NFL Week 1 Picks
Welcome to The Squib Kick, a weekly column in which I will venture down the unfulfilling road of picking NFL games against the spread as well as present fantasy advice that I am not qualified to give.
Good start fellas. I still feel like the Falcons should have won this game by at least two touchdowns. This was the right pick, I don’t blame myself — I blame Matt Ryan.
Preach, Warren.
Pittsburgh (-4.5) at Cleveland
The easy move here is to bet against Cleveland because the team that is on Hard Knocks is almost always overrated heading into the start of the regular season. However, one could argue that the Browns’ coaching staff’s showing actually made the general public doubt that change is afoot for a team that is 1–31 over the last two seasons. For all of the hype that comes with being “the Hard Knocks team,” I believe the general stink that comes with backing the Browns offsets it.
Cleveland has one of the more talented rosters in the AFC from an objective perspective, and even if their coaching staff is questionable at best, Todd Haley’s familiarity with Big Ben and the Steelers has to mean something right?
Pittsburgh is a different team on the road than they are at home, and that is even before you account for the absence of Le’Veon Bell. I imagine that the week-long questioning of the whereabouts of the star running back has taken a toll on the team, and thus they will come out flat.
Give me the Browns (+4.5) …
Fantasy slant: James Conner is going to get all of the touches he can handle because that’s just how Pittsburgh uses their running backs, but I could see Carlos Hyde being the higher fantasy scorer in this matchup— the Browns have a solid offensive line and the threat of a mobile quarterback is always beneficial to a running back … With rain and heavy winds (20+ mph) in the forecast for Sunday, I would fade away from Chris Boswell as my kicker and tread lightly with the passing attacks for each team. Obviously you are not benching Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Jarvis Landry or Josh Gordon, but expectations should be tempered … Along those lines, the Browns defense could be a sneaky play — as long as they have their testicles in the C gap.
San Francisco at Minnesota (-6.5)
San Francisco has gotten smoke blown up their butts all summer — Jimmy G compared himself to Vincent Chase, Jerick McKinnon was routinely getting drafted in the top 25 of fantasy drafts, and people started to talk themselves into the Niners possibly winning the NFC West. Minnesota, also an offseason darling, is hell to play against at home, and will presumably be playing this season with a party-sized chip on their shoulder because of the embarrassment they suffered in the NFC Championship Game.
The Niners, despite Jimmy G’s heroics, are still a year away from really putting it all together. Kyle Shanahan can scheme with the best of them, but outside of Marquise Goodwin’s Olympic-level speed, there is no offensive threat that requires a defense to completely shift its attention to. This will be the toughest test to date for the Garoppolo era — other than when he carved up Jacksonville, but that was at home — and I think that a reshaped Minnesota team will be ready to make a statement. They are difficult to score on at home to say the least.
Give me Minnesota (-6.5) …
Fantasy slant: I am trying to bench all 49ers players that I can outside of Matt Breida, who I think will be able to accumulate enough dump off passes late as San Francisco is chasing points to put up a solid day … All systems go for the Minnesota offense, including their kicker Daniel Carlson … I think Dalvin Cook approaches 100 total yards, but there is also a decent chance that Latavius Murray puts up a signature 8 carries for 27 yards with one goal-line plunge, making him a Hail Mary play in standard leagues. You could do worse.
Cincinatti at Indianapolis (-2.5)
Cincinnati is loaded with talent on both sides of the ball, and Andrew Luck hasn’t played in an NFL regular season game since January 1, 2017. I feel like I follow the NFL pretty closely, and I cannot for the life of me name a starter on the Colts defense other than Malik Hooker (who can forget someone with a last name like that).
I do think that this is a close game because of the juice Luck’s return will bring to the fan base, but if the Bengals are a playoff team — as I believe they are this year — this is a game you have to win to get the ball rolling.
