How the Brooklyn Nets will try to compete with the Toronto Raptors in the first round of the NBA Playoffs
And how Toronto can make it a short series.
When the Brooklyn Nets began the NBA’s restart with a loss to the Orlando Magic in which they gave up 128 points, it seemed like Brooklyn’s season was a foregone conclusion. The Nets, after all, were a shell of their projected roster, with at least three regular starters and half of their rotation missing the NBA’s bubble playoffs due to injuries or COVID-19 concerns.
Since then, though, the Nets have been surprisingly frisky. They won five of their next six games, including two over championship contenders, the Milwaukee Bucks and LA Clippers. (The win over the Bucks, who were 19-point favourites, was the biggest upset in an NBA game since 1993.) The Nets dropped their final regular-season game — which was irrelevant for seeding, anyway — but saw more positive signs, with Caris LeVert scoring 37 points and Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot making five triples in a near-upset of the desperate Portland Trail Blazers.
There’s no point of outlining why the Raptors should, and almost certainly will, win this series. They’re -3000 favourites — an implied probability of 96.8 per cent. Forget about that. The more interesting question is, well, can the Nets compete? And if so, how?
These teams’ four regular-season matchups were mostly meaningless. Toronto was missing Fred VanVleet for the first game, then Norman Powell and Marc Gasol for the final three. Brooklyn’s rotation featured a ton of Spencer Dinwiddie and Taurean Prince for all four games, plenty of Wilson Chandler and DeAndre Jordan, and not much Luwawu-Cabarrot.
Caris LeVert
One thing about those games that’s worth mentioning: In the final two matchups — the first which came down to a potential game-winning shot that LeVert missed, the second which Brooklyn won — LeVert was excellent. He had 37 points on incredibly efficient shooting (6-of-11 twos, 6-of-7 threes, 7-of-7 FTs) on Feb. 8, when the Raptors won, 119–118. In an ugly rematch on Feb. 12, LeVert scored 20, chipping in seven rebounds, four assists and four steals in a 101–91 Nets win.
NBA.com’s tracking data (which is admittedly imperfect) shows that Terence Davis and Fred VanVleet guarded LeVert on more possessions than any other Raptors. LeVert scored 15 points against each player, shooting 4-of-6 in 25.2 “partial possessions” against Davis and 7-of-8 (in 20.8 partial possessions) against VanVleet. In just 13.7 possessions against OG Anunoby, LeVert scored four points on 2-of-3 shooting. Expect Anunoby to match up against LeVert to start the series, with VanVleet likely chasing Harris around screens. (Unless Nick Nurse surprises everyone with an unconventional switch of the matchups, which he’s done effectively several times in the past.)
Brooklyn’s shooting
That second loss shouldn’t be concerning for the Raptors. They were missing Gasol and VanVleet, and after a 15-game winning streak with key rotation pieces coming in and out of the lineup, they may have had an off shooting night (13-of-43, 30.2 percent from deep) due to sheer exhaustion.
It’s the 118 points they gave up in the first one that seems more repeatable for the Nets. True, Dinwiddie and Prince combined for 38 of those, but Harris was quiet and Luwawu-Cabarrot had an off night. Harris averaged 20 points in six seeding games, shooting a scorching 54.2 percent from deep (and 62 percent overall). Luwawu-Cabarrot scored 14.8 PPG in eight games, including 45.1 percent on 6.4 three-point attempts, more than double his pre-bubble volume. He also made four or more three-pointers in half of the seeding games.
The Nets were seventh in the seeding games in offensive efficiency, averaging 116.2 points per 100 possessions. They attempted the fourth-most three-pointers at 39.2 per 100 possessions, and they were middle of the pack in efficiency on those shots— 11th in the league in three-point percentage — during the seeding games.
Toronto shot a higher percentage than Brooklyn and also made the top-10 in three-point volume, but when the Nets were hot, they were unconscious. They made 20-of-43 threes (an absurd 46.5 percent) against the Clippers, and while they weren’t as efficient, they still shot 21-of-57 against the Bucks. When a team scores more than 60 points beyond the arc, it’s pretty tough to beat them, or a least to put them away early. The Nets can use the variance of sheer three-point volume to stay in games. They have an otherworldly shooter in Harris, along with streaky gunners across the board — including Tyler Johnson and Garrett Temple, who combined to make nine triples against the Clippers, and an assortment of oddballs who they signed simply to have bodies, given their missing players.
Toronto allows plenty of three-point attempts
Can the Nets get hot for four out of seven games? Even the most optimistic Brooklyn fan would say no, and that’s fine — this franchise’s plans surround their two stars, and their hopeful title window opens next year. Still, can the Nets win a game or two if the Raptors aren’t on their guard? The answer is probably yes. Toronto allowed 38.9 three-point attempts per game during the regular season — the second-most attempts allowed in the league, only behind the Bucks. This is no coincidence; the two best defences in the league, on a per-100-possessions basis, give up the most three-point attempts per game. Thrown in the Clippers, who give up the fourth-most three-point attempts and have the fifth-best defensive rating.
These teams intentionally bait their opponents to take those shots. In an analytics-driven league that has proven the importance of the three, time and again, it seems odd that the best defences give up the most attempts. But wait…Toronto allows opponents to shoot just 33.7 percent from outside, the stingiest mark in the league. (The Clippers allow the fifth-lowest mark, while the Bucks are 15th, which may be a concern in certain matchups.)
Allowing this many attempts can make Toronto susceptible to hot shooting performances by opponents from beyond the arc, like the 16-of-44 (36.4 percent, not spectacular but an above-average mark) that Brooklyn shot on Feb. 8. More often than not, though, the Raptors allow below-average shooters to take those shots. They contest with the long limbs of Pascal Siakam, Anunoby, Serge Ibaka, Powell and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson flying at those shooters — or else Kyle Lowry and VanVleet getting in their grill and making the release less comfortable.
The Raptors are almost certainly going to win this series, but they shouldn’t overlook the Nets. Toronto will need to lock in on LeVert, contest the many three-point attempts the Nets will take, and try to direct those shots away from Harris and Luwawu-Cabarrot.
For the Nets, this series is a time for their young players to learn and grow. LeVert gets to try his luck as the top scorer — whether he’s auditioning for the third option role in Brooklyn, or to be a key piece in a trade that takes him elsewhere. After shooting just 4-of-21 from beyond the arc in his first playoff series with Brooklyn, Harris gets another chance as a nice complementary piece. Jarrett Allen will try to show why he should be the starter up front going forward. If these guys can win a game, that’s already more than several experts have predicted.
Considering Brooklyn’s high-volume three-point launching and the variance it brings, don’t be surprised to see them steal one. Other than that, this series is what you would expect.
Prediction: Raptors in 5.
