Can Brandon Ingram really become a star?
About a week ago, HPbasketball tweeted this:
Of course Laker fans were big mad and I was too, at first. I’m from North Carolina and Brandon Ingram is from the same area code I am (S/O the 252) so I’m pro-Ingram all the way. However, I really started to think about it and I couldn’t give a straight answer. Those eleven words were thought-provoking for me and led me to want to dive in on BI. He’s my guy and there are definitely outcomes in which he’s a star. But how likely is that? I decided to look into the stats and watch some film to check it out.
Brandon Ingram had a tremendous jump from his rookie season to his sophomore season. By virtually every counting statistic, he improved. He improved in basically every advanced one as well. I’m sure barbershop twitter and the blog boys were happy with his development. Some of this has to do with the terrible rookie season that he had. But, he does deserve credit in the progress that he made:
The stats that jump out at me at first are the four assists a game and 39% from three. In my opinion, Ingram’s play-making is his best skill and what leads to him having a higher upside than a guy like Jaylen Brown. In the NBA, the two skills at a premium are the ability to create for yourself and the ability to create for others. Ingram can create for others very well:
Ingram ranked second on the Lakers in passes per game and was first in secondary assists. He’s a ball mover and not just an assist hunter. He’s 6’9 with pretty advanced feel which allows him to make great reads. As he matures as an NBA player, his ability to make reads will only improve.
Ingram’s shooting improvement was nice to see because he was so bad as a rookie. In his rookie year, he shot 40% from the field and 29% from three. Those numbers are garbage. The jump to 39% from three in his second season was great. The caveat with that is that Ingram only attempted 105 threes the whole year. That’s nothing in today’s NBA. A lot of those threes were wide-open and/or corner threes which are the easiest threes in basketball. However, his improvement there is notable. The three point shot is what will decide if Ingram will be a star or just a quality starter. Most of his attempts last year were catch and shoot. He shot over 41% on those which is excellent. I think that will continue to be a strength because of the gravity of LeBron James. Ingram should get even more catch and shoot opportunities, and good ones at that, with the GOAT in the lineup. The pull-up is the main shot for Ingram to work on and is what every devastating pick and roll player has. It’s what made cardiac Kemba Walker an All-Star. Ingram already has the feel and the passing acumen to be great in pick and roll. He has to add the pull-up to unlock his full potential. Last year, he shot 40% on pull up threes which sounds amazing but he only took around 11 such shots. That’s a ridiculously small sample size. He’s just not comfortable taking those shots yet. Hopefully, that’s what he’s been working on this summer with his trainers.
This lack of a pull-up hurts Ingram in the pick and roll. Last year, he was in the 45th percentile as a pick and roll ball-handler. No bueno. With no pull-up, defenders didn’t have to play up and stayed back in order to guard against the pass and the rim. If Ingram can add that, he’s gonna be deadly and a star in this league. I’m not looking for him to be Steph, Dame, or even Kemba. He just needs to be solid and he’s straight. The pull-up will be able to open up passing lanes for Ingram and it will also allow him to use his length to finish at the rim.
Now I went into NBA.com’s playtype stats and found this:
Isolation — 33rd percentile
Transition — 64th percentile
Post-Ups — 30th percentile
Spot-Ups — 75th percentile
Cuts — 51st percentile
Handoffs — 33rd percentile
Yikes. I think this is what made HP basketball tweet the aforementioned tweet. Some of this can be explained to situation, no doubt, but Ingram has a lot of improvement to do. Ingram only turns 21 just before the season so there is time for him to grow.
Partly because of his lack of success in these playtypes, the Lakers were actually better with him off the floor offensively than when he was on. Per basketball reference, when Ingram was on the floor, they had an offensive rating of 106.2. When he was off, this jumps almost two points up to 108.1. Ingram isn’t adding a lot of value yet on the offensive end. With growth in shooting, this should change.
I’m interested to see how he works off as a secondary ball-handler next year. He was LA’s main guy in pick and roll last year and now those responsibilities will fall to LeBron James. I think as a secondary ball-handler he can generate more value. He’s already good at spot ups, which helps him as defenders will close out hard. Therefore, he will be able to use his length to attack those close outs and get to the rim. He’s not elite at finishing at the rim but he was up to a respectable 67% last year. With added strength, this will be even better. That can increase his efficiency. Ingram isn’t a power finisher and uses more craft and length. LakerFilmRoom does a great breakdown on this:
Ingram also has a pretty good handle but I don’t think it’s primary initiator level. He’s got some shake though and as a secondary ball-handler, that handle should shine. He won’t see the best perimeter defender every night anymore and will be able to go to work. With three other-worldly passers like Rajon Rondo, Bron, and Lonzo Ball, Ingram should see his off-ball efficiency go up as well. At all times, he’ll likely be paired with a high level passer.
The one thing I am concerned about with Ingram is the lack of talent that LA has at the center position. Last year, 34% of all his passes went to Julius Randle and Brook Lopez. Lopez is an elite level offensive big and Randle is a devastating rim runner. Now, he has JaVale McGee, Ivica Zubac, and Moritz Wagner. Read those names again. I’m still laughing at what the hell the Lakers did this offseason (still an A+ though because they got Bron). Those players just aren’t close talentwise to the ones I just mentioned. He can run pick and roll with LeBron and Kyle Kuzma but those guys are similarly sized so defenses can combat that by putting similarly sized defenders on each player. This limits Ingram’s effectiveness in pick and roll. It’ll be interesting to see how the Lakers go about it. Maybe they’ll pick up another big during the year.
Another intriguing trait about Ingram is his potential defensively. He’s 6’9 with a 7’3 wingspan and a 9’1 standing reach. The guy is freakishly long. This length helps him immensely on defense. Last year, he contributed more win shares on the defensive end and his defensive BPM was a positive while his offensive one was a negative. Right now, he generates more value on the defensive end. Per basketball reference, the Lakers were 1.3 points per 100 possessions better when he was on the floor versus when he was off. He was in the 65th percentile in guarding spot ups and his length is a huge plus there allowing him to get out to shooters. However, Ingram’s lack of strength hurts him in isolation (42nd percentile). With Ingram, it’s not about undergoing a transformation and looking like Giannis Antetokounmpo. He’s never going to get a frame like that. However, he can get stronger so that guys aren’t yelling “He too little” when they got him on the switch. His reach already allows him to deter shots. But, stronger guys can just bully him. He’s not going to be Kawhi but he definitely can be an above average defender.
Ingram projects as a two-way play-making wing which can be extremely valuable in today’s game. In the pace and space era, you need guys who can guard multiple positions and also make high level decisions on the offensive end. Ingram has shown that he can do that. There’s no doubt in my mind that he will be a quality starter in the league. But to get that elite level value, he has to become a better shooter. His growth as a pull-up shooter is the determining factor for his star potential. Ingram’s still young but this third season could be a huge step for him in reaching that star potential. Until then, let’s enjoy the flashes that he showed last year:
