor will land heavy shots that put Cerrone on his ass.
