2019–2020 NBA Playoff predictions if the playoffs started today.
Before I get into this article, I wanted to take a moment to wish/hope you all are keeping safe and practicing social distancing! This is a pandemic that we’ve never seen and only being united can we beat this. I know things seem bleak with life as we knew it at a stand still, but I promise things will get better. Just be safe, check in on those who would need help, again keep practicing social distancing and help those organizations, like Food Banks and Red Cross, that are helping those that are hurting the most during these uncertain times.
Now then, let’s begin.
It’s sad to think that it took a global pandemic to make me come back to writing an article. It’s even more sad to think that I’m writing an article on an NBA season that could potentially be over before we crown a champion, but here we are.
The NBA season suspended about two months ago and since that point the NBA has worked constantly to find a way to resume the season. From resuming the season in its entirety to cutting the season to the last few games before we begin the playoffs to just starting the playoffs in a 5 game series layout, there have been many variations thrown around to how the NBA should go about finishing the season and crowning a champion. With the latest from WOJ and ESPN that the NBA is prepared to take it’s time to make a final decision that could come as late as June.
While the NBA urges fans to stay inside and be patient, I have taken it upon myself to write up my predictions of how the NBA playoffs would play out if it started today in the normal seven game format.
Unfortunately, this gives no opportunity for teams on the bubble to make that final playoff push (Sorry, New Orleans) and gives Memphis the final playoff spot in the west. This also means that we’re assuming that teams are now 100% healthy, aside from Brooklyn that has repeatedly said that they doubt Irving or Durant would be good to go if the playoffs started in the middle to late summer. And yes it also means that Milwaukee will be holding on the best record in the NBA and have home court advantage throughout the playoffs (spoiler, it would have happened anyway).
One thing I want to note before we dive in, the majority of the stats that I’ll be using for this article will be coming from Cleaning The Glass for team stats with NBA.com stats coming in for player stats. For those not familiar, Cleaning The Glass displays stats from all the NBA games, but doesn’t take account garbage time stats.
With all that in mind let’s start with the first round of the 2020 NBA Playoffs!
East 1st Round
#1 Milwaukee vs. #8 Orlando
Milwaukee ranks: 113.5 PPG (4th in NBA), 102.3 Def PPG (1st in NBA), +11.2 Point Diff (1st in NBA)
Milwaukee best player ranks: Giannis Antetokounmpo - 30.9 MPG (66th in NBA), 29.6 PPG (3rd in NBA), 13.7 RPG (3rd in NBA), 5.8 APG (24th in NBA)
Orlando ranks: 109.0 PPG (22nd in NBA), 109.5 Def PPG (11th in NBA), -0.5 Point Diff (15th in NBA)
Orlando best player ranks: Nikola Vucevic - 32.6 MPG (42nd in NBA), 19.5 PPG (34th in NBA), 11.0 RPG (7th in NBA), 3.7 APG (59th in NBA)
Season Series: Milwaukee 4–0
After Milwaukee was eliminated from last years playoffs by the eventual Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard and the 2019 champion Raptors, we all knew that they’d be back and would be a force to be reckoned with in the East. No one could’ve predicted that the Bucks would be in position to be a 70 win team and average better offensive and defensive numbers than the 2015–2016 Warriors (112.6 PPG and 103.9 Def PPG), especially after they lost Malcolm Brogdon.
Not only that, but Giannis actually improved most of his numbers from last seasons MVP performance! Last season, he averaged 32.8 minutes, 27.7 PPG, 12.5 RPG, 5.9 APG and 1.5 blocks on the way to taking the MVP, but this season he’s managed to out due himself. Aside from blocks and slightly in assists, he’s hitting career highs while logging in the lowest MPG since his rookie season! Arguably the front runner to win this seasons MVP, leading the best team in the league with less help than last season and oh yeah he’s also in the conversation for Defensive play of the year!
With Giannis and the Bucks looking to prove that they are a team to be reckoned with in the playoffs, it’s no small task for any team to eliminate them, even in a five game series format. Unfortunately for the Magic, they’ll be first up to find a way to slow this driven team down.
Even with an 11th ranked defense and the leagues #1 offense since the All Star break (yes really!), Orlando would be lucky to get a win against the Bucks. No one should be surprised by this pick.
Prediction: Milwaukee in four
#2 Toronto vs. #7 Brooklyn
Toronto ranks: 111.6 PPG (14th in NBA), 105.5 Def PPG (2nd in NBA), +6.0 Point Diff (6th in NBA)
Toronto best player ranks: Pascal Siakam — 35.5 MPG (10th in NBA), 23.6 PPG (15th in NBA), 7.5 RPG (26th in NBA), 3.6 APG (64th in NBA)
Brooklyn ranks: 108.6 PPG (23rd in NBA), 109.2 Def PPG (8th in NBA), -0.6 Point Diff (16th in NBA)
Brooklyn best player ranks: Spencer Dinwiddie — 31.2 MPG (64th in NBA), 20.6 PPG (23rd in NBA), 3.5 RPG (166th in NBA), 6.8 APG (18th in NBA)
Season Series: Toronto 3–1
Remember before the season began when we all were predicting what trade packages Toronto would be using to ‘rebuild’ the team after Kawhi Leonard went to LA? Remember when most of us believed that Masai Ujiri was salivating at blowing up this team to acquire draft picks and not try defending the NBA title? How did the Raptors respond? Well not only did they keep the team together, Pascal Siakam took a big leap to be the teams leading scorer, have the 2nd best record in the East and have the 2nd stingiest defense in the entire league! Not to mention that these accolades were accomplished while the team had been handling the injury bug all season, not bad for a championship hangover after losing your top player right?
While Toronto has it’s sights on a potential title run this season, Brooklyn is salivating on that opportunity next year. As newly acquired superstars Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving are set to be fully healthy next season, this season looks to be an opportunity for the supporting cast to build chemistry and the front office to examine any needs that might reveal themselves during this playoff run including a third star, as reported by ESPN’s Brian Hindhorst.
