Why the 2018 season is so important for the Philadelphia Phillies
From 2007–2011, the Philadelphia Phillies won five National League East Division titles, two NL pennants, and a World Series title in 2008. Since 2011, the Phillies have had neither a playoff appearance nor a winning record. However, as the 2018 season gets underway this week, there is more excitement and hope than ever that this could be the year that the Phillies return to baseball relevance. But the 2018 season is one of extreme importance for the Phillies.
The 2018 season may be just getting started, but it is never too early to start talking about the 2019 free agent class. The group of free agents after this season, highlighted by Washington Nationals’ outfielder Bryce Harper and Baltimore Orioles’ shortstop Manny Machado, is loaded with talent. With a treasure trove of money to spend this upcoming offseason and only a few players with big contracts on the payroll (projected to be $109.7 million), the Phillies are widely expected to be significant players in free agency.
Given the money that they can offer and put on the table for both All-Stars, the Phillies are certain to earn a serious visit from both Harper and Machado. While Harper could fit in perfectly into the Phillies’ outfield, Machado would have the ability to play either shortstop or third base in Philly. Given the Phillies’ front office ties to Baltimore, it is believed that their connection with Machado could be what lures him to Philly.
But for the Phillies to grab one of these prized free agents, it is going to take more than just dropping a bag of cash. While the Phillies do not necessarily need to make the playoffs this season in order to get Harper or Machado, they do have to make a significant jump in wins in 2018. In 2011, the Phillies won 102 games and captured the best record in Major League Baseball. That win total dropped to 81 in 2012. Since then, the highest win total has been 73 wins in 2013 and 2014. Its low point came in 2015 when the Phillies grabbed only 63 wins. 2012 was the last season that the Phillies did not finish in fourth or fifth place in the NL East.
If Harper or Machado is going to come to Philadelphia, the Phillies will need to show both that the franchise is going in the right direction and will return to its winning ways soon. If the Phillies can get back to around .500 and win roughly 80+ games in 2018, the pitch to Harper and Machado coming to Philadelphia becomes much more attractive. The Phillies can certainly contend for a Wild Card spot in the NL this year, as Harper’s Nationals should have complete control over the NL East for another season. That will only help Philly’s chances at landing one or both players, but another 60 or 70-win season will hurt the team’s chances of signing either All-Star. If the Phillies cannot show that they are ready to win, they will struggle to reel in Harper or Machado.
If the Phillies are going to be serious bidders in free agency, it is going to come down to two factors this season: pitching and the development of its youth.
The Phillies are set at the top of the rotation with Aaron Nola and 2015 Cy Young winner Jake Arrieta, who signed a three-year, $75 million deal this offseason. While Arrieta brings championship experience from Chicago to a young Phillies team, Nola is the future face of the rotation. But after Nola and Arrieta, there are more questions than answers with the starting rotation. While there is a lot of potential, there are a lot of uncertainties as to whether its other three starters can be consistent and stay healthy.
Vince Velasquez, Ben Lively, and Nick Pivetta are projected to begin the season in the rotation, while fellow starters Jerad Eickhoff and Mark Leiter Jr. will start the year on the disabled list. Both are expected to factor into the starting rotation once they are healthy, while Nola and Arrieta are the only two starters who are safely secure in the rotation. If Velasquez, Lively, or Pivetta get off to a slow start, either Eickhoff or Leiter Jr. could replace them once off the DL. Arrieta’s arrival to Philly should greatly help out the rotation, but it is the great unknown for the Phillies heading into 2018. Do not be surprised if the Phillies make a trade for a starter during the season if they are in the playoff race.
Offensively, the Phillies could look like the team from a decade ago that featured Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, and Chase Utley in its lineup. The Phillies bolstered their offense by signing first baseman Carlos Santana to a three-year, $60 million contract, bringing a veteran with postseason experience to the lineup. The addition of Santana at first base moves Rhys Hoskins to left field, alongside Odubel Herrera in centerfield and Nick Williams in right field. Williams is likely to platoon with Aaron Altherr for the season. Of course, the highly-anticipated Phillies debut of Scott Kingery will be something to look forward to as well.
Jorge Alfaro will assume the full-time catching duties behind the plate, and J.P. Crawford will become the everyday shortstop for the Phillies. With the departure of Freddy Galvis to the San Diego Padres, Cesar Hernandez will now hold down the reins at second base. Maikel Franco will continue as the starting third baseman for the Phillies.
However, the potential of the Phillies’ offense is also a question mark for this team. The team’s young core has showed several positive signs of stardom and greatness over the last three seasons, but it has yet to translate to wins and is still very inexperienced. Each player has showed the fans at some point a glimmer of hope of what they could become, but their success must become more consistent in 2018. The Phillies’ offensive potential will never be achieved if their youngsters do not hit and continue to develop. With the potential of Harper and/or Machado joining the Phillies in 2019, the young players know that they must perform in order to keep their jobs. But if this lineup can score runs, it could be one of the best in the NL.
One of the safer bets for the Phillies this season should be its bullpen, which added veterans Pat Neshek and Tommy Hunter this offseason. With Hector Neris as the likely closer, the Phillies should be in good hands at the end of games. Having a strong, steady bullpen is one big checkmark and step to building a championship team.
With new manager Gabe Kapler and his analytics-driven approach to baseball, the Phillies could have a really fun group in the clubhouse this year. But their potential will have to translate on the field in 2018 if the Phillies are going to turn the franchise’s recent misfortunes around.
This team can and should improve in 2018. The Phillies may not be a serious playoff or division title contender yet, but they sure can make some noise in a wide-open National League this year and let teams know that they are coming back into contention soon.
