NFL Week 2 Picks
Welcome to The Squib Kick, a weekly column in which I will venture down the unfulfilling road of picking NFL games against the spread as well as present fantasy advice that I am not qualified to give.
Here’s how I see it: Had I backed Red Dalton, he would have thrown four picks. Since I went against him, he opted to throw four touchdowns. Makes total sense.
Cheers to the shootout that we all definitely saw coming. Nice.
Indianapolis at Washington (-6)
Washington dominated from the start at Arizona, and even though the Cardinals are projected to be one of the worst teams in the league this year (I still hold out hope that they will be solid, but man…), winning convincingly in that environment on opening weekend is impressive. The Redskins matchup well on both sides of the ball against the Colts’ ragged defense and suspect offensive line, and the crowd will undoubtedly be juiced given their week 1 performance.
With that said, this line feels too high. I can’t really tell you why I feel that way — it is more of a hunch that the Colts are going to come out sparked after coughing up a victory last week vs. Cincinnati. It’s easy to forget that they were up 23–10 midway through the third quarter. And for all of their warts, the Colts do find themselves in a bunch of close games.
Like many of friends, they just don’t know how to close.
Six points feels inflated and a nod to the public diving head first into buying the Redskins as a legitimate team that will take care of business as a touchdown favorite. I’m not there yet.
Give me Indianapolis (+6) …
Fantasy slant: Adrian Peterson is a wonderful RB2 as long as his body stays in tact … I have already poured out my love for Chris Thompson this week … Both of the Colts’ tight ends are startable … I would start Alex Smith over Aaron Rodgers…This feels like the week that Jamison Crowder breaks out.
Carolina at Atlanta (-5.5)
I’ve had enough of the Falcons and it’s only week 2. I backed them last week with the idea that they were a team that had washed away the sins of the previous season. Instead, they showed up with the same questionable red zone schemes and a quarterback with a noodle arm. They could hang 40 points on any team in a given week or struggle to get to double digits and I would not raise a brow either way.
Carolina’s offensive line is a wasteland, and (somehow) Luke Kuechly escaped last Sunday without injury despite a scare. His presence at least keeps their defense formidable, and with Atlanta’s offense morphing into a weekly game of Russian Roulette, that could be significant.
The same cannot be said for the Falcons, as the loss of Deion Jones and Keanu Neal — arguably their two most important defensive pieces — will likely change the way they play defense. Jones in particular dictates a lot of the Falcons’ scheme with his speed and ability to close gaps in a hurry. It will be interesting to see how Dan Quinn elects to adjust.
On offense, Atlanta needs to develop secondary receiving threats other than Julio Jones to supplement the passing game, and they also need their quarterback to rid himself of the yips that rise as he ventures into the red zone. One would think that returning to the friendly confines of home should help matters. Your guess is as good as mine.
I really want to take Carolina here…But I’m falling for it again. This line is fishy. The extended break after playing on Thursday will hopefully be the deciding factor. The Falcons can’t go 0–2 with all of that talent can they? Plus, there’s this about Atlanta native Cam Newton:
Could definitely see this blowing up in my face, but give me the Falcons (-5.5) …
Fantasy slant: Ryan is in a great bounce back spot, so I would roll with him for one more week, but I understand any and all reservations about doing so…I have a feeling that either Mo Sanu or Austin Hooper are going to have the 5/55/1 game that Atlanta needs — I’ll lean towards Sanu…I’m playing Tevin Coleman is easily a top-12 guy without Devonta Freeman…You were already starting Christian McCaffrey, but I love him even more as a receiver with Jones out…I am all in on Devin Funchess as a WR2 ish guy with Greg Olsen nursing the same foot injury that ailed him last season.
Los Angeles (-8) at Buffalo
I really want to take Buffalo here. I think the line opened up at Los Angeles (-9) at some places, and I was hopeful that it would go up as the week went on. West coast teams traveling east — especially to Buffalo — seem to experience some crazy shit once gametime hits. Things don’t always go as we expect.
Buffalo could not have looked worse than they did last week, but that could have just been The Catalog effect. Who knows if Josh Allen is any good, and it is probably not wise to turn to him with such a desperate undertone. You’ll laugh, but I’m sure that Buffalo’s brass wish they still had an AJ McCarron-type to throw out there as the sacrificial lamb for the time being. I am expecting a whole lot of Lesean McCoy, along with a thirsty Bills Mafia crowd.
Phillip Rivers threw for over 400 yards and three touchdowns last week, but much like a baseball player that hits two homeruns in a blowout loss, it just felt empty. His receivers were no help, dropping balls left and right, but much of his production came by way of signature shot put tosses to his running backs that ate up yardage against a prevent defense.