While the city of Brooklyn may be looking ahead to next season, Spencer Dinwiddie and the rest of the roster want to show the league that this team shouldn’t be overlooked this season. However with their offense not able to rank even in the top half of the league and employing a 9–19 record against above .500 teams, it’s hard to see a team like this take a team like Toronto past 4 games.
Prediction: Toronto in four
#3 Boston vs. #6 Philadelphia
Boston ranks: 113.3 PPG (5th in NBA), 106.7 Def PPG (4th in NBA), +6.7 Point Diff (3rd in NBA)
Boston best player ranks: Jayson Tatum — 34.6 MPG (19th in NBA), 23.6 PPG (16th in NBA), 7.1 RPG (33rd in NBA), 2.9 APG (686th in NBA)
Philadelphia ranks: 110.9 PPG (16th in NBA), 108.1 Def PPG (6th in NBA), +2.8 Point Diff (11th in NBA)
Philadelphia best player ranks: Joel Embiid (Ranks not included as NBA.com did not include in stat rankings) — 30.2 MPG, 23.4 PPG, 11.8 RPG, 3.1 APG
Season Series: Philadelphia 3–1
I have a confession about each team I need to make here. The first being that I’m a huge fan of watching this seasons iteration of the Boston Celtics especially with the greatness of Jayson Tatum. If you haven’t seen him play this season, I’d recommend using NBA League Pass to watch his greatness including the 2OT win against my Clippers. This can be seen as the season that Jayson Tatum made the jump from a great young player to a superstar!
Though Jayson has had a stellar season, the rest of the Celtics roster is filled with players that have helped Boston’s improve in a major way from the drama filled season from last year. Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart have also made jumps to their game, Gordon Hayward is averaging the best numbers since his last year in Utah and not to mention Kemba Walker has been a great addition (or replacement for Kyrie Irving). Oh and even the rest of the players (Daniel Theis, Enes Kanter, Robert Williams III just to name a few) are essential in the great Boston season.
Now for my second confession, I actually had Philadelphia going to the Finals prior to the season starting. With Kawhi going home to play in LA, Milwuakee losing out on Malcolm Brogdon, it seemed like the East would be in position for Embiid and the Sixers to reach their first NBA Finals since 2000 led by Allen Iverson. Even with losing Jimmy Butler and JJ Redick in free agency, it seemed adding Al Horford and being paired with Joel Embiid would create an issue for any team in the paint. Even slow down the great Giannis Antetokounmpo while making him work on the offensive end.
That was the idea at least and I’m not afraid to admit I was wrong about this prediction. Not only could they slow down Giannis in the season series where he averaged 28.3 PPG , 7.0 APG, 17.0 RPG on 48% shooting in 3 games, but they weren’t able to replace the scoring/shooting that was lost with Redick and Butler. Not to mention that they have the worst road record of all the playoffs teams!
Even with the 76ers winning the season series, I have no confidence in this team anymore especially if there are not games to allow them to get on the right track. The only thing I would give them is the bigs, but even then they only rank 13th in a half court offense where they should be able to utilize post ups and that’s not to mention that Boston has the 4th best half court defense with their athleticism. I predict that Philadelphia will put some fights up in the home games, but will ultimately be out matched and coached in this matchup.
Prediction: Boston in six
#4 Miami vs. #5 Indiana
Miami ranks: 113.1 PPG (7th in NBA), 109.6 Def PPG (12th in NBA), +3.5 Point Diff (7th in NBA)
Miami best player ranks: Jimmy Butler — 34.3 MPG (30th in NBA), 20.2 PPG (27th in NBA), 6.6 RPG (39th in NBA), 6.1 APG (22nd in NBA)
Indiana ranks: 110.9 PPG (17th in NBA), 108.5 Def PPG (7th in NBA), +2.4 Point Diff (12th in NBA)
Indiana best player ranks: Domantas Sabonas — 34.8 MPG (17th in NBA), 18.5 PPG (47th in NBA), 12.4 RPG (5th in NBA), 5.0 APG (36th in NBA)
Season Series: Miami 2–0
Count Miami as one of the teams that not many people believed would be this good! Even with acquiring All Star Jimmy Butler this past off season, not many predicted that the team would have this much success with this roster or even the ascension of the Most Improved Player candidate Bam Adebayo. Throw in phenomenal coaching from Erick Spoelstra, solid contributions from the rest of the roster (looking at you Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro) and it leads to a 41 win squad and the 4th seed in the East with 17 games left in the now postponed season! Considering this is a team that missed the playoffs last season with 39 wins, Miami fans have to be happy with how everything has turned out.
With the noise of the East concentrating on Milwaukee’s dominant season and Miami’s surprising season, Indiana has enjoyed the luxury of a quiet season. Owning one of the leagues top defenses, having an All Star in Domontas Sabonis and Victor Oladipo returning from a year long absence, Indiana is having a similar season to Miami without an All Star coming over during free agency (Sorry Malcolm Brogdon). The big issue is that since the All Star break, Indiana has posted the 2nd worst offense, but luckily their 5th ranked defense has saved them from dropping in the standings.
These teams are somewhat opposites with Miami having a top ranked offense and a mid tier defense while Indiana numbers flip flop with a pretty bad offense, as mentioned above. The hope was that once Oladipo returned that he’d help bridge that offensive gap, however since his 13 games back he’s averaged 13.8 PPG on 39.1% FG shooting.
Granted 13 games is not a great sample size to get back into a rhythm, but unfortunately for Indiana fans this scenario is if the season started today with no real prep time. Indiana’s defense will keep them in this series, but without an offensive spark, best they can do is take this series to 6 with Miami moving on.