Give me Cincinnati (+2.5) …
Fantasy slant: Luck will assuredly be rusty in his first game back, but I envision this game being a pseudo shootout, so he should be able to put up solid numbers based on volume alone … Indianapolis running back Jordan Wilkins has been getting some buzz with Marlon Mack nursing a hamstring injury, but I could see the Colts using the short passing game more than the running game against Cincy’s strong front seven … Eric Ebron has a road map to receiving the second most targets on the team behind TY Hilton as the “move” tight end in Frank Reich’s offense, and Luck has been prone to favoring tight ends throughout his career … Andy Dalton is my favorite QB to plug and play this week if are you someone that streams quarterbacks … I would stack him with AJ Green and Tyler Eifert in daily fantasy in a heartbeat.
Buffalo at Baltimore (-8)
Kudos to you if you are tuning into this game intently. I feel like this is the kind of game that makes an appearance on NFL Red Zone only three times during its duration, and at least two of them will be due to Nathan “The Catalog” Peterman interceptions.
I assume that the public will back Baltimore heavily, which is a scary proposition because that means that you are placing your fate in the hands of Joe Flacco. Eight points is a lot to lay for a team that is hit or miss with their offensive effectiveness, and the Bills will already have a “nobody believes in us” rallying cry behind them. I wish the line was around 7 instead of 8, but I cannot in good conscience rely on Peterman and company to solve the riddle of Baltimore’s defense on the road.
Give me Baltimore (-8), I guess …
Fantasy slant: Baltimore’s defense is obviously an elite play, you don’t have to be a genius to figure that one out … I could see Kelvin Benjamin putting up a solid performance with the absence of Jimmy Smith and the volume he will likely command … The only Baltimore player I feel confident in starting is Alex Collins … With rain and strong winds (15 mph) in the forecast for Sunday, I will choose to not rely on anyone in Baltimore’s passing game returning value. One of their receivers will score, but good luck figuring out which one.
Jacksonville (-3) at New York
Both of these teams have been overrated this offseason, making this one of the more fascinating week one matchups on the slate. The Giants, for all of their additions on offense, are still reliant on the hit or miss play of Eli Manning. If he cannot regain some form of consistency and play without fear that he is going to be under constant duress, it could be another long season for New York.
With that said, Jacksonville’s defense was insane last season, and still has the most talent on paper in the league, but I am of the belief that they are a bit overrated because of the competition they played against.
The Jaguars are good, but are they really THAT good? I am not sure, so I am going to close my eyes and take the home dog.
Give me the Giants (+3) …
Fantasy slant: Much of the focus will be on the Giants offense vs. the Jaguars defense, but I could envision the Giants defense being the deciding factor in the game, thus making them a nice fantasy sleeper. James Bettcher is a good defensive mind, and New York has playmakers at every level of their defense … Hey, guess what, rain and strong winds are in the forecast, making it more difficult to rely on the passing game for either side.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-10)
I am weary of taking any team by ten points or more in the opening week of the season, especially against a team filled with Tampa Bay’s talent. The Saints seem like an easy, slam dunk pick, but is Ryan Fitzpatrick that big of a drop off from the embattled Jameis Winston? The Bucs added Jason Pierre-Paul to an already stout defensive front seven, and I could see them keeping this game within reach.
New Orleans has the highest implied total for any team this week (around 30 points at most books), so Tampa Bay will likely have to score in the 20s to make this one a winner.
Call me crazy, but ten points feels a bit hefty.
Give me Tampa Bay (+10) …
Fantasy slant: Recently nominated first-stringers Chris Godwin and OJ Howard are sneaky plays that could find the end zone as the Bucs will likely have to throw the ball a bunch to keep pace with Drew Brees … The ageless Benjamin Watson could easily find pay dirt for anyone that is stuck between a rock and a hard place at tight end this week.
