Western Conference Predictions
With the new NBA season just a little over two weeks away, I decided to do some predictions for it. In this article, I’m going to begin with my prediction for the Western Conference standings. Let’s get it!
Full Predictions:
1. Houston Rockets
Losing Trevor Ariza hurts but his real value matters in the playoffs. In the playoffs, his main contribution was to guard Kevin Durant. His size and length was huge and he was their best option on him. The Rockets brought in James Ennis to fill that role but I’m skeptical that he can be as good as Ariza in the playoffs. However, these standings are for the regular season and Houston should be fine. In the fifteen games Ariza missed last year in the regular season, the Rockets went 14–1. With Harden, CP3, and Clint Capela still hooping for them and the Golden State Warriors relaxing, the Rockets should win around 60 games and cop the number one seed with ease. Also, if they get Jimmy Butler, watch out.
2. Golden State Warriors
Not much to say here honestly. This is the greatest team ever assembled. They know it too. So they’ll coast through the NBA season and be content with the second seed. They respect the Rockets but I don’t think they truly believe those boys can beat them. They’re cool with giving up home court.
3. Oklahoma City Thunder
I’m pretty high on OKC this year because I think the fit will be a lot better without Melo. Their defense should be the best in the league this season and it all starts with Andre Roberson who returns this season after suffering a knee injury last January. Before Roberson went down, OKC was sixth in defensive rating in the league. In the period after, OKC dropped down to fifteenth. With Melo being replaced by a more defensive minded four man like Jerami Grant or Patrick Patterson, the defense will be terrific. Russ is free to roam around and get steals with elite defensive guys like Roberson, Paul George, and Steven Adams. They’ll be cramped on spacing but the Brodie and PG13 will be able to manufacture enough magic on offense to get them by.
4. Utah Jazz
Donovan Mitchell is a bad boy. He’s going to continue to improve after his stellar rookie campaign. I ultimately think the Jazz need another creator but in the regular season, they should be fine. They’ll start Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert together which was pretty effective last year but I looked into some lineup data and found something intriguing. In 194 minutes, the lineup of Ricky Rubio, Mitchell, Joe Ingles, Jae Crowder, and Gobert had a net rating of +27.5. The lineup with Crowder replaced by Favors is a +9.9. With Crowder being able to stretch the floor better than Favors, D Mitch has a lot more room to work with. I think they should lean on those lineups even more. It’s honestly a toss up with them and OKC. I went with OKC because of star power (and my Russ and PG bias) but I wouldn’t argue too hard with anyone who has the Jazz ahead.
5. Denver Nuggets
Nikola Jokic is such a divisive topic for NBA twitter but at the end of the day, he’s really fucking good. He’s the best offensive center in the NBA and is going to continue to improve. Expect a breakout year from Jamal Murray and Gary Harris is already sooooo good. Hopefully, they get a full year from Paul Millsap which will help them a lot. It’s a small sample size of 65 minutes but the Murray, Harris, Will Barton, Millsap, and Jokic lineup had the second best net rating in the league of lineups that played together over a total of 50 minutes. They should easily make the playoffs this year if they’re healthy.
6. New Orleans Pelicans
Anthony Davis is just ridiculous and he could honestly vault them up a couple spots. If he does, he’ll probably win this year’s MVP award. The past two years AD has played 75 games so I don’t buy the injury concerns. Last year, he dropped 28 points a game, grabbed 11 boards a game, and almost blocked three shots a game. MAN. That boy good. Jrue Holiday had his breakout in the playoffs when he made Damian Lillard his son so he’s going to bring his usual great two-way play. The biggest concern with NOLA is their lack of shooting as only two guys (E’Twuan Moore and Darius Miller) shot above 34% from three last year. With a presence like AD, you want to surround him with as many shooters as possible. Because of AD though, you can pencil them in a playoff spot.
7. Los Angeles Lakers
The fit with this team is weird for me but LeBron James could make me look stupid with this ranking. I’ll never bet against him making the playoffs though. The young guys will be fun to watch especially next to Bron. Brandon Ingram specifically should benefit a lot:
The Lakers were second to last in the league in three point shooting last year and didn’t do much to improve that this offseason. Svi Mykhailiuk is a rookie that can really stroke it but not sure if he should be playing that much because of his other deficiencies. Nevertheless, this Laker team will be a fun one to watch. I trust Bron to figure it out.
8. San Antonio Spurs
I can’t go against Coach Pop. The Spurs have made the playoffs for the last 21 YEARS. That’s so crazy. DeMar is overrated by some (Kyle Lowry was the best player on those Raptor teams) but he’s still really good. He became a much better play-maker last year which helped him become more valuable. He began the three point experiment also and hopefully he improves even more this year. Aldridge is still really good. Derrick White and Dejounte Murray should be fun. The Spurs will be pretty old school but I trust Pop and I have them just sliding in the playoffs.
9–16:
I’ll probably get some shit from Blazer fans but I’m not a huge believer in them. Dame and CJ are great but they didn’t improve from last year’s team. They finished third in the West last year but their net rating would’ve placed them eighth. With the improvement of other teams, I think they’ll be the team to drop out. Minnesota will lose Jimmy Butler and they’ll fall off a cliff. KAT is great but Jimmy was their team last year. In the month before he went down, Minnesota had a +4.6 net rating. In the first month he was out, Minnesota had a -2.1 net rating. He’s so valuable. The Clippers and Grizzlies will be solid but lack the the star power that the teams ahead of them have. Phoenix and Dallas are gonna be fun with Booker and Ayton and DSJ and Luka but they’re still way too young. The Kings are the Kings.
