French Open 2019 Predictions — Will Rafael Nadal extend his reign in Parisian Clay?
After six weeks of grueling competition, tennis fans all over the world will start focusing on the Roland Garros for the climax of the European clay court season. The 123rd edition of the French open will start this Sunday with defending champion Rafael Nadal looking to win an unprecedented 12th title in the recently renovated “Court Philippe Chatrier”.
This article will evaluate Rafael Nadal chances of defending his title based on his past performances, current form, health and projected opponents.
Past Performances
Ever since his debut in 2005 Nadal has dominated Parisian Clay winning 11 out of the 14 tournaments held so far. His first loss in the tournament came in 2009 against Robin Söderling after 31 match win streak. However, the Spanish player reclaimed the title in 2010 and went on to be the first player to have win 5 consecutive French Open titles. Novak Djokovic ended his record breaking 39 match win streak in 2015 and he had to withdraw prior to his third-round match of 2016 tournament due to a wrist injury.
In 2017, an impeccable Nadal comeback with vengeance to win his 10th French Open title without losing a set and became the only male player ever to win 10 singles titles at the same Grand Slam event. He was equally dominant in 2018 and went on to win the title only losing one set during the entire tournament.
As you can see in the chart given below, he has an astonishing 91.7% win rate in clay courts after 468 ATP tour level matches. This improves to an unimaginable 97.7% at Stade Roland Garros. Thus, based on past performance you cannot look beyond the King of Clay when looking for the favorite to win French Open.
Current Form
As usual, Rafa started his clay court season at Monte Carlo after withdrawing from both Indian Wells and Miami due to a hip injury. Summary of his performances are given below;
Nadal has a 14–3 record in clay courts this season with an ATP World Tour Masters 1000 title at Rome. While any other player would be extremely confident with 82.4% win percentage going in to the French Open, this has been a tough year for the King of Clay, based on the high standards he set throughout his amazing career.
In fact, if we look at his returns on clay since 2005, this year is his worst after the struggles of 2015 where he went to the French open with a 10–4 record losing all four tournaments that he took part. Chart given below shows his clay court stats since 2005. Table given below, further proves the fact when considering all matches in clay.
However, if you look beyond the numbers and focus on the actual facts you might see an entirely different story.
In Monte Carlo, Rafa struggled with his serve and had to survive some tough moments with Guido Pella before he was comprehensively beaten by a Fabio Fognini master class. In fact, Fognini served for the match at 5–0 and 40–0, but Nadal saved three match points, broke back to avoid a bagel.
Even though, he struggled against Leonardo Mayer in the second round of Barcelona Open, there was a noticeable improvement in his confidence and movement. However, that was not enough to trouble an impressive Dominic Theim, who defeated Nadal in straight sets. He improved further in Madrid, before going down to a spirited Stefanos Tsitsipas in three sets. However, in Rome we saw the Rafa Nadal we used to see on Clay. With a much improved service game Nadal handed four bagels, including a one to Novak Djokovic in the final.
Thus, even though statistics suggest otherwise, Nadal’s journey suggest he is peaking at the right time to defend his French Open title.
Health Concerns
Since he was forced retire from the 2018 US Open semifinal against Juan Martin del Potro due to a knee injury, Rafa suffered a series of setbacks which prevented him from competing till end of 2018. He again suffered a hip injury which led to his withdrawal from Indian Wells and Miami. Even though, he lacked confidence in his fitness at Monte Carlo, those fears faded away as he gathered games under his belt.
Therefore, we can conclude that Nadal is fully fit ahead of the French Open.
Draw Analysis — Projected opponents and predictions
Overall, I believe Rafa had a favorable draw. Especially, since both of his main rivals, Djokovic and Thiem are in the opposite half. Let’s go through his projected opponents;
Round 1 and 2
Rafa will play against couple of qualifiers in the first two rounds. Even though, he has not played any of them before, I do not expect anyone to trouble him as John Isner did in 2011.
Prediction — Nadal to win both matches comfortably in straight sets. Expect a bagel or two.
