Finding the Proper Left-Footed Right-Sided Player for Marco Silva — ToffeeTargets
Written by @RyanSoccerAA
Everton has secured a new midfielder and a striker over the past weekend. One area of need is a winger now. We put together a comprehensive look at who Marco Silva and Marcel Brands might target.
Now that Everton has signed a replacement for Gana Gueye (see our article on replacement candidates including information on Gbamin: here) and has secured Moise Kean to play CF (see our 2-part series on CF candidates here), Marcel Brands needs to push forward and find ways to improve the club prior to the close of the transfer window.
Everton’s defense was stout last year, but the club needs to find a way to score more goals to challenge the top 6. Marco Silva’s Everton scored 54 goals with 33 from open play, good for 8 thin the PL. While that’s a massive improvement over the previous season’s tally of 44, it’s still 9 fewer than 6 thplace Chelsea and 13 fewer than 4 thplace Tottenham.
Marco Silva had previously indicated his need for a left-footed player to play in his wider right forward position. Richarlison has shown the ability to play there, but he is not left-footed and Silva might want him back on the right. Theo Walcott plays on the right, but he’s not left-footed and frankly, was a huge part of Everton’s ball retention issues in the first half of last season.
Lookman, Sandro, and Onyenkuru are all right footers that are more effective on the left, which is a part of why all won’t be with the club this upcoming season. Yannick Bolasie and Kevin Mirallas are also not viable candidates and likely be moved on by the end of August.
There have been several players rumored to be in the crosshairs of Marcel Brands and Marco Silva that seem to fit the profile of right-sided, left-footed inside forward and are in his desired age range (26 and below).
If history and tactics are any indications, we believe Marco Silva is looking for more goals and chances, and thus we focused on left footers that played significant time on the right, and looked at their 1) ability to score, 2) ability to create chances for their teammates, and 3) take care of the ball. We also then put all those factors together, put some relative weight on those data points over the past 2 years that we felt were most critical, and came up with a composite performance score.
But of course, all data is subject to different conditions, so it’s always more important to watch these players play and many a full assessment of their abilities especially with respect to how Everton play.
The Goal Scorers
Of our population, we developed a scoring system based on a group of stats including non-penalty goals per 90, xG to G differential, shots on target, shots on target %, and goal convention %. Based on our data, the following players were the most effective in putting the ball in the back of the net:
Bertrand Traore, age 23, Lyon.
This probably isn’t a surprise to anyone. Everton has been linked with Traore since early in the summer for good reason. Traore has great composure in the box and can flat out score from the right side. He also seems to fit from a defensive standpoint.
He has good size for the position and is excellent in the air with the highest % of aerial challenge wins in our sample. He has also had success pressuring the other team and winning tackles. He is good in the dribble with a high success rate and above average frequency, using his pace and power combination to create space primarily for his shot. He has a high passing rate for both forward passes and from distance.
The knock on Traore is that he’s simply not very good at creating chances for his teammates, overwhelmingly left footed, and very predictable. He’s not the best crosser of the ball and his xA / key passing numbers are near the bottom of our population.
That being said, I have seen him use his right to send the occasional square pass to teammates in the box, and when he does pass, at least he’s taking care of the ball and good in possession. Everton do need goals, he would likely fit into Everton’s tactics, and likely wouldn’t break the bank despite Lyon’s initial asking price of being €40M.
Nicholas Pepe, age 23, Lille
Another obvious selection, Pepe appears to be on the way to Arsenal for a fee of around €80M. Pepe has size and pace and is predominantly a goal scorer like Traore, but offers more creatively, while taking more risks to do so. He is deadly cutting inside and scoring off his left foot, possessing the highest goal conversion numbers in our sample and can score from inside or outside the box.
Pepe usually looks to run with the ball when he receives it an attack immediately. While primarily a goal scorer, he’s efficient with through balls and short passes in the box to set up him teammates when he sees numbers ahead of him blocking his path to goal. A fair criticism of Pepe is that he’s not efficient in beating players off the dribble. That being said, he’s an elite goal scorer that is multi-dimensional and has earned his high priced move to the PL. Marco Silva is said to have been a big fan.
