Andre Drummond is a Below Average Starting Center in the NBA

At the NBA trade deadline, several NBA fans wondered why not one championship contender would take a chance on Andre Drummond averaging 17.8 points, 15.8 rebounds, 1.9 steals, and 1.6 blocks per game while shooting 53% FG this season. He ended up being dealt on February 6th, to the last place Cleveland Cavaliers for the least favourable of Cleveland and Golden State’s 2023 second-round draft pick. No playoff team was willing to part with a late second-round pick for the 26 year old two-time all-star, confirming Drummond’s thin market.

In Drummond’s current form, he is a detriment to his organization. Although that seems hard to believe, I am going to try to convince you of that in this article.

Just to be fair, here is a career highlight reel of Drummond before I completely skew your view of a $100 million man (feel free not to watch this video).

The number one statistic the stood out to me was Drummond’s 18.2 Turnover Percentage (TOV%). TOV% is the estimated number of turnovers committed per 100 plays. This was the 7th highest TOV% in the entire NBA. You would expect a high assist rate for a player turning over the ball at such an extreme rate, but not the case for Drummond, who had a 13.6 Assist Percentage (AST%). The six players who had a higher TOV% than Drummond had an average AST% of 30.9.

There were three notable centers that had a comparable TOV% and AST% to Drummond, with one significant difference. Dwight Howard, DeAndre Jordan, and Rudy Gobert’s True Shooting Percentage was an average of 69%… Drummond’s was 55%. This made Drummond wildly less efficient than these players, and I’d argue that for Drummond to be a successful player on a playoff team, he would have an offensive role similar to these three big men.

Now let’s get into some of the specifics about Drummonds game.

Isolation

6.3% of Drummond’s possessions came in isolation, which was likely about 6.3% too many. He scored 0.79 Points Per Possession (PPP) ranking in the 36th percentile. Just for reference, the Detroit Pistons score 1.06 PPP on average. Here Drummond slowly crossed over to his left before he forced a drive against Celtics guard Brad Wanamaker with 14 seconds left on the shot clock.

He also tended to over dribble. For players over 6’10, the only players with a higher average “dribbles per touch” were Ben Simmons and Giannis Antetokounmpo. That means Nikola Jokic, Anthony Davis, Joel Embiid, and Karl-Anthony Tows all dribbled less than Drummond. Considering these players are some of the most skilled centers ever, in all likelihood, it was a bad idea for Drummond to be dribbling that much.

Here are four clips of Drummond over dribbling in ridiculous fashion.

Transition

Drummond ranked in the 28th percentile in transition and had a 23.5 TOV%. This was the sixth highest TOV% for all players with over one transition possession per game. The players ahead of Drummond were pass-first players, including Draymond Green and Lonzo Ball, so there was no reason for Drummond to be coughing it up so much. Drummond tended to force long distance passes like this. And when I say force, they might actually be open, but he is just not a very strong passer.

You would be shocked how many times this happened. He also tended to attempt to push end to end which looked like this on several occasions.

3-Point Shooting

Drummond appeared to have developed a strange 3-pointer tic over the past two seasons. Drummond took 38 3-pointers last season and was on pace to shoot over 40 this season. He is a career 14.6% 3-point shooter and has shot below this mark the past two years. Call me crazy, but pulling over 40 3-pointers at 14% was absolute anarchy. That is less than six 3-pointers per 40 attempts.

Post Up & Screen and Roll

Drummond took 3.1 post up possessions per game, which was about 16% of his possessions. He scored 0.91 PPP, which ranked in the 48th percentile and well below his team average of 1.06 PPP. For all players who had more post up possessions per game ranked on average in the 56th percentile.

Drummond also had a 17.1 TOV% compared to the same group of players who averaged a 14.3 TOV%. Although Drummond was not terrible on post ups, it was not a particularly good shot for the Pistons.

Drummond as the roll man was a similar story to him in the post. He ranked in the 30th percentile scoring 0.96 PPP, well below his team average.

Drummond’s touch around the basket seemed average at best. He shot 63% FG from shots in the restricted area, which ranked 55th out of 76 starting centers this season.

He also only dunked 13.6% of his shots. Far less than Howard, Jordan, and Gobert, who dunked around 45% of their shots. Even more versatile players like Dwight Powell, Bam Adebayo, and John Collins all had dunk percentages above 20%.

Here Drummond easily spun around Cody Zeller but attempted to lay it in instead of what appeared to be a clear dunk opportunity.

Defensive Impact

Looking at all-encompassing defensive metrics, Drummond appeared to be quite average. His Defensive Real Plus-Minus (DRPM) of -0.01 ranked 36th for centers this year. Last year he had a DRPM of 1.79 which ranked 26th for centers. He had a Defensive Raptor Rating of 1.8, which ranked 22nd among centers this season (last year unavailable). Drummond’s opponent FG% difference was +1.0 and ranked 30th for starting centers who played over 20 games. Last year it was -2.1, which ranked 21st for starting centers who played over 20 games. For the same group of players, Drummond’s Defensive Field Goal Percentage at the rim ranked 20th and 22nd over the past two seasons, respectively. All his defensive metrics over the past two years fall into the 20–30 range. Hard to argue that Drummond was an elite defender. The standard box score statistics like steals and blocks (where Drummond excels) fail to paint a complete picture of what is really happening.

Rebounding

Drummond’s best skill set is his rebounding ability. I won’t get into many advanced metrics, but whichever way you slice it, he can rebound. He has ranked in the top three of offensive and defensive rebound percentage for the past six years, and contains all the necessary attributes to beat anyone on the glass.

Here Drummond gained position over Marc Gasol and retrieved the offensive rebound.

Here he used his strength to out rebound three Chicago Bulls.

Here he used active hands to out rebound four Minnesota Timberwolves.

Drummond has proven to be a world class rebounder, but that is really all he has proven to be in the NBA. Besides his rebounding, he is likely a below average starting center on both ends of the floor. With his current salary at $27 million, he is grossly overpaid. To be a productive NBA player, I think his offensive role should be reduced entirely to offensive rebounding and setting screens. By being an excellent rebounder, solid defender and a low usage efficient offensive player, Drummond can transform into a contributing piece on a playoff team. Until then, his teams will continue to suffer.