Taking the temperature of the MVP race
It’s been awhile since I’ve wrote something but this MVP conversation has me intrigued. A lot of people have been pretty certain in their picks whether it’s James Harden, Giannis Antetokounmpo, or even, Paul George. In reality though, all these guys have really good cases. Now, it’s time for someone to look at everyone’s case. I’ll be sharing the four guys I think have legitimate cases for MVP and giving a prediction of whether I think they’ll win or not. Let’s get it.
Giannis Antetokounmpo
The guy has been amazing. He’s probably the popular frontrunner amongst writers. Deservedly so. He has ridiculous stats. Career-highs in damn near everything. Over 27 points a game. Almost thirteen rebounds. Six assists. Shooting 58% from the field. 30 PER. 64% true shooting. I could go on and on. The statistical case is easy to make for Giannis. He clearly impacts winning. Leads the league in win shares per 48. The offense is more fluid when he’s on the and the defense is stingier. Per basketball reference, the Bucks are +9.4 points better when he’s on the court versus when he’s off. He has team success as well. His team has the best record in the league at 42 and 14. The narrative is there. New coach helped to unlock his full potential. Huge jump from what pundits predicted the Bucks would be. Tremendous highlights. Giannis’ case has it all. He’s defintely my frontrunner.
Prediction: Harden and PG are pushing him but I think he’ll win it. He literally has everything going for him. If the Thunder can catch up in terms of wins or the Rockets go on a crazy run, maybe they can get him. But I doubt it happens.
James Harden
Speaking of statistical cases, James Harden is on another level right now. 30 straight games of 30+ points. He’s putting up almost 37 a game. He’s not just scoring either as he dishes off eight assists and grabs seven rebounds a game. No other player is carrying the load he is. He does everything offensively for the Rockets. They’ve had a lot of adversity this year but he still has them in position to be a top four seed in the West. He leads the league in box plus/minus and VORP. He’s shooting THIRTEEN threes a game and hitting them at a 37% clip. The guy is an offensive savant. The narrative for him is improving because of the scoring binge he is on. Ultimately, I think he’ll suffer from voter fatigue. He just won last year and the candidates this year are just as incredible as he is.
Prediction: He finishes second. Voters will acknowledge the absurd season he is having but team success and fatigue will push Giannis over. Also, Giannis might literally deserve it over him.
Paul George
PG has had a tremendous season overall but he’s turned it up a notch heading into the All-Star break. In his last 12, OKC has gone 11–1 and he’s averaged 39 points a game, eight rebounds a game, and almost three steals a game while shooting 49% from the field and 49% from three. He’s on an unreal tear. He’s really good on defense as well. Per basketball reference, when he’s on the floor, the Thunder defense is only allowing 103.7 points per 100 possessions (which would be a league best rate). When he’s off the floor, the Thunder defense is allowing 113 points per 100 possessions (which would be in the bottom five). That’s a crazy difference. Overall, the Thunder are 20.2 (!!!) points better per 100 possessions when he’s on the floor. That truly showcases his value and is the biggest plus in his argument for MVP.
Prediction: I think he finishes third. He’s been great but I think Giannis and Harden’s narrative is better. Additionally, they’ve just had better seasons thus far. That doesn’t take away from how great he’s been though.
Stephen Curry
All of these guys are having great statistical seasons and Steph’s no different. He missed a stretch of the season but otherwise he’s been terrific. He’s almost in 50/40/90 territory as he’s shooting 49% from the field, 45% from three (on an unreal 12 attempts a game), and 92% from the line. He’s averaging the most points per game (28.5) since his last MVP year. He’s true shooting is an outstanding 66%. He’s absolutely the greatest shooter ever. The Warriors would be pretty amazing without him but he’s undeniably what makes them go. Without him on the court, the Warriors score a respectable 111.5 points per 100 possessions. But when he’s on the court, the Warriors score an otherworldly 122.2 points per 100 possessions. To put that in perspective, the Warriors have the best offensive rating in the league at 117.58 points per 100 possessions. Curry’s offensive rating is almost beating that by FIVE points. He’s the most impactful offensive player in the league.
Prediction: He finishes outside the top five. Everyone is tired of the Warriors and won’t give him a lot of credit. His narrative is nowhere near as fun as the three guys above. He’s amazing though and will defintely be first team All-NBA.
These four guys have probably have been the four best players in the NBA this year. They’ve been incredible this year and really fun to watch. Any one of them would be a deserving MVP. Right now, I’d have to go with Giannis for my pick. He has the best team, a great narrative, and the stats (advanced and traditional) love him. He’d be the perfect choice.