Anderson Talisca, 25, Guangzhou Evergrande
I know, I know, he’s a complete headcase that is playing in a very poor league. I would be highly skeptical of anyone making a play for Talisca, but his numbers are ridiculous. He’s usually listed as an ACM, but he drifts out to the right A LOT and cuts in on his left to devastating effect.
He’s averaging almost 5 shots a game over this last season and outperforming his xG by quite some distance. He’s also creative, he takes care of the ball, and he has excellent defensive numbers. It’s a poor league, but he is completely dominating it and has the size (6'3"), speed, and skill that would make him absolutely perfect on the right side in Silva’s tactics. For many different reasons, it’s unlikely to happen, but it’s an interesting proposal.
The Creators
There were several players that stood out in our population for their ability to create for their teammates. Some may not seem like typical inside forwards or wide players, but they occupy a space on the field that makes sense in Marco Silva’s tactics and they create chances, which Everton is seriously lacking in their current first team. Again, we took a combination of data points including various passing and assist numbers as well as a very minor factor for crosses.
Marco Asensio, Age 23, Real Madrid
Realistically, Asensio is going nowhere. He’s also blown his ACL and won’t be back in action in 9 months, and likely not at full speed for well over a year. Moise Kean aside, he’s simply not the type of young player clubs make available. But he does play a lot in the right channel area and creates a lot of opportunities for his teammates. He is probably the best crosser of the ball in our population and has one of the highest xA per 90 numbers in our data. What’s almost more impressive is his ability to keep the ball.
He is proficient in dribbling and passing, giving the ball away at a much lower rate than virtually everyone in our population. Conversely, Asensio is not a prolific goal scorer. He shoots with accuracy and has scored his shares of goals, but his conversation rate is on the low end of our sample. Regardless, Asensio is extremely talented, but likely not going anywhere.
Viktor Tsygankov, Age 21, Dynamo Kyiv
The Israeli-born, Ukrainian national has put up some remarkable numbers over the past 2 seasons and would seem to be a perfect tactical fit offensively in Marco Silva’s tactics. Tsygankov loves to cut in from the right and can do all sorts of things with his wand of a left foot. He has high xA per 90 numbers and the highest 2 ndassist numbers in our sample. Tsygankov is not just a creator, though, as he can attack and hurt defenses in many different ways.
He is extremely efficient with his shooting with one of the highest shots on target % and goal conversion rates in our sample. In watching him on film it’s easy to see why. He’s also fantastic dribbling in open field and in tighter quarters. He loves to take players on and seems to glide with the ball at almost top speed and with control. He has lots of tricks and loves to set up defenders off his left foot, but also shows some capable skills with the right, even if he is predominantly left footed.
While it would be a significant leap to the PL and he would likely not be penciled into the starting XI any time soon, he’s already shown ability at the international level with Ukraine and seems to have all the skills one needs in order to make that type of jump.
Martin Odegaard, Age 20, Real Madrid (currently on loan to Real Sociedad)
It’s worth noting that Odegaard is often listed as an attacking or central midfielder, but he did most of his work out on the right with Vitesse in Holland. We recognize the Dutch league is not a top-five league, but Odegaard was truly the focal point of the Vitesse attack.
Real Sociedad has since taken the Norwegian on loan from Madrid in yet another smart move from the San Sebastián club, thus he’s not moving to Everton any time soon. If last year is any indicator, Sociedad fans will likely see Odegaard on the ball A LOT attacking on the dribble and creating time and space for him to exhibit his remarkable array of passing skills — short, long, through ball, smart passes — that were tremendously effective in creating goals for his teammates.
Odegaard also has good defensive numbers and works hard on the pitch. If there is a fair criticism of Odegaard, its that he is not a great finisher and does not convert a lot of his chances into goals. Regardless, he is only 20 years old and it will be interesting to see how he fares in La Liga in a very exciting Real Sociedad side.
The All-Arounders
There were other players that scored high in virtually all areas we looked at, two of which Everton has been linked to, with the other two likely out of Everton’s reach:
Malcom, Age 22, Zenit St. Petersburg
Malcom made the surprising move to Zenit just 12 months after making a last minute switch to Barcelona spurning interest from Everton and Roma. Even with his limited minutes and perceived ineffectiveness at Barcelona, it’s hard to argue that Malcom doesn’t have the perfect profile for Everton under Marco Silva. He takes care of the ball, he creates, and although he doesn’t take a lot of shots, shows ability to score.