Prediction: Miami in six
West 1st Round
#1 LA Lakers vs. #8 Memphis
LA Lakers ranks: 113.2 PPG (6th in NBA), 106.1 Def PPG (3rd in NBA), +7.1 Point Diff (2nd in NBA)
LA Lakers best player ranks: LeBron James — 34.9 MPG (15th in NBA), 25.7 PPG (11th in NBA), 7.9 RPG (22nd in NBA), 10.6 APG (1st in NBA)
Memphis ranks: 109.5 PPG (19th in NBA), 110.7 Def PPG (16th in NBA), -1.2 Point Diff (17th in NBA)
Memphis best player ranks: Ja Morant — 30.0 MPG (80th in NBA), 17.6 PPG (53rd in NBA), 3.5 RPG (164th in NBA), 6.9 APG (13th in NBA)
Season Series: LA Lakers 3–1
This season couldn’t have been more perfect for the Lakers! They own the best record in the West along with a top 5 defense and the 6th best offense led by All Stars LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Speaking of LeBron James, he’s having one hell of a season! After having a rocky first season in LA plagued with drama and a hamstring injury that had him miss half the season, LeBron rebounded by giving an MVP like season with a career high in assists and lead a title contending team at the age of 35. If it wasn’t for Giannis’ phenomenal season, LeBron would be the favorite to win the MVP title.
Though LeBron is a big reason that the Lakers are one of the favorites to win the title, the rest of the roster and the coaching of Frank Vogel have created a boost that few would’ve predicted. Anthony Davis has had a great first season in LA, the rest of the team has adjusted well throughout the season and have played as a cohesive unit to support their All Stars. If Danny Green and Kyle Kuzma can contribute like they’ve proven throughout their careers, I see them as a difficult out even for the likes of the Clippers and Milwaukee.
Memphis will be the first team that is tasked to beat this giant and they have only the slimmest of hope with their explosive rookie Ja Morant and 8th ranked defense since the All Star break. Jonas Valanciunas, Jaren Jackson Jr. and the rest of the squad could potentially be enough to subdue the support cast of the Lakers, but LeBron and AD are too much to contain for them. I don’t see a scenario where they even win one game in the series.
Prediction: LA Lakers in four
#2 LA Clippers vs. #7 Dallas
LA Clippers ranks: 113.7 PPG (2nd in NBA), 107.4 Def PPG (5th in NBA), +6.3 Point Diff (4th in NBA)
LA Clippers best player ranks: Kawhi Leonard — 32.2 MPG (30th in NBA), 26.9 PPG (8th in NBA), 7.3 RPG (29th in NBA), 5.0 APG (38th in NBA)
Dallas ranks: 116.7 PPG (1st in NBA), 110.9 Def PPG (10th in NBA), +5.8 Point Diff (6th in NBA)
Dallas best player ranks: Luka Doncic — 33.3 MPG (34th in NBA), 28.7 PPG (6th in NBA), 9.3 RPG (169th in NBA), 8.7 APG (4th in NBA)
Season Series: LA Clippers 2–0
Before I talk about any matchup with the Clippers, I have to say that I’ll do my best to hide my bias for my favorite team in the NBA. Now let’s get into the matchup.
Of all the playoff matchups, this has me the most pumped. I mean you’re gonna have Kawhi Leonard back in the playoffs, a fully healthy Paul George ready to prove he’s still a monster in the playoffs, the defensive intensity of Patrick Beverly, Rick Carlisle and all his brilliance. Oh and how can we not forget, the mini GOAT LUUUUUUKKKKKKKKAAAAAAAAAA Doncic in his playoff debut. Those are ingredients for a fun playoff matchup!
Let’s start with Kawhi Leonard and the LA Clippers. All eyes were on this team since they made the historic trade to acquire Paul George, and in result Kawhi Leonard, and adding it to an already playoff ready roster that had the likes of Patrick Beverly, Lou Williams, Montrezl Harrell and Landry Shamet. The majority of experts had the team being one of the best perimeter defense the league has ever seen! Unfortunately due to multiple shoulder surgeries, Paul George was forced to miss the first 10 games of the season along with missing a total of 22 games throughout the season. Luckily, the great Kawhi Leonard and the rest of the squad (including the best bench in the NBA) were able to keep the team among the best in the league.
The team managed to get better with mid season acquisitions of Marcus Morris and Reggie Jackson that have both improved their already stellar offense and given them more options on the defensive end. Not to mention that even though the team gives up size for athleticism and shooting, Ivica Zubac provides a stellar option when on the floor (if only Doc would play him more in the 4th).
Okay enough about my beloved Clippers (I’m still being unbiased), let’s get to the Dallas Mavericks and the legend of Luka Doncic. His improvement has been nothing short of phenomenal even after a historic Rookie of the Year run! Want proof? Well last season he averaged 21.2 PPG, 7.8 RPG and 6.0 APG and he’s improved his PG and FT percentages by more than 4%! If it wasn’t for his injuries to both his ankles, he would be a real candidate for MVP of the league!
Luka isn’t the only Maverick that has been battling injuries throughout the season. With this partner in crime Kristaps Porzingis battling his knee issues and Dwight Powell out for the season with an ACL tear, many can make the argument that this team should have a higher seed. Though it’s a small sample size, since the All Star break Dallas has posted 5th in offense and 6th in defense! Which includes a 16 point without the Unicorn against the Denver Nuggets.
Both teams were catching their stride before the season was suspended and were looking to make a major run before the potential start of the playoffs. Both have high powered offenses led by a 1–2 punch that defenses will struggle against. However, it’s the defense that wins playoff series. The Clippers have so many options to guard the perimeter to make Luka uncomfortable throughout a seven game series. In fact, in the two games the team has met Luka has managed to hit his average of 29 PPG, but has done it on 40% shooting which is a significant drop from his 46.1% season average. What about his running mate you ask? Well his numbers are more horrendous than Houston’s new experiment (more on that below), compare 12.5 PPG on 27% shooting to his season average of 19.2 PPG on 42%.
