Black Swans and Gray Rhinos Need to Be Addressed

We can’t afford to ignore the looming improbable or impossible disasters

Tom Hanratty
E³ — Entertain Enlighten Empower
4 min readOct 4, 2024

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A black swan on water
Photo by Teresa Pinho on Unsplash

Willem De Vlamingh, a Dutch sea captain, landed in New Holland (Australia) in January 1697 and sailed up a river loaded with white swans. The Dutch East India Company had commissioned him to locate and rescue the surviving passengers and crew from a ship that had disappeared two years earlier, thought to have run aground on the west coast of Australia.

“Cornelis,” he called to his son, who had accompanied him. Cornelis was a captain in his own right and a keen observer of native wildlife.

“Do you see these large, white birds floating in profusion on this river?”

“Yes, Father, I do.”

“And what would you call these birds?”

“Why, Father, they are swans. Hundreds of swans.”

“Yes, Cornelis. And what do we know about the plumage of swans?”

“Why, all swans are white, Father. The Roman poet Juvenal mentioned them in his poem, Satire VI, a thousand years ago. He said ‘Rara avis in terries, nigroque similia cygno.’

“Then tell me, Cornelis, do my eyes deceive me, or is that a black swan I see amongst the flock?”

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