Although Malcom is not the biggest player, he’s strong on the ball and seems under control in open space or heading into the box. Although he doesn’t do it often, when Malcom attacks with the dribble he’s remarkably effective. Much like when he shoots, he hits the target and converts at a higher rate that almost everyone in our population. He also creates well for his teammates with a high xA per 90 number.
Malcom seems like a perfect fit at Everton, but obvious the club were not interested in matching the reported €45M and €6M a year in salary offered by Zenit. Although some believe he had a poor season at Barcelona, I attribute some of it to bad luck and personally have no reservations about his talent. His agent definitely deserves a lot of credit for making himself a TON of money the last 12–13 months and one can’t help but think he might be back on the market again next summer if he has a big year with Zenit.
David Neres, Age 22, Ajax
After solid performances considering his age in the Copa America for Brazil and outstanding moments in the Champions League, Neres has attracted interest from several top clubs including several in the PL.
While the Dutch league isn’t the most competitive league, especially for PSV, Neres still stood out for a very good side. He is a bit sloppy with the ball at times, but he loves taking players on with a wide array of tricks to go with tremendous pace and deceptive strength.
He has excellent off the ball movement that allows him to get in advanced positions to either receive a ball with his back to a defender and turn and score or to use his pace to beat a defender to the far post for a tap in. He finishes well, his goal conversion numbers are high, and while he’s left-footed, he can play both sides of the pitch well. Neres defensive numbers aren’t particularly great, but not many can create and score as well as he can at his age.
Pablo Dybala, Age 25, Juventus
It’s pretty safe to say he’s not coming to Everton, although it does appear that Juventus is willing to move him for the right price as he was a major negotiating chip in a Lukaku deal that fell apart. Dybala is obviously a massive talent and although is thought of as more of a second striker (or a man without a position), he spends most of his time on the right side in a position that would fit in with Marco Silva’s tactics.
Dybala is a terrific goal scorer and although he might not elite, he can create a bit for his teammates as well. At times he’s looked like what he is supposed to be — one of the best talents in football. Spraying passes all over the pitch. Scoring worldlies from distance. Showing tremendous control in tight quarters and accelerating out of trouble. At other times, he’s seemed lost or ineffective and some question whether he’ll ever achieve his potential, even if it has been set almost impossibly high. Ultimately, he’s not a legitimate option for Everton.
Kai Havertz, Age 20, Bayern Leverkusen
Another player Everton has almost no chance of getting, Havertz is one of the biggest talents in football. He had a remarkable year this past season considering how young he is, with some spectacular displays of talent that bodes well for his future. Havertz is tall (6'2"), lanky, and somewhat unassuming, but he’s got a wonderful touch, vision and creativity, and a hammer for a shot that can find the back of the net from almost any place on the pitch.
He’s still a bit inconsistent and does try some ridiculous stuff at times, but it’s remarkable how often he pulls some of it off. He uses an arsenal of clever passing techniques — chips, through balls — to spring teammates into space and create chances. He’s very effective in a playmaker role and he can use both feet well, although he seems to spend a bit more time on the right and likes to cut inside with his preferred left foot. His dribbling is also quite effective, and he’s got enough pace to blow right by opponents.
It’s hard to find much to criticize Havertz about as he’s still so young and has had such a successful year. Perhaps he could look for his shot more and maybe work on some of his defensive qualities, but there’s very little that I see that could prevent him from being one of the best players in the world in the next decade.
I think as with most Germany wunderkinds, it’s easy to see him at Munich even though rumors indicate that Leverkusen rejected a €90M offer and do not want to sell. With the departure of Julian Brandt, Havertz is likely to play even more than he did last year and I expect him to have an even bigger year.