I predict that Dallas’ offense and the will of Luka Doncic will each earn a win for the Mavs. The Clippers will get things done and move on on what should be a fun playoff run!
Prediction: LA Clippers in six
#3 Denver vs. #6 Houston
Denver ranks: 112.6 PPG (10th in NBA), 109.6 Def PPG (13th in NBA), +3.0 Point Diff (10th in NBA)
Denver best player ranks: Nikola Jovic — 32.6 MPG (42nd in NBA), 20.2 PPG (29th in NBA), 10.2 RPG (9th in NBA), 6.9 APG (15th in NBA)
Houston ranks: 113.6 PPG (3rd in NBA), 110.2 Def PPG (15th in NBA), +3.4 Point Diff (8th in NBA)
Houston best player ranks: James Harden — 36.7 MPG (2nd in NBA), 34.4 PPG (1st in NBA), 6.4 RPG (47th in NBA), 7.4 APG (9th in NBA)
Season Series: Tied 2–2
There’s a lot to say about this matchup and the two teams. Both seem to be in a similar funk. Houston just got over a four game losing streak and Denver hasn’t been able to get their post All Star break going on a high note with losses to the teams like Golden State and Cleveland. Both seeming to want to prove to the rest of the league that their way works!
For Denver, the idea seems to be to win by committee rather than win with a star. Yes, they have an All Star with Nikola Jovic and a young stud in Jamal Murray, a stellar rotation that includes Will Barton and Paul Millsap and not to mention they have a great coach in Michael Malone.
Problem is that they seem to hitting a post All Star funk that few can explain. Since the break, Denver is 13th in offense and 16th in defense which is bad enough, but when you consider the only above .500 team they faced in the 10 games have been the Clippers, Milwaukee (Denver won without Giannis suiting up) and Oklahoma City that speaks volume to the issues.
Houston, on the other hand, looks to bring Daryl Morey’s and Mike D’Antoni’s dreams to life by bring their center-less style of basketball to the playoffs. Led by former league MVP’s James Harden and Russell Westbrook, the Rockets look to bring pressure to teams with athletic wing defenders and 3rd ranked offense to a championship ring! Well with a 9–6 record since the Feb 4th Clint Capella trade, it’s tough to say it’s been a success even with wins against the top tiered Lakers and Celtics. If you look a bit deeper, the numbers don’t really shift as Houston rank as the 6th best offense in the league to the 5th after the trade and same goes for the defensive end shifting from 13th to 15th. It’s fair to say we haven’t seen enough of this team to say if this new method has worked, but many argue that last year’s iteration of the Rockets may have been better suited with Point God Chris Paul at the helm with this version.
In all honesty, this might be the last time we see this iteration of either team. Houston may look to rethink their strategy with signs that D’Antoni and Morey could be out after this season. Though Denver just made the playoffs last season, there has to be some belief that they’d look to change up the roster if they aren’t able to make it past the 2nd round of the playoffs.
The main difference between the two teams is that Houston has a guy that they know they can turn to with the last shot and have seen him win series with his scoring ability. Denver’s depth has shown promise, but without any real results materializing.
Similar to last year, Denver will go to seven games against proven All Stars. This time it’ll be one round sooner.
Prediction: Houston in seven
#4 Utah vs. #5 Oklahoma City
Utah ranks: 112.8 PPG (9th in NBA), 109.4 Def PPG (10th in NBA), +3.3 Point Diff (9th in NBA)
Utah best player ranks: Donovan Mitchell — 34.4 MPG (26th in NBA), 24.2 PPG (14th in NBA), 4.4 RPG (116th in NBA), 4.2 APG (49th in NBA)
Oklahoma City ranks: 111.7 PPG (13th in NBA), 109.4 Def PPG (9th in NBA), +2.3 Point Diff (13th in NBA)
Oklahoma City best player ranks: Chris Paul — 31.8 MPG (54th in NBA), 17.7 PPG (52nd in NBA), 4.9 RPG (92nd in NBA), 6.8 APG (16th in NBA)
Season Series: Tied 1–1
It’s hard not to mention COVID 19 when we come to this matchup and it’s pretty easy to see why. This is the game/moment that COVID 19 had first impacted our daily lives and routines (at least for myself since this was also the last day I was able to work in my office) with Rudy Gobert being the first confirmed case of COVID 19 in the NBA. This is also where the NBA decided to halt the NBA games for that day and, soon after, suspend the season. The reason I bring this up isn’t to remind you of your distain for Rudy Gobert (he really didn’t deserve it in the first place tbh), it actually has to do with this potential playoff matchup.
Before March 11th (the last day NBA games were played), Utah has been enjoying another playoff bound season as one of five teams that have both the Top 10 Offense and Defense. When comparing to previous seasons, Utah’s defense has dipped to the teams worst output since the 2013–2014 season where they missed the playoffs, however what’s saved this team is the offensive boom with Donovan Mitchell leading the way! For reference, Utah’s offense hasn’t had an average this high since 2007–2008 season from the Boozer and Williams days! However, since the All Star break the defense has dipped further with the opposing teams averaging 115.4 PPG which is ranked 21st in the league and landed the team with a 5–5 record.