Round 3
Nadal is expected to meet 2016 French Open quarter-finalist David Goffin in third round. Goffin’s has been experiencing modest returns in 2019, since his return after recovering from an elbow injury that ended his 2018 season abruptly. Rafa lead their head-to-head 3–1, winning all previous encounters on clay. Given his current form, it’s hard to imagine that Goffin will challenge Rafa.
Prediction — Should be a straight sets win for Nadal.
Round 4
Nikoloz Basilashvili, Richard Gasquet and Guido Pella will be the favorites to meet Rafa in fourth round. Based on his consistent performances on clay in 2019, I believe Brazil Open winner Pella will reach the round of 16. Even though, Pella failed to win a set in their three previous meetings, he might pose some discomfort to Rafa, especially, if a set goes for a tie-break.
Prediction — Rafa to win in three closely contested sets.
Quarterfinal
Purely based on the rankings, Kei Nishikori is projected to be Nadal’s quarterfinal opponent. Kei reached the quarterfinals or better in last three Grand Slam tournaments to be defeated by the eventual winner Novak Djokovic each time. Can he go a step further and reach the final this time since Djokovic is in the other half? I doubt it. In fact, I believe Daniil Medvedev will beat him in the fourth round to set up a quarterfinal clash with Nadal.
Medvedev had an inspiring start to the clay court season by reaching the semifinal of Monte-Carlo Masters beating Djokovic and Tsitsipas en-route. He continued in this rich vein of form to reach the finals of Barcelona Open beating Nishikori in the semifinals. Even though, he had couple of early exits since then I would expect him to defeat Nishikori in long competitive battle.
Rafa and Medvedev has not played each other previously, so I expect this to have some close moments. If Medvedev plays to his potential, I think he can take a set away from Rafa.
Prediction — Medvedev to take a set from Nadal. However, Rafa will win in four sets.
Semifinal
All tennis fans would be hoping to witness the 39th Fedal on Parisian Clay. Though, can Roger Federer reach the semifinal? I think he will do his best, as this would most likely be his final appearance at Roland Garros. However, he will face some tough competition from Diego Schwartzman in the fourth round which believe he will overcome in a long 4 or 5 set encounter.
His opponent for the quarterfinal will be the Greek sensation Stefanos Tsitsipas who will conquer Frances Tiafoe and Stan Wawrinka en route to the quarterfinals. In the quarterfinal, I would expect Tsitsipas to beat Federer in 4 close sets to deny a much anticipated battle between Rafa and Federer.
Nadal has the 3–1 advantage over Tsitsipas after beating him at Rome Masters.
Prediction — Nadal will extend his head-to-head advantage to 4–1 over Tsitsipas by overpowering him is straight sets.
Final
Favorites to reach the quarterfinals from the top half;
· Novak Djokovic to defeat Borna Ćorić in four sets
· Fabio Fognini to defeat Dušan Lajović in four sets
· Dominic Thiem to rout Fernando Verdasco in straight sets
· Juan Martín del Potro to beat the last French hope Lucas Pouille in four sets
From there onward, Djokovic will reach the semifinals by flattening Fognini in straight sets and Thiem will get the better of Del Potro in four or five closely contested sets.
Even though Novak Djokovic has a 6–2 advantage on head-to-head, Thiem has become an exceptional force in clay courts. He will end Djokovic’s chances of holding all four Grand Slam for the second time by getting the better of Djokovic in close match that goes the full distance.
Dominic Theim has a 4 victories over Rafa and all four of them are on clay. However, he lost to Rafa in straight sets in last two French open tournaments, once in 2017 semifinal and the other in the 2018 final. His performances on clay this year has been somewhat inconsistent. While, he suffered early exits in Monte-Carlo and Rome, he played exceptionally well in Barcelona.
However, the question remains whether he can conquer the biggest challenge in men’s tennis — beating Rafael Nadal in a final in front of 15,000+ fans at Court Philippe Chatrier.
Prediction — Nadal to win his 12th French Open title and 18th Grand Slam title by overwhelming Dominic Theim in 4 closely contested sets.
Do you agree with the predictions? If not, who do you think will win the French Open 2019?
I would love to know your thoughts. Leave comment!