Houston at New England (-6.5)
This was the toughest game for me to decide on this week by far. On one hand, you have the Patriots, coming off of an embarrassing home loss in their season opener last season still being lead by Tom Brady. On the other hand, you have the Patriots, a team with slow linebackers, three healthy receivers, and a 41-year-old quarterback. Something has to give.
Houston has the horses to stretch New England’s defense to its limit, and also a stiff enough pass rush with Watt, Clowney and Mercilus finally healthy together to make Brady uncomfortable in the pocket. DeShaun Watson’s NFL come out party was when he nearly lead the Texans to an upset victory in Foxboro early last season, making it clear that he is unafraid of the stakes going against the Patriots presents.
It feels like the first team to 30 wins this game, and although I have a hard time believing that the Patriots will lose two straight home openers, I do think that Houston will keep things close.
Give me the Texans (+6.5) …
Fantasy slant: New England’s backfield is crowded, but I believe there is room for Rex Burkhead and James White to put up solid efforts. The Patriots love to pin their scat backs against the Texans’ linebackers in the flat, and I would not be surprised if White found the end zone through the air …
Chris Hogan is (rightfully) getting a lot of attention, but I think Phillip Dorsett deserves a look as the nominal number 2 receiver. Brandin Cooks put up a 5/131/2 stat line at home against Houston last season, and Dorsett is theoretically a similar type of player as Cooks.
Tennessee (-2) at Miami
I have to throw my hands up with this one. Miami has been universally maligned for most of the summer — nobody really seems they will amount to anything more than a 6–10 team, they lost some of their best players during the offseason (#BlessEm) and Ryan Tannehill is pretty “meh” as a starting quarterback.
On the flip side, Tennesee has been viewed as a sleeper with the addition of Mike Vrabel as head coach and Sean McVay disciple Matt LaFleur — no relation to Peter LaFleur — as offensive coordinator. Marcus Mariota has yet to make “the leap” that we all want him to make, despite showing flashes of brilliance against the Chiefs last postseason. It’s in there, it would just be nice to see some consistency along the way.
I am in the camp that Miami is going to be frisky this year — I don’t think Adam Gase is an awful coach, and he is presumably coaching for his job here early in the season. On it’s surface, you would think the Titans should be able to win this game by a touchdown, but the line being so low definitely gave me some pause.
Give me the home dog — Miami (+2) …
Fantasy slant: Kenyan Drake is a stud — that dude can break long runs and catch the ball out of the backfield with the best of them, so I wouldn’t be too concerned with Frank Gore’s label as a co-starter. Give Drake 15–20 touches (as rumored) and he will return close to top 12 value on a weekly basis … Trendy breakout pick Corey Davis’ target share is now questionable with the sudden return of Rishard Matthews, even if his snap count will be limited … With Marqueis Gray tearing his Achilles tendon, Mike Gesicki has been touted for a feature role in an offensive void of a red zone presence. Gesicki has been receiving praise from teammates and coaches all summer, with Jimmy Graham comparisons floating around:
I am starting him in my 12-team league over Ebron (and I love Ebron).
Kansas City at Los Angeles (-3.5)
Kansas City is the easy selection here — you are getting the extra half point, Patrick Mahomes might already be one of the most fun quarterbacks to have a rooting interest in, and the Chiefs are generally going to be one the best watches in the league this season. But when you look more into it, you realize that this is going to be an uphill climb.
Kansas City’s offensive line will have difficulty contending with the rampages of Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa (if he is able to suit up), and the defense, already challenged as is, may be without stalwart Eric Berry. The Chargers have oodles of motivation behind them, having lost eight (!) straight games to the Chiefs. There may be 40% Chiefs fans at the StubHub Center, but that won’t be anything new for these Chargers.
Really wish that half point wasn’t present, but I am going to roll with Los Angeles anyway. Give me the Chargers (-3.5) …
Fantasy slant: Phillip Rivers is a routinely undervalued fantasy asset — the type of guy drafted in the double digit rounds every year, is dropped early in the season for some receiver with untapped upside, and eventually ends the season as a top-12 producer. I would start him over Russell Wilson, Garoppolo, and Mahomes this week … This game is pretty straight forward: start the studs and plug in the Chargers defense if you are in need of some upside. (Feels like they either score 16 or 2 fantasy points against Mahomes.)