Now you’re probably wondering what does COVID 19 have to do with this matchup, well if you’ve been paying attention to NBA insiders the Jazz have a problem with their two best players. After Rudy Robert showed a complete disregard of the seriousness of COVID 19 during an interview with the media and testing positive for the disease, Donovan Mitchell soon discovered that he also tested positive. Thankfully both have since been cleared of the virus, but it has done damage at their relationships with reports coming that their relationship “..has become unsalvageable”. Granted both players are professionals and won’t allow their personal differences effect the teams success, but rarely do we see teams succeed when their best two players are at odds and even when we do it’s because either another player or coaching have helped the team win. Not to say Quinn Snyder isn’t a great coach or even Bojan Bogdanovic or the rest of the team can’t step up in that way, but in my opinion it isn’t enough for this season at least. Especially when you see their 1st round opponent….the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Remember after Westbrook and George were traded out of OKC? Remember when the league attempted to predict when Chris Paul would be traded and to which team? Remember when he was in talks to be traded to Miami? Well I do and I’d like to say that I knew this team had a great chance to make the playoffs, but frankly I don’t really remember if I did or not (I might’ve been too busy daydreaming of watching Kawhi and PG13 playing together for my Clippers at the time). Regardless of what I thought at the time, Oklahoma City took a page from the Clippers competitive rebuilding strategy that they used last year. While using the offseason to acquire five 1st round draft picks and Point God Chris Paul, Danilo Gallinari and sensational youngster Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (still hurts him not being a Clipper) through two mega trades, Oklahoma City was able to add major pieces to a pretty good team that is coached by NCAAB great Billy Donavan and already had Dennis Schroder and Steven Adams on their roster.
The result has been an extraordinary season with the emergence of SGA, Chris Paul still doing Chris Paul things and Dennis Schroder emerging as one of the favorites for the Sixth Man of the Year award. Not to mention they were in position to have home court advantage in the 1st round with both Utah and Houston going into the worst stretch for their respective teams this season.
I’ll be honest, I LOVE how this team is constructed and how this team operates with their three headed monsters of Chris Paul, SGA and Dennis Schroder. Throw that in with sharp shooter Danilo Gallinari and the defensive anchor in the paint Steven Adams and you have an evenly balanced team that could push just about any teams to a very interesting playoff series.
It’s hard for me to choose Utah to win this series even if the pandemic never happened and the team was in full harmony, Oklahoma City’s offense has too many threats for Utah to stop them completely and I’ll even say that this could be the series that Shai really makes a name for himself, because you have to remember that this would be his 2nd playoff series with his 1st being against the historically great Golden state Warriors where he averaged 13.6 PPG, 2.6 RPG and 3.2 APG. To Utah’s credit, they do have a Defensive Player of the Year candidate in Rudy Robert and still have a pretty good defensive team. The problem is the areas where they struggle defensively where Oklahoma City can pick them apart of the the midrange (where OKC is the #1 ranked from that spot) and even in the paint where Utah isn’t as strong as they have been in previous years.
Overall, I think this will be a fun series where it might be a measuring stick of how good Oklahoma City is and a reminder of how good Chris Paul is, before he gets injured. For Utah, it can be a series that can potentially decide if this is last time we see Gobert and Mitchell on the same team.
Prediction: Oklahoma City in six
East Semi Finals
#1 Milwaukee vs. #4 Miami
Season Series: Miami 2–0
We move to the Semi Final rounds of the NBA playoffs, where we start with a very interesting matchup with Giannis’ Bucks and Butler’s Heat. Why interesting you may ask? Well as mentioned shown above, Miami has been giving Milwaukee issues during their season series which includes a 16 point road loss to Miami on March 2nd holding the MVP favorite to 13 points!
The interesting thing about Miami is that they’ve been able to keep Giannis in check when they matchup, according to ESPN.com of all teams that have faced Giannis more than once this season Miami has kept Giannis to his lowest average PPG at 21.0 and the among highest turnovers per game at 5.5. They’re able to use length and athleticism of Bam Adebayo to make any trip to the paint, and even mid range shots, as difficult as possible, as well as have a second man to help at all times whenever Giannis has the ball to create pressure.
That’s something Milwaukee had issues in the playoffs with Toronto, not being able to generate offense or any sort of momentum when Kawhi switched onto Giannis and gave the series away with a 2–0 lead. This matchup is very similar as no one is generating any help, even his #2 Khris Middleton. Again give the Miami defense credit here as they’ve done an excellent job at defending Giannis and having Kris struggle with his shot bringing his shooting average against them at 34.4% FG and 28.6% 3 PT FG. That’s far away from his 49.9% FG and 41.1% 3PT FG averages for the season!
Without the two Milwaukee studs, no other player comes close to taking over and initiating the offense. With Giannis’ and Khris’ usage rate ranking in the top 10% in the league, there’s a significant drop off to the next highest player on the teams usage rate with Eric Bledsoe just barely out of the top 30%. Basically what this tells us is the obvious fact that this team struggles when both players are locked down by opposing defenses and Miami is the best team to have done this, having been the only team so far that has beaten the Bucks twice this season.
Now does the season series numbers mean that Milwaukee is poised to have another disappointing Playoffs? Not exactly. Though season series are fun to look at and can gauge where teams have advantages over the other, we have to remember that the NBA regular season is completely different from the post season. For starters, there will be no back to backs and that’s important to note that the March 2nd meeting was the tail end of Milwaukees back to back on the road which is always going to be tough and the first meeting was the second game for the Bucks which we shouldn’t even look at it since that’s too much time has passed and both teams are very different during that point in time.
The last thing is that the Playoffs, compared to the regular season, is where names are made and the top stars shine the brightest. Where NBA greats made their names. Where redemption stories begin. And where Giannis begins his real journey to make up for last years disappointing playoff run. I fully expect Giannis to not let his team lose before the NBA Finals and the team to be fully ready to go against any squad they face.
Miami is a great defensive team and just a well put together ball club! They have an All Star who’s been in different playoff environments, a veteran cast that has been through battles and great young guys that can contribute on a deep playoff run. The missing piece though is a true point guard to open up the floor and be expose teams weaknesses. Goran Dragic has done well in this role, but with those talks about trading for Chris Paul in the summer in hindsight, it makes me think that this team is missing a real floor general to generate an already 7th ranked offense. Not just that, but even with Bam’s very impressive year I don’t think he can slow down Giannis in a playoff series if he’s fully rested and has that fire.
I think Miami will put up a good fight and could extend this to a game seven, but I just don’t think Milwaukee will allow it to get to that point.
Prediction: Milwaukee in six
#2 Toronto vs. #3 Boston
Season Series: Boston 2–1
Last season, both teams were heading in different directions. Boston hoped the acquisition of Kyrie Irving would put them in the position to go to the NBA Finals, but due to a team wide chemistry issue (among other things) that never came into fruition. Toronto was in a similar boat acquiring Kawhi Leonard in hopes they could capture their first NBA title, which obviously they did. Both teams lost a star following the off season and were able to come out winning big! Both have rising stars in Tatum and Siakam. Both have great coaches in Brad Stevens and Nick Nurse. Both have a great supporting cast that offers a great mix of offense and defense, along with intensity. Both are in the top 5 when it comes to defensive teams.
However, only of the these two teams rank in the top 5 when it comes to offense and it’s led by Jayson Tatum. Throughout the season, Boston has been the aggressor with multiple offensive options to support Tatum and have been able to beat top teams with them. Toronto has been able to do the same, but it’s been their defense that has had been the most effective part of their game.
When looking at season stats against the top 10 ranked teams on offense and defense, Boston still has a top 5 offense and defense with Toronto struggling with the 27th ranked offense, but still having the 2nd ranked defense. Looking at it in every way, Boston seems to have the superior team with a well balanced offensive and defensive attack that is able to even give the best teams issues while Toronto’s defense does present issues for any team in the league, but unable to capitalize with their offensive holes.
I do think Toronto will make this series closer for comfort for Boston given that they’ll have home court advantage and ‘Jurassic Park’ will be rockin’, but Boston is too talented and is able to beat you in too many ways for Toronto to keep up.
Prediction: Boston in six
West Semi Finals
#1 LA Lakers vs. #5 Oklahoma City
Season Series: LA Lakers 3–0
Do you now what’s kind of crazy? This matchup will be the first time LeBron has ever faced any of his ‘Banana Boat’ brothers in the playoffs? Never faced Carmelo or Dwayne Wade (though he did team up with him). That might not be as crazy as I initially thought it was, but it took 17 years from that deep draft for the top players to face in the playoffs. Okay, well that I got that random fact out, let’s talk about the fun series that would be Lakers vs. Thunder.
I think it’s safe to say that the Lakers are overwhelming favorites in this matchup and predicting anything short of a clean sweep is disrespecting this iteration of the Lakers squad. So why would I try to debate against that? Well first off, it would be weird to have the Thunder getting sweeped after I hyped them up in the 1st round matchup. The thing is it’s hard to bet against this team on my end.
We doubted them to keep Chris Paul. We doubted them to keep the entire team together. We doubted them to even make the playoffs and here they are as a 5th seed. There could be debate to them being a higher seed with the Rockets and Jazz struggling before the season being suspended. I’m not saying that they would win the series, but they can at least take a game.
The Lakers defense is elite, but the only spot on the floor they do struggle is defending the mid range spots and that’s where the Thunder love to go to with midrange king Chris Paul. Again, I’m not picking the Thunder to upset the Lakers, but I am picking them to at least take a game before LeBron and company head to their first appearance to the Western Conference Finals since 2010!
Prediction: LA Lakers in five
#2 LA Clippers vs. #6 Houston
Season Series: Tied 2–2
Putting my Clippers bias aside, this has to be the most anticipated 2nd round series for this years playoffs. For the last few years, there has been no love lost between these two teams. From the the epic 2015 playoff collapse the Clippers endured against the Rockets after leading 3–1 to the locker room altercation led by then Rocket and former Clipper Chris Paul (#NBATwitter made this one enjoyable), there is animosity between the ball clubs historically that makes this matchup a must watch! Oh, did I forget the famed feud between Patrick Beverly and Russell Westbrook.
History aside, the matchup gives us a the #2 and #3 offenses going head to head. In the four matchups, there has only been one occurrence where either team didn’t score 100 points and that was early in the season when the Clippers scored 92 points in a loss. It’s easy to see why both teams are the hottest offensive teams in the league, Houston has scoring juggernauts in Russell Westbrook and James Harden with wings that can shoot the 3 and defend at a high level.
The Clippers makeup is very similar to Houston with have two great stars in Kawhi Leonard and Paul George while also having players that can create their own shot when needed. The big difference has to ironically what the Rockets gave away in the Clint Capela trade that brought them 3 and D player Robert Covington, the lack of a big to defend the paint against the likes of Ivica Zubac and Montrezl Harrell.
With the exception of their 1st matchup of the season, the winning team had won the rebounding battle and with a lack of size Houston puts themselves at a disadvantage with P.J. Tucker as their starting center. They sacrifice size to be able to play a small ball line up that is able to shoot from distance and guard the perimeter. The only problem is that they live and die by the 3 and with facing a great defensive team like the Clippers, it makes the job just that harder. Oh were you shocked when I said great defensive team? Well defensively they rank within the top 10 defending each spot on the floor while employing the 5th best half court defense in the league!
I still think James Harden will make this series pretty close and each game should go down to the wire, but in the playoffs it’s defense that wins out. It’s two way players that take command of games. The Clippers acquired the two best two way players in the league for this exact scenario and it looks like it’s already paying dividends as they make their first Western Conference Finals appearance in their 50 year history!
Prediction: LA Clippers in six
East Finals
#1 Milwaukee vs. #3 Boston
Season Series: Tied 1–1
For those who don’t remember (I don’t blame you, it was a forgettable series), Boston and Milwaukee met in the Semi-Finals of last years playoffs and if you compared the Celtics stars of this season to that series, you’d be in awe in the improvement to their individual games. If you compare Jayson Tatum’s, Jaylen Brown’s and Gordon Hayward’s PPG production during that season to their averages for the regular season, you’d see that their averages have improved dramatically! Jayson Tatum and Gordon Hayward have jumped up 10 PPG and Brown has improved by 4 PPG, while Marcus Smart also improved by 10 PPG though he only played 2 games in the entire playoffs due to just coming back from an injury during this series. So it’s easy to predict Boston isn’t going to be swept or be beaten in five games.