Much like the Falcons, the Chargers showed that they may be the same disappointing outfit that they were a year ago. Buffalo is bad. Nevertheless, I think they will be motivated to prove that they aren’t that bad.
I’m just kidding. Josh Allen’s first start? No thanks.
Give me Los Angeles (-8)…
Fantasy slant: I am lower on Phillip Rivers than most. He could still have a solid game, but I have seen him ranked as a top 4 option on some sites. I prefer Alex Smith…Lesean McCoy goes for 20+ carries and a score…If the game becomes a blowout, Austin Ekeler could get some extended run, making him a more reliable flex option than he already is…Feels like Antonio Gates scores, doesn’t it?
Houston (-2) at Tennessee
Two teams with dreams of overtaking the Jaguars for the division crown matchup in a pseudo must-win game to avoid going 0–2 and feel their season unravel before it even begins.
I picked against Tennessee last week and was still surprised with how good they made Miami look. The weather delays and “start and stop” nature of the game restricted the flow and made a win a taller task but…yikes. It is fair to point out that Marcus Mariota got nicked up, but he wasn’t too impressive before the low blow that was delivered to him. “Good thing Blaine Gabbert is in the fold to run a vaunted two quarterback system,” said no one ever.
Houston was very much in their game against New England despite the struggles of Deshaun Watson and their shaky offensive line. They felt out of rhythm, and the absence of Will Fuller’s ability to stretch the field negatively effected the entire structure of their offense. DeAndre Hopkins is one of the best receivers the league has to offer, but everything falls into place when Fuller suits up.
This line is also of the fishy variety. I thought for sure Tennessee would be favored by one, and it worries me that things are so heavily weighted in Houston’s direction. I am going to bite the bullet anyway. Two road games to start the year is rough. I just don’t see Houston starting 0–2.
Give me Houston (-2)…
Fantasy slant: Start all of your Texans, including the defense and Fuller if he plays…I prefer Dion Lewis to Derrick Henry given Houston’s stout defensive front and slow linebackers…Corey Davis saw 13 targets last week, and figures to continue to be a focal point with Delanie Walker out…Along those lines, athletic freak Jonnu Smith will take Walker’s place in an offense that has been tight-end friendly for years. I am too chicken to plug him this week, but he is someone to keep an eye on.
Kansas City at Pittsburgh (-4.5)
The Patrick Mahomes bandwagon is becoming too crowded for my taste. Even though they were without Joey Bosa, he looked fantastic last week against a Chargers defense that was supposed to be one of the league’s best. I get it. He’s great. However, this line gives him too much respect.
Kansas City’s defense is full of holes even if Eric Berry finds a way to suit up, and Big Ben at home is much different than Big Ben on the road:
Not to mention that the last time he took on the Chiefs at Heinz Field, Roethlisberger threw for 300 yards and five touchdowns in a 43–14 route. Now these aren’t Alex Smith’s Chiefs, but the line should be at least seven in my opinion, so I am going to take the points and not look back.
This entire analysis changes if Ben is unable to play with a bum elbow, but he has expressed confidence that he will be ready to go.
Fantasy slant: Start everyone not named Sammy Watkins…You would have to be in a pickle, but Vance McDonald isn’t the worst dart throw if you are in need of a tight end.
Miami at New York (-3)
Fireman Ed is back baby!
I am having a difficult time trying to figure out if the Jets are any good or if that was some sort of mindf*ck. Sam Darnold looked great — calm and composed even after facing immediate adversity following his first throw. The development of Josh McCown as Darnold’s lead cheerleader is a fun wrinkle and bodes well for the quarterback’s future success. You know you’re doing a great job when you get a big hug from someone else’s mom:
Miami showed some oomph last week against a hyped Tennessee team, but again, how much of that victory should be attributed to a strange game filled with wacky weather? Lead by Xavien Howard, Miami’s secondary is slowly becoming one of the league’s most underrated, and could pose a threat to enamored Jets fans lauding Darnold as the second-coming.
Both of these teams are in obvious let-down spots following surprise victories. Hard to believe that one of them will begin the year 2–0.
Give me the points — Miami (+3)…
Fantasy slant: Quincy Enunwa! Thanks for making me good last week, big guy…Mike Gesicki! Thanks for getting bodied by Macolm Butler, big guy…I view both Jets running backs as flex options…I love Kenny Stills, but have my guard up because the target volume wasn’t what I envisioned last week and the Jets have a solid secondary. Maybe try and sell high if you can?
Philadelphia at Tampa Bay (+3)
Fitz Magic, baby! Feel the fever. What in the holy hell happened to that man last week? I picked Tampa, but even in my wildest dreams, that performance was the furthest thing from what I thought reality would be.