Notable Mentions
There were other players that certainly piqued our curiosity that might be worth taking a chance on that we thought were worth noting:
Robert Skov, Age 23, Hoffenheim
Skov put up impressive attacking numbers across the board for Kobenhavn last year, albeit in a lower league. He may profile more as a CF and doesn’t appear to have top-end speed, but it’s hard to argue his tremendous left foot and his intelligence with the ball. We are eager to see what he can do at a higher level with Hoffenheim this upcoming season.
Rony Lopes, Age 23, Monaco
Lopes has recently been linked to Everton and had a tremendous 17/18 season, yet did not replicate that kind of production last year. Lopes plays predominantly on the left and relative to others in our population has a tendency to look for his teammates via the cross as would a typical winger playing on the side of his dominant foot.
Still, his finishing numbers are efficient and as clever as he is with the ball, one has to wonder if he might benefit from a change of scenery and even side of the pitch. Lopes is young enough to turn things around and if Everton made a move and got the player that scored like he did in 17/18, it could be a classic case of bargain hunting that could make Marcel Brands and Marco Silva look like a genius.
Ricardo Orsolini, Age 22, Bologna
Orsolini is a key member of Bologna and makes a lot happen on the pitch. He generates a lot of shots, serves up a ton of crosses (highest number in our population), and has a terrific left foot. He has lots of tricks with the dribble and takes players on with a very high success rate.
He’s shown to be an exceptional player at the youth level for Italy after his breakout in the U20 World Cup in 2017 and Bologna wisely exercised an option to buy the player from Juventus this summer, so it’s unlikely he is going anywhere. Irrespective of his transfer status, not sure he’s the best fit for Everton. He does cut inside at times but also likes occupying the wider spots outright, which Marco Silva I believe wants to be taken by the right-back.
In addition, while Orsolini has good size and strength, I’m not sure his pace and his overall game translate well to the PL. He wouldn’t have the same time on the ball and when he breaks into space, he’s very measured and doesn’t really do things at pace. Orsolini is still young and a very productive player in a top league for a side that isn’t the best, so that also needs to be taken into account. Either way, he’s not a likely candidate for Everton this window.
The Young Guns
There were several younger players worth noting that made our list and while they currently don’t have the type of production that some of the others have and would likely not play a major role even off the bench in the current Everton team, they offer promise for the future.
Moussa Diaby, Age 20, Bayern Leverkusen
Diaby is a smallish left footer that plays more like a wing on the left but can play on the right and cut inside to attack the goal. He’s undersized, but has tremendous quickness and pace with or without the ball. He’s a very exciting young prospect that showed to be a handful in the U20 World Cup at times and wasteful at others.
Diaby has shown a good first touch and some natural playmaking ability. He’s a typical young prospect that has physical skills and great moments, but is still inconsistent. He moved to Leverkusen this off season and should get more opportunities to show his talent than he did at PSG.
Leon Bailey, Age 21, Bayern Leverkusen
Bailey is another Leverkusen speedster that tends to play more as a winger on the left. He’s very active on the pitch and plays with a certain degree of flair that is entertaining to watch. He’s effective at setting up his teammates and less effective in scoring and finishing his chances. He seemed to spring to life a bit when current head coach Peter Bosz came in last December, but after a slightly disappointing Gold Cup, it will be interesting to see how he fits into Bosz’s plans.
Calvin Stengs, Age 20, AZ
Stengs has power, pace, size, and loves to drive forward with the ball, predominantly on his left, and has a powerful shot. Again, he’s a typical inconsistent youth player that is still a development year away from moving to a bigger club. He also strikes me as more of a central midfielder, so we shall see if he can take his performance to another level this season.
Ianis Hagi, Age 20, Genk
The son of Gheorghe Hagi moved to Genk this summer for an estimated fee of €8M after a fantastic showing in the U21 Euros for Romania. While Hagi showed impressive finishing in the U21s, he was more of a central playmaker for Viitorul in the relatively weak Romanian league and statistically a poor finisher. Genk has a very accomplished scouting department and gives a lot of chances to younger players, so it will be very interesting to see how he develops this season.
Samuel Chukwueze, Age 20, Villareal
It’s very easy to be enamored with some of the highlights created by Chukwueze in La Liga this year. He’s scored a handful of goals, he’s attacked well via the dribble, he’s gotten into the box, and he’s looked very fast and dangerous. He’s been a bit inconsistent, doesn’t offer much defensively yet, and hasn’t created too much for his teammates, but he doesn’t look overwhelmed by the league, either.