Both teams rank in the top 5 when looking at offense and defense, have stars that can take over at any point and have a point to prove after falling short a season ago. If you look deeper into the stats to include how these teams perform against the top 10 teams in the league, the story remains similar as Boston ranks 1st (114.0 PPG) in offense and 5th (108.6 OPPG)in defense while Milwaukee 6th ranks (109.8 PPG) offensively while enjoying the top defense (105.8 OPPG). No matter what way you look at it, this series proves to be one of the more competitive series in the playoffs.
Even with Boston’s impressive numbers against the top teams, do they have a shot at beating Milwaukee or even slowing down Giannis Antetokounmpo? They could employ the same strategy Miami has done throughout the matchups with Milwaukee, have an above average defender like Bam Adebayo defend him with help defenders on him whenever he touches the ball and let the others beat you rather than the last years league MVP. The issue is Boston doesn’t have that type of defender on their team. Granted they pretty good bigs in Enes Kanter and Daniel Theis, but neither are at the levels required to slow down playoff Giannis. The team may be able to make due with having multiple defenders on him majority of the time and maybe even have Taco Falls in to use his size to potentially bother the Greek Freak.
Though the methods that I just mentioned may not be the solution for Boston slowing down Giannis (I’ll admit that having Taco Falls have some playoff minutes isn’t the smartest decision), I’m confident Brad Stevens is able to find a rotation that is able to at least cause some issues to the superstar, but then you also have to be able to slow down Khris Middleton at the same time. Again, I’m confident that Boston is able to take Milwaukee to the limit, but it’s hard to argue against the defense that the Bucks bring to the table. I’m really tempted to chose Boston in an upset, but I know that it’s not Boston’s time……yet.
Prediction: Milwaukee in seven
West Finals
#1 LA Lakers vs. #2 LA Clippers
Season Series: LA Clippers 2–1
How fitting is it that in the Clippers first Western Conference Finals appearance would be against their ‘big brother’ across the hall, the Lakers. It feels like this series is the actual NBA Finals if you have listened to all the talk throughout the league since Kawhi Leonard made his decision to come to join the Clippers with Paul George. For Laker fans, this isn’t just an opportunity to take care of their ‘little brother’ in the playoffs and cut short their first Western Conference Finals appearance, but it’s also to get some “revenge” on Kawhi, for what Laker fans see as, spurning them in free agency. It’s easy to see why this is potentially the biggest playoff matchup in recent memory and it couldn’t come at a better time as both teams are among the elites in the league!
Though both teams rank in the top tier for offense and defense, they got there in different ways and employing different brands of basketball. For the Lakers, they use a combination of size and shooters to open up the paint for their bigs to clean house on the league and if defenses are able to close out the paint then shooters make them pay with the corner 3. It helps that they have players like LeBron James, Kyle Kuzma, Alex Caruso and Rajon Rondo to cut if shooters are not able to free themselves from opposing defenses or in LeBron’s case cut to the paint and while defenders crash to not allow him to take it to the rack, LeBron passes to an open big or even back out to the corner 3. This is why he is averaging a career high in assists.
The Lakers success hinges on the health of LeBron and his ability to open up the floor for his teammates. His ability to open up the floor when he drives, his passing and scoring makes the Lakers what they are currently. Though the Lakers success is also contingent on Anthony Davis, LeBron draws attention like few other players in the league.
Similar to the Lakers, the Clippers title hopes success does hang on the health of both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, which does worry Clipper Nation given their injury history’s. The difference between the strategy that the Lakers employ is that they don’t have size to leverage. They have multiple scoring options that can either take it to the hole or open up perimeter to create shots for themselves or others. The offense does revolve around the two All Stars, but the difference is that options like Lou Williams, Marcus Smart, Montrezl Harrell, Reggie Jackson, Landry Shamet and the rest of the best bench in the league that can open up the offense to relieve pressure from their stars.
Both teams have advantages over each other. The Lakers have the advantage of inserting Anthony Davis, JaVale McGee and Dwight Howard to give the advantage of size in the Lakers favor. The Clippers have the advantage of having multiple options to score the ball on the perimeter while being able to defend at an elite level with Leonard, George and Beverly being able to switch off LeBron with confidence that the next defender can make it difficult for him all night long.
I know if I choose the Clippers here, everyone reading will think that it’s my bias making the prediction. However, I would love someone to paint me a scenario where the Lakers are able to get going if Kawhi and Paul are always on him, even with the Lakers size. The only doubt in the defensive scheme that worries me for the Clippers is the defensive liability that is Lou Williams. I love the Underground GOAT, but it’s hard to make the argument to keep him in for key possessions and try to be this defensive dominate team if they use him to break down the defense. That’s exactly what the Lakers did in the March 8th win against the Clippers, but that was combined with what is Avery Bradley’s best game all season with his 24 point game shooting 6/12 3PT shooting.
I think the Lakers are a great team, but the Clippers seem to have an answer to LeBron and his ability to spread the offense. Even with the size that the Lakers have to their advantage, I do choose the Clippers to win the series. Can’t argue with the depth they have, the defensive options they have on the perimeter, the coaching and honestly I feel like Zubac will play a big role in this series.
Prediction: LA Clippers win the battle of LA in six
Finals
#1 Milwaukee vs. #2 LA Clippers
Season Series: Milwaukee 2–0
It’s easy to see the storylines that would be surrounding this potential NBA Finals matchup. For the Milwaukee Bucks, it would revolve around this being the first Finals appearance since 1974 and if they won it would break the 3rd longest title brought in the NBA. Even with the historical significance for the franchise, the main storyline would be Milwaukees opportunity to take revenge on Kawhi Leonard since he bounced them in the playoffs in embarrassing fashion last season after leading the series 2–0.