Seattle at Denver (-3)
I am pumped up to watch this game, and I really can’t tell you why. Both teams enter the season with certain amounts of uncertainty — Seattle because of the new faces all throughout the roster, and Denver because of their commitment to Case Keenum as their unbridled starting quarterback.
The Seahawks still have Wilson and Pete Carroll patrolling the sidelines, giving them fighting chance against any opponent on a weekly basis. But given that Denver is at home with a frenzied crowd and vicious pass rush ready to be unleashed, I think asking for the Seahawks to pull one out is too tall of a task.
Give me Denver (-3) …
Fantasy slant: Doug Baldwin is an easy sit for me, going against the best slot corner, Chris Harris, on the road at less than 100%:
I get why you have to start Wilson — you drafted him in the middle rounds and feel compelled to feel an early return on your investment, but I would think long and hard about benching him in favor of Dalton and Rivers this week … Someone on the Seahawks has to catch passes, so Tyler Lockett could be a volume-based flex play … Chris Carson is slated to be the lead dog, but CJ Prosise could be schemed for some big plays matched up against Denver’s linebackers. You aren’t starting him, but it’s something to keep an eye on.
Dallas at Carolina (-3)
The Cowboys are either going to be severely overvalued or severely undervalued for much of the season, and which side you fall on is likely dependent on your thoughts on Dak Prescott and his receivers taking advantage of teams stacking the box to contain Ezekiel Elliott.
Love him or hate him, Cam Newton seems to find ways to win games consistently, and he suddenly has the best surrounding talent of his career despite a shaky offensive line. Thomas Davis’ absence will hurt, but as long as Luke Kuechly is healthy, the Panthers defense will at least make you work to find the end zone.
I think the Panthers are a much better team than Dallas at this point, making this an easy pick for me.
Give me the Panthers (-3) …
Fantasy slant: Another straight forward game — start the studs … Michael Gallup and D.J. Moore are dart-throw flex plays if you are in need of some upside … The Panthers pass rush could get home against Prescott thanks to Dallas’ banged up offensive line, making the Panthers defense a solid play.
Washington at Arizona (-1)
My heart is fighting with my head with this one. As a Cardinals fan for the last decade, I have been genuinely surprised with the negativity being thrown at them throughout the summer. They have been pegged as a team in transition with a bottom-five roster, while I see a team that is going to play contrarian to the other three teams in its division — ball control football focused on field position and defense — and will be in a ton of coin flip games. 8–8 is a much closer reality for me than 3–13.
I am also high on the Redskins this year. As frustrating as he is at times, Alex Smith knows how to manage the flow of a game and keep his team within striking distance. There are few games where you will lose a game because of something Smith has done, it is more about what Smith hasn’t done. Washington has a funky roster that I don’t really know what to make of, but they are talented, and I feel like they end the season around 9–7.
I am going to follow my heart because I think the Cardinals’ home field advantage at the newly minted State Farm Stadium is real, but this should be a tight game throughout.
Give me the Cardinals (-1) …
Fantasy slant: Patrick Peterson will not shadow opposing number one receivers this season as the Cardinals will be playing more zone under Steve Wilks, making Jamison Crowder an interesting flex play … Alex Smith peppers the middle of the field, and I think he connects with Jordan Reed for one red zone score … Adrian Peterson is getting a lot of the attention, but Chris Thompson is beloved by Jay Gruden and should get enough touches to warrant flex consideration … Some random Cardinals receiver not named Larry Fitzgerald is going to score, but your guess is as good as mine as to who that is going to be … I would stay away from the Cardinals defense if you need upside as Smith is one of the most careful quarterbacks in the league. They will give you a solid 6–8 points because of their sack potential, but there are higher ceiling options out there.