He’s definitely a smallish player, even for La Liga, but his athleticism and tricks on the ball are electric. He held his own for Nigeria in the AFCON this summer and has been the subject of transfer rumours for big clubs such as Bayern and Liverpool. Although there hasn’t been much buzz recently on a move, he just changed management teams a few days ago and perhaps something is in the works. He is a very talented player and if he stays at Valencia and has a big year the competition could be intense in the future. Any Everton links have been tenuous at best and the club is likely looking elsewhere.
Wilfred Zaha — Data Anomaly
Although he didn’t score very high in our composite rankings, we felt it was important to independently address Zaha as he’s such a unique player. It’s important to note the team and the league he plays in. Crystal Palace is not a bad side, but they are poor in possession and traditionally very defense-oriented.
As a quick sample, here are the last 5 managers at Palace — Tony Pulis, Alan Pardew, Sam Allardyce, Frank de Boer, and Roy Hodgson. The most attacking of these managers, Frank de Boer, was promptly fired after 5 matches. This past season, they sat back and relied on the counter a lot and pressured little.
Zaha takes more people on off the dribble than anyone in the PL and pretty much anyone in the top 5 leagues in Europe. Other than Saint-Maximin, who is nowhere near the player. Eden Hazard is the only other player with over 400 during the past season, Zaha is at 464! He was often isolated at Palace and upon watching him on film, he was indeed double and triple-teamed often making it difficult for him to be compared to other players with stronger sides and multiple options.
Crystal Palace was 18 thin the PL in passes into the final third so if Zaha was going to get close to goal, he was pretty much going to have to do it himself, which he did successfully. Not surprisingly, he was fouled 100 times, more than anyone else in the league and only Hazard was even over 75, and drew quite a few penalties and probably deserved to draw a few more.
In terms of creating and scoring chances, Zaha is a more efficient creator than a scorer. He was 5 thin the PL in key passes and secondary assists and in our sample, his crossing accuracy was 3 rdhighest with his creation numbers slightly above average. Considering his team and league, that’s pretty impressive.
It’s also worth mentioning that his actual assist totals have been lower than his xA numbers 4 of the last 5 seasons. His scoring numbers in our sample were middle of the road, but considering the attention he gets, it would be interesting to see how he’d do in a different side. He still had the most successful attacking actions in our sample, so the bottom line is that Zaha makes a LOT happen in attack.
That being said, Zaha does turn the ball over a lot. Although he doesn’t have extraordinarily high lost ball numbers, and my eyes tell me he’s very good at holding the ball up under pressure, it’s hard to argue with the fact that he was disposed more times than anyone in the PL and average almost more than twice as many as anyone else in the league.
Again, he’s also taking guys on more times in more difficult circumstances than anyone else, so the numbers are all relative. Still, for a team like Everton that was dreadful in losing the ball and keeping possession even under little pressure, that’s a concern, especially with the loss of Idrissa Gana Gueye.
A Gylfi Sigurdsson, Andre Gomes, and JP Gbamin midfield isn’t the best defensively and the risk is that Gbamin is isolated dealing with a high number of counter-attacks as a result of unsuccessful attacking actions.
Hakim Ziyech — Data Anomaly 2
Ziyech was initially not in the data sample as he is more of a playmaker, although he is left-footed and predominantly played on the right side this past season. However, since the rumor mill suggested that Marcel Brands had asked Mina Raiola to help facilitate a deal for Ziyech with Ajax, even if he isn’t even his agent. We thought at Toffee Targets that we should take another look at Ziyech as a result.
Ziyech’s numbers are extremely impressive. There’s no one in our sample that His creation numbers would be the best in our sample — his xA per 90 numbers is far and away the highest and he averages more long passes than anyone else by quite a bit.
His scoring numbers are very high, although it’s driven by what would be the 2 ndhighest shot total in our sample as he’s not a very efficient scorer. Ziyech also loves to take a player on with the dribble, albeit with one of the poorer success rates in our population. Much like Zaha, Ziyech makes a LOT happen in the attack, just in a league that frankly, he’s too good for at this point.