For the Clippers the storyline is pretty simple, this would be their first appearance in the NBA Finals in their 50 year history. It would potentially cement the strategy that Steve Ballmer and the front office implemented on the team since he acquired them in 2014. Make the Clippers a top tier organization and potentially provide more proof that they are or can be a destination for players looking to win a chip.
In terms of legacies, most of the players involved would be attempting to get their first ring, for the exception of one Kawhi Anthony Leonard. Already a 2 time champion and Finals MVP, Kawhi would be entering a small list of names that have won a title with three different franchises where only John Salley and Robert Horry have been able to accomplish this honor. If he were to win another Finals MVP, Kawhi would be making history as the only player in the NBA’s 74 year history to win Finals MVPs with three separate franchises and adding to his already illustrious NBA resume as one of the greats!
It’s difficult to look at this matchup without any bias’ since the season series is useless to look at, there are no teams that have the same makeup that we can use as a measuring stick for any sort of data and with the Clippers squad really only gaining momentum the last few weeks before the suspension. For this reason, and because I’m still new to the NBA data and how to use it, we’ll have to look at this subjectively (let’s be honest this is all subjective anyway) and look at these teams based on what we have to make the final series decision.
I honestly thing this series will be very close with both teams implementing top tier offense and defense, but what will potentially decide the series for both clubs is pretty simple. For the Clippers, it’ll be if they can slow down Giannis Antetokounmpo for 6–7 games and for the Bucks, it’ll be if their defense can contain the offense firepower that the Clippers have on their squad. Another defensive question for the Clippers is can they make up for how undersized they are? It’s been a question that has been asked all season and the Clippers never really addressed it. I mean they were able to add former Defensive Player of the Year Joakim Noah and still have their reliable big Ivica Zubac that has been able to guard the best bigs in the league. Will that be enough to guard the Bucks bigs? That depends on Noah in all honesty, he hasn’t played any NBA games since March 23rd of last season with the Memphis Grizzlies and has been fighting injuries for a few years now. It’s possible that the season being suspended could be the best thing for Noah now that he’ll have more time to get in game shape and learn the Clippers playbook, but I’m not sure that the Clippers should expect too much from him.
The positive for the Clippers is that the last person who was able to really slow down Giannis and knows the formula behind it joined them in the offseason. Kawhi and the Raptors were able to use a combination of isolation ball and help defense at the rim to really bother Giannis to bounce him from last years playoffs. That’s a reason why Kawhi is so damn special, his defensive awareness is just so out of this world that there isn’t a better defender in this league when it comes to it. He’s able to use his size, strength and athleticism to bother the best players in the league like no one else!
However, doing it to Giannis two years in a row will be no easy feat. Like Kawhi, Giannis is a special breed of player by using his own strengths to stifle defenses and make his presence known on the defensive end as well. It’s enough to be a contender for MVP and Defensive Player of the Year trophies this year and it just speaks volumes to what he learned from last season.
I do think that Kawhi and Giannis will challenge each other in the majority, if not the entire, NBA Finals. It’s why I think that it’ll be Paul George and Khris Middleton that shine and decide who walks away with a chip. I haven’t given Khris Middleton much justice when talking about the Bucks, but he’s improved in every major category for this team and has stepped up to really support Giannis and done while improving his FG %.
Even with injuries that prolonged his Clipper debut, Paul George has also had a good season. Though his averages aren’t as great as his MVP contending 2019 season, he’s been able to be keep his scoring efficiency consistent and is still a force to be reckoned with on the defensive end. Between the two, I might give Middleton a slight edge as I still worry about George’s injuries. However, Middleton will have to outplay George since the Clippers depth will cause issues seeing that the there’s a 22 PPG difference when looking at what both benches have been able to do this season.
Though much of the attention will be on Giannis and Kawhi, it will be the others that decide this series and that’s what makes it so tough to choose the series winner. I do think Giannis is going to show that Kawhi isn’t in his head anymore and able to do more against him, but at the same time Kawhi wasn’t completely healthy last year and is this year. I also think that Clippers bench will win them a game or two with Middleton and George potentially doing the same for their respective ball clubs. No disrespect to the Bucks bench, but in any series I would probably give them more credit to at least win a game, but when you have the likes of Lou Williams, Montrezl Harrell, Reggie Jackson and Landry Shamet coming off the bench, I’ll choose that bench 100% of the time to win games.
All in all, I do think the Clippers have a narrow edge, but the Bucks defense can be problematic if they are able to make Kawhi and Paul struggle. The same can be said of the Bucks offense though, even if the Clippers stars struggle offensively they’re able to do so much on defense that makes up for it. Giannis has that same ability, but outside of him (and maybe Khris Middleton) I don’t know anyone on that Bucks squad that can contribute to stopping either star offensively or defensively for 7 games.
Prediction: Clippers in seven
Obviously, all of this is very subjective even with some reliance on stats. I might not be taking into account how dominant Giannis has been this season, maybe Siakam explodes in the post season where Toronto makes a deeper run than expected, or one of the west teams goes further than expected. Not only that, but there’s no guarantee that the playoff seeding shakes out the way that they are currently seeded.
One thing is painfully obvious, the world misses the NBA and the storylines that come with it. Adam Silver and the league are doing their best to continue the season by planning multiple contingencies and speaking with health officials constantly to make sure that if the league resumes that it’s in the safest environment possible.
All we can do as NBA fans is debate on the best teams/players, watch The Last Dance and enjoy past NBA games that make us realize how much we love this game. That’s all we can do while we keep hope that the NBA resumes play and we can see the season play out to crown a champ.