Related: Is there a more fun moment in sports than a Ryan Fitzpatrick scramble on a 3rd and 7 or longer? The beard flows with the breeze his strides brings forth, and the reckless abandon he runs with as he gallops towards the first-down marker is equally misguided as it is liberating. In that moment he really believes that he is an in-his-prime Michael Vick, and I am very here for it.
All of that said, I can’t take the Bucs here. The Eagles are banged up, but they are coming off a long week after a game that they were thoroughly unimpressive and still came out victorious. Tampa Bay’s secondary is so injured that they will make Nick Foles look like Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles (weather permitting), and I am going to bet that Fitzpatrick fails to combine for five touchdowns again.
Give me Philly (-3)…
Fantasy slant: Foles is a sneaky play if the weather holds up and you are in a deep league…All aboard the Nelson Agholor train while you can and sprinkle in some Mike Wallace if you are feeling frisky…Darren Sproles has been ruled out with a troubled hamstring, making Corey Clement a flex play for those that view the glass as half full. There are obvious risks involved — Doug Pederson knows how to frustrate fantasy owners with his running back rotation — but I believe in his talent and the Eagles’ offensive line…I would be afraid to rely on any Buc not named Mike Evans. Smells like there is some regression to the mean afoot.
Cleveland at New Orleans (-9.5)
9.5?! Yikes…
New Orleans is going to be motivated and play with desperation while Cleveland may be resting on their laurels because they’re off to their best start since 2004 (!). Despite that, I was prepared for this line to be around six or seven points.
Maybe I am crazy, but I can’t get passed the talent that the Browns have on both sides of the ball. Although Tyrod Taylor wasn’t great last week, people calling for his head are out of line in my opinion — the weather in Cleveland wasn’t ideal (Big Ben can vouch for that) and I think there is a great opportunity for a bounce back game ahead. Even amidst the mist (sorry), he only turned the ball over once.
The Saints’ highly-praised defense just got Fitz Magic’d, so it’s easy to assume that they are going to feast on the poor Browns. Brees is probably going to get New Orleans to 28 points, but I really don’t think it is a stretch that Cleveland hangs around and stays within a touchdown.
Give me Cleveland (+9.5)…
Fantasy slant: I feel confident starting every relevant Brown, including David Njoku…Same goes for the Saints, including former-Brown Benjamin Watson, who could score because players always seem to score against their former team. Cleveland will be very cognizant of Michael Thomas…Also, Ted Ginn! Great flex play at home.
Arizona at Los Angeles (-13.5)
Los Angeles sleep-walked their way through their game against Oakland and still ended up blowing them out. Do we have the next juggernaut on our hands? Perhaps, but we can at least come as one and declare that Sean McVay is a “football guy.”
I’m still mad at the Cardinals for disgracing their home field and laying an egg against Alex “Don’t call me Al” Smith and the Redskins. Al Smith just blew you out fellas.
Washington is solid, yet they don’t feel like a team that lays the smack-down against you in your house on opening day. Sam Bradford did a poor impression of Smith, checking down to his receivers when they had no space while generally looking putrid.
I already miss the way that Bruce Arians maximized David Johnson’s talents by having him run a route tree that resembles that of a real receiver, not relegating him to the flats. I hope the game scripts don’t get so out of hand that we lose another prime DJ season.
The Rams are loaded, but laying 13.5 points in week two against a division rival coming off of an embarrassing loss feels like too much to swallow. Too many people will be singing their praises and they’re operating on a short week.
Give me the Cards…(+13.5)
Fantasy slant: Robert Woods is my favorite receiver for this week’s version of Rams’ Receiver Roulette. I like the deep targets he got last week and I feel like he scores as Arizona occupies themselves with Brandin Cooks stretching the field and Cooper Kupp scurrying within the red zone…Who is the Cardinals’ second option in the passing game going to be? Ricky Seals-Jones could be the answer this week after Los Angeles got Moss’d by Jared f’ing Cook.
Detroit at San Francisco (-6.5)
Detroit isn’t this bad are they? I know they may hate their coach and everything, but 6.5 against the Niners? They practically have the same roster as the Niners!
This feels like a classic week one overreaction. San Francisco hung as tough as they could against a hungry Vikings team in Minnesota, and it’s hard not to be impressed with the resolve Jimmy G showed despite playing perhaps his worst game as a pro thus far.
6.5 though…
Look, Detroit is a tough sell. They looked broken not even one week into the season, just got 48 points splattered on them by the Jets (THE J-E-T-S! Jets! Jets! Jets!), and have no identity. Are they a sling the ball across the field Run’N Gun team because of their quarterback, or are they a defensive-minded, power-running team because of their coach?