What Will Brands and Marco Silva Do? The Scenarios
There are a lot of different ways Everton could go this window. The right player really depends on what angle they are taking. So we’ve looked at a couple scenarios:
Scenario 1: Unlimited Budget, Best Player Available. Zaha.
Moshiri has plenty of money, but FFP has to be a factor as does sustainability. If Brands knows he can move a lot of players out and recoup some fees, Zaha is already an elite PL player and brings exactly what Everton needs most — goals. Yes, his turnovers are a serious concern. When a player gets disposed of almost twice as many times per game as anyone else in the league and then ALSO leads the league in bad touches, it’s a major concern.
This was maybe Everton’s biggest issue last year. However, the idea that he gets doubles every time he touches it is real. It could go south, there is a serious risk, but this could be the difference between 7 thand a CL spot. If the price is too high, Ziyech is probably the second choice, although there are some of the same concerns even if he’s a very different player.
Scenario 2: None of the above.
Brands may not see enough value in any of these guys honestly. One realistic scenario is Brands and Marco Silva goes after a bigger target in another position like Doucoure, shores up our midfield, gets us to play a 4–3–3, and moves Gylfi out wide.
I have to admit, the more I think about it, Gylfi would be deadly in one of those two positions. A Doucoure/Gbamin defensive mid pair would support wide attacks from both sides, get our FBs upfield, allow Gomes to roam freely without exposing his defensive inadequacies, and Doucoure/Gbamin don’t need much help building from the back. Those two would be DEVASTATING in midfield and Silva could play more of the true 4–3–3 that he’s wanted.
Scenario 3: Talented Backup Now, Future Star Later. Tsygankov.
I could even see this paired with Scenario 2. It’s not just the numbers with Tsygankov, he just looks special and seems to have it all. He can dribble, he can score AND create, he’s good under pressure, he’s smooth and fast with the ball in transition, and his left foot is amazing. To see this kind of talent and composure at any level with his age is impressive. I don’t believe he would break the bank, either.
Scenario 4: Solid squad player, limited budget. Traore.
I just don’t see him going anywhere near some of the initial quoted prices. I recognize Lyon has sold Mendy, Ndombele, and Fekir, but they’ve spent a bit as well and have a ready-made backup in Cornet who really came on at the end of the year. I know he’s not the most creative, but he can flat out score. He’s got good size and can defend in Silva’s scheme.
Scenario 5: Unlimited Budget, Best Young Player Available. Neres.
I might’ve said Malcom, but the more I watch Neres, the more I’m impressed. I truly didn’t appreciate his movement and his strength until I gave him a closer look. He just makes himself dangerous no matter if the ball is at his feet or on the other end of the pitch.
It would take some adjustment to the PL, but I just saw him elevate him game in the Champions League at times and really believe he could be an impact player in the very near future, and a good option right now. It’s not as if Bernard and Richarlison are bad options and Neres’ ability to play either side could be invaluable, as he could allow Richarlison to play on the left where he’s probably a bit more dangerous.He might be cost prohibitive at this point, however, with all sorts of large clubs supposedly after him at this point.
Final Conclusion
I really think Marcel Brands and Marco Silva are going to find a way to make Scenario 1 happen. With the lack of perceived progress, some of the other big 6 sides are showing this window, there is an opportunity for someone outside to breakthrough.
Wolves are dealing with Europe and have added, but most players that were already there. Leicester are a good side but have to replace Mcguire and it’s critical that they use those funds wisely. Watford hasn’t added much and If Everton steals Doucoure, it could make things difficult for them.
Part of me really hopes Brands stays the course and focus a bit more on younger players, but if the budget is there to still get in a CB as well as a RB and FFP isn’t an issue, I can certainly understand trying to get Zaha or Ziyech. Either way, it’s going to be an exciting couple of days.
As always, make sure you follow us on Twitter @ToffeeTargets for more up to date Everton transfer news.
Also, give me a follow on Twitter @RyanSoccerAA. Love talking about in-depth analysis on players across Europe. Be sure to check out my post on Moise Kean vs. Rafael Leao
Originally published at https://toffeetargets.com on August 6, 2019.
