The Toronto Raptors are serious Eastern Conference contenders
The date was May 7, 2017. The location was the Air Canada Centre in Toronto. For the second straight year, the Toronto Raptors were eliminated from the NBA Playoffs by the Cleveland Cavaliers on their home floor. In 2016, it was a defeat in the Eastern Conference Finals that went to six games. But in 2017, it was a four-game sweep in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. A step back for a team with its title contention window wide open. Needless to say, many expected drastic changes to come to Toronto after that loss.
Fast forward to the 2018 All-Star break, and the Toronto Raptors have the best record in the Eastern Conference at 41–16 by a full two games over the Boston Celtics. With the third-best record in the league, Toronto sits only three games behind the NBA-best Houston Rockets. So is this year’s version of the Raptors a legitimate championship contender? Let’s go back to last May and see how we got to where we are now.
Raptors’ president of basketball operations Masai Ujiri was certain to make changes to the Raptors’ roster during the offseason. Having lost four straight years in the playoffs, including two straight first round exits in 2014 and 2015, changes needed to be made.
Ujiri wasted no time and traded forward DeMarre Carroll and the remaining two years/$30 million on his contract to the Brooklyn Nets. Toronto then moved guard Cory Joseph to Indiana, and let forwards Patrick Patterson and P.J. Tucker walk in free agency. To add scoring to their starting lineup, the Raptors signed guard/forward C.J. Miles in free agency.
But Toronto’s two biggest free agency decisions came down to their franchise point guard and recently-acquired veteran forward: Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka.
Rumors began to swirl at the end of playoffs and early in the offseason that Lowry was as good as gone from Canada. Would Lowry return home to Philadelphia and sign with the 76ers? Would he join the San Antonio Spurs? Many, if not most, expected the All-Star point guard to leave town.
In terms of Ibaka, many did not believe that a long-term investment in a past-his-prime forward was the right financial decision for Toronto. But, the Raptors gave three years to each player and both returned to Toronto. Lowry earned $93 million, while Ibaka got $65 million. Alongside All-Star guard DeMar DeRozan, the Raptors had set their core in place for the next three seasons.
Thus far, the decisions made by Ujiri last offseason are paying off. Through 57 games this season, the Raptors have not only the best record in the Eastern Conference but also the best home record in the NBA at 24–4. Toronto also has the best record against fellow East teams this season at 25–7.
But again I pose the question: Is this Raptors team a serious contender in the East? Their playoff history over the last four years may indicate no, but the traditional and advanced stats tell a completely different story.
Any NBA stat junkie is extremely familiar with offensive and defensive efficiency ratings, as these advanced statistical categories provide fans, media members, and others with another tool for analyzing and evaluating players and teams. In fact, offensive and defensive efficiency ratings can give one a glimpse into who could lift the Larry O’Brien Trophy in June.
Since the 2010–11 season when the Dallas Mavericks won their first NBA title, every NBA champion has finished the season in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Currently, four teams can lay claim to that distinction this season. Three reside in the Western Conference: the aforementioned Houston Rockets, the defending NBA champion Golden State Warriors, and the Oklahoma City Thunder. Only one team from the East is in the same company: Toronto.
Not the Cavaliers, who are currently third in the East. Not the Celtics either. It is the Toronto Raptors who rank in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The Raptors are third in defensive efficiency (102.6) and fourth in offensive efficiency (110.7). Cleveland sits just one spot behind Toronto in offensive efficiency (110.1), but rank 28th in defensive efficiency (109.8). Only the Phoenix Suns and Sacramento Kings have worst defensive efficiency ratings than the three-time defending Eastern Conference champions.
The Celtics, who spent the vast majority of the first half of the season in pole position in the East, are first in defensive efficiency (100.9). However, Boston ranks 21st in offensive efficiency (104.4). Unlike their two biggest competitors in the East, the Raptors are more balanced and complete at this point in the season.
The statistical storyline doesn’t stop there. While the Raptors rank just two spots ahead of the Celtics in point differential, the gap is significant. Boston’s point differential ranks fourth in the league (+3.5), but the Raptors are in a completely different category with a +8.5 point differential. Only the Rockets (+8.7) have a higher point differential than Toronto. You read that correctly; the Warriors (+8.1) have a smaller point differential to this point of the season than the Raptors. The Cavaliers, for those who are curious, barely have a positive point differential (+0.2). Since the Miami Heat won the NBA title in 2012, no team with a point differential lower than +6.0 has won the championship.
This season, the Raptors are 2–1 against Boston and Cleveland. The lone loss came on the road against the Celtics back in November. However, in their wins over the Cavaliers and Celtics, both came at home in the last month and were by an average of 27 points. Toronto has four games remaining this season against both teams, three of which will be on the road. The four matchups will not occur until the final three weeks of the regular season. And, of course, it must be noted that the Cleveland team Toronto will see next month will look very different from the one it throttled on national TV in January after the Cavaliers overhauled their roster at the trade deadline.
However, there is one stat line that could showcase a liability for Toronto in the playoffs. The Raptors are shooting 35.7 percent from three-point land, which ranks 18th in the NBA. Despite DeRozan’s three-point shooting jumping from 26 percent to 33 percent this season from last, no team since the aforementioned 2011 Dallas Mavericks has won the NBA title and not finished in the top 10 in the league in three-point shooting. Meanwhile, both the Cavaliers and Celtics rank in the top 10 in the league in three-point shooting. This stat may not be as big of a concern in a playoff matchup against Cleveland because of their poor three-point defense, but Boston has the third-best three-point defense in the NBA.
So am I saying that Toronto will win the East? No. Am I saying that, according to the stats, Toronto is a legitimate contender to make it to the Finals? Absolutely. As I mentioned previously, the Raptors have been more consistent and balanced to this point of the season than the Cavaliers and Celtics.
While it has an offense that can keep pace with Toronto, Cleveland is one of the worst defensive teams in the league. Of course, the Cavaliers’ defense may improve after its midseason roster reconstruction, but it is an area where Toronto has a huge advantage. Oh, and we cannot forget that Cleveland has the best player in the world, LeBron James. Having him alone, along with a healthy Kevin Love, is the reason that the East goes through Quicken Loans Arena.
In terms of facing Boston, the Celtics are arguably a better defensive team than Toronto. However, Boston is not the offensive team that the Raptors are. Yes, they now have the incredible playmaking of point guard Kyrie Irving on their roster and could have Gordon Hayward return this season from injury to help bolster their offense. And we cannot forget that Boston has arguably the best coach in the NBA in Brad Stevens leading the way. But Boston’s bench and supporting cast is not as productive or deep as Toronto’s, which has been a big reason for the Raptors strong start this year. But we have yet to see a Boston-Toronto playoff series, and it sure would be a dandy.
Needless to say, the x-factor for Toronto being able to play in the Finals will be securing the №1 seed and home court advantage in the Eastern Conference Playoffs.
With DeRozan further developing into a go-to scorer and clutch shooter, Lowry serving as the reliable floor general and distributor, and Dwane Casey establishing himself as a Coach of the Year candidate, it is time we take the Toronto Raptors seriously. Maybe, just maybe, the NBA Finals will take place north of the border for the first time in the league’s history this year.