Stop laughing.
Screw you, I’m taking Detroit. Call it a well thought out hunch.
Give me Detroit (+6.5)…
Fantasy slant: One of the most fun fantasy matchups of the week! With Marquise Goodwin out, Dante Pettis will get the start and go against a Lions defense that just made Quincy Enunwa fantasy relevant…I prefer Matt Breida to Alfred Morris, but I get those that have both and think Morris has the better chance to score. That’s a good bet — I just like Breida’s skillset more…I am not sure if Kenny Golladay is a reliable starter yet, but good God did he look the part last week. He either goes for 4/107/1 or 2/33. How lucky are you feeling?
New England (-2.5) at Jacksonville
The game of the week for me: I am anxious to see how New England attacks this defense without the heroics of Danny Amendola. There figures to be a healthy amount of James White — perhaps more James White than anyone would ever desire. Gronk will frolic over the middle just enough to keep the defense honest, but I find it hard to believe that they are going to take the tarp off the Ferrari this early in the season. Gotta save the knees, bro.
Blake Bortles was shaky against the Giants — this would be important except for the fact that is not exactly a new development. New England will let him snail his way down the field one crossing route at a time. The winner of this game will likely depend on who is more successful in the red area.
There has been a loud contingent riding New England, yet for some reason I feel myself leaning the other way. The Patriots are far from the well-oiled machine they become once December hits, and I think Jacksonville has the built up juice of playoff despair to knock them off.
Give me Jacksonville (+2.5)…I love this if it gets to +3.
Fantasy slant: TJ Yeldon is a fascinating flex play even if Fournette suits up…I’d start Alex Smith over Tom Brady this week…I’ll roll with Dede Westbrook as my favorite Jaguars receiver for now…I could see Austin Seferian-Jenkins nabbing a red zone score.
Oakland at Denver (-6.5)
Oakland sucks.
Denver is competent and has a real advantage at home early in the season with teams not yet in shape and facing stiff altitude. (Wow — stiff altitude sounds like a soft-core porn set in Aspen.)
This line couldn’t get high enough. (That was a Denver joke.)
Give me Denver (-6.5)…
Fantasy slant: Sit all Raiders not named Jared f’ing Cook…I’m not on the Phillip Lindsay train and will gladly buy all of your Royce Freeman stock…Manny Sanders > Demaryius Thomas as long as Case Keenum is behind the wheel.
Minnesota at Green Bay
The line got taken off the board, which makes me think that Aaron Rodgers is unlikely to play. Sad!
New York at Dallas (-3)
What a shit game to handicap. You have to be feeling yourself if you feel confident about coming out on the right side of this one. Neither team really showed you much to write home about last week, but at least the Giants were going against Jacksonville and likely would have won had Eli Manning not overthrown Odell Beckham on two potential touchdown tosses.
Dallas is running an elementary offensive scheme and have been for years. It works great when you have hogs across the line — not when you are partially hogless. I was more impressed with their defense last week against Carolina, even with if the Panthers’ offensive line is in shambles. Either way, this feels like the first team to 20 wins.
I’ll take the points and the talent of the Giants here.
Give me New York (+3)…
Fantasy slant: You would have to be pretty ambitious to start either quarterback…I am cold on Evan Engram until he finds the antidote for his butterfingers…Sterling Shepard should get enough target share to warrant flex consideration. The hope is that those targets will be beyond five yards downfield and maybe even in the red zone…Cole Beasley is definitely Dallas’ best fantasy receiver! What a world.
Seattle at Chicago (-3.5)
Second straight road game for a Seattle team that has already been bitten by the injury bug. Denver is a tough place to play under any circumstance and Chicago is not much farther down (or up? Stugotz?) the totem pole. Those fans will be going bananas.
How could you not be enthused by what Chicago showed last week? Mitch Trubisky won’t be as shaky at home, and Matt Nagy will hopefully lean on Jordan Howard more to soak up clock and sustain scoring drives. Pegging Seattle as an 0–2 team doesn’t feel right, but I believe that their record will have more to do with a poor draw rather than their own ineptitude.
They could be a prime sleeper candidate after this week.
Give me Chicago (-3.5)…
Fantasy slant: I envision a nice Trey Burton bounce back game. He certainly looks the part…Allen Robinson is feast or famine at this point, but it’s hard not to be infatuated by his upside…Does Tarik Cohen get enough touches to become fantasy relevant? I sure hope so…Tyler Lockett figures to be the best Seahawk play without Doug Baldwin. He should see the most time in the slot…Second consecutive revenge game for Brandon Marshall!
This week: 0–1
Season: 10–6–1