Chicago at Green Bay (-7)
It is so good to have Aaron Rodgers back in my football watching life — the NFL is a better place when he is slinging fastballs through the tightest of windows and extending plays in ways that only he can. Jimmy Graham could score 15 touchdowns if he so pleased with Rodgers as his quarterback, and the Packers, already hell to defend in the red zone, are that much tougher to contain with his addition. The middle of the field should be wide open for behemoth tight ends like Graham with the insertion of the new tackling rules.
The Bears have been getting too much hype for a team that is still filled with question marks on the offensive end, and the Khalil Mack trade only heightened the hype. Mack’s presence could be the antidote to oppose a Rodger’s onslaught, and he should make an already underrated Bears defense that much better, but Chicago’s fate will entirely be tied to the success of new coach Matt Nagy’s offense.
This feels like a 27–20 game, and I feel like a sucker for buying into the idea that the Bears may be able to keep things close on the road at Lambeau in primetime against Rodgers.
Give me the Bears (+7), and I already regret it …
Fantasy slant: Geronimo Allison is playing the same position that Davante Adams was playing the last few seasons opposite Jordy Nelson, and yet is being viewed as a marginal contributor. The addition of Graham muddies his potential impact a bit, but I will bet on anyone that Rodgers “has confidence in” and is getting starter reps. Solid flex play until proven otherwise in my opinion.
New York at Detroit (-7)
Detroit is routinely a team that I am unable to figure out. I feel like whenever I summon the gusto to back them, they shit the bed and lay an egg at home against an inferior opponent. Whenever I elect to doubt them, they go on the road and out-muscle the Vikings.
Sam Darnold looks like a Lego man come to life:
I view this as a positive — I was a big fan of The Lego Movie and generally view Lego men as likable leaders. Could this be a good omen for the future of the New York Jets? I don’t see why not.
New York also has a funky roster filled with receiving threats that ooze with potential to boom or bust. I want to back them here, despite the contingent of the national media banking on Darnold’s success from the get-go. It is a strange reality to have so many people confident in a Jets quarterback.
Screw it, give me New York (+7) …
Fantasy slant: The Jets defense could be an underrated unit this season with the addition of Trumaine Johnson and the coaching of Todd Bowles … It feels like one of Marvin Jones or Kenny Golladay will squeak by for a 40-yard touchdown, but it’s a coin flip as to which one does so. You are starting Jones anyway, but Golladay is a nice flyer if you are in need of upside … I am interested to see which Jets receiver asserts himself alongside Robby Anderson … I have been a huge proponent of Quincy Enunwa in the past, and the opportunity is there for him to be a big target in the middle of the field for a young quarterback.
Los Angeles (-4.5) at Oakland
Based on roster composition alone, the Rams should be able to win this game by double digits, but funny things tend to happen in the second game of the Week 1 “having the time of your life” Monday Night doubleheader.
The Black Hole is going to be unusually robust — even by their standards — and that could make for a tough environment to sneak out with a win no matter how talented your roster is. I also am weary of taking the prodigee side of the mentor/prodigee relationship between Jon Gruden and Sean McVay, despite Gruden’s best efforts to member-berry his way back to NFL relevance.
If the Rams are the Super Bowl contender we expect them to be, they should be able to take care of business without issue.
Give me the Rams (-4.5) …
Fantasy slant: The Raiders are an evolving situation from a fantasy perspective. You are starting Amari Cooper because he is the clear-cut number one receiver (or at least he should be), and figure Marshawn Lynch will get enough work to suffice respectable RB2 numbers … Derek Carr will have his moments this season, but not against this defense … My favorite Rams receiver this week is Brandin Cooks because of the “new toy” factor and because he cooked (pun intended) the Raiders for 6/149/1 last season with the Patriots.
This week: 0–1
Season: 0–1
