Evaluating the Big 12 Expansion Candidates
The Big 12 announced during its media days this week that the conference will begin evaluation potential candidates for expansion. I’ve gone ahead and outlined some of the pros and cons of the schools I think are the major contenders.
Boise State
Why they fit: The Broncos have the most consistent football program on this list with an FBS-leading 176–32 record since 2000. Chris Petersen turned them into somewhat of a national brand, and the Big 12 has expressed a desire for adding teams that don’t dilute the conference’s level of competition. Boise State would ultimately improve Big 12 football more than most candidates.
Why they don’t: A lot of reasons. For one, the school, which was still a junior college in the 60s, has arguably the worst academics of any candidate. It’s also not in a huge media market (No. 107) and the athletic programs outside of football leave a lot to be desired. Boise also is way outside the conference’s geographic footprint and really only make sense if the Big 12 adds another team from the West.
BYU
Why they fit: No program on this list has the national clout that BYU does. Its alumni base and relationship with the LDS Church gives it a huge fan base, and the facilities there are top-notch (football stadium would be second-largest in the Big 12). The school’s market (No. 34) and academics (66) would also be above-average for the conference. Plus, its fans made this nifty interactive website to state BYU’s case.
Side note: BYU will always hold a special place in my heart since they were the first team I ever saw TCU play in person.
Why they don’t: Like Boise State, BYU would force the Big 12 out of its geographic footprint. The school also has a policy that keeps its athletes from playing on Sundays, which makes it more likely as a ‘football-only’ program. BYU is also a little like Texas (hard to work with) in how it runs things and views itself, something members of the Big 12 may not want to deal with.
Central Florida
Why they fit: UCF is going to have an enormous alumni base in a few years. The school, which had 60,821 enrolled students last fall, is enormous and offers a lot of potential down the line, especially in a fertile recruiting ground like Florida. Its market ranking (No. 19) is one of the highest on the list, and the Knights showed they could compete nationally when they won the Fiesta Bowl in 2013.
Why they don’t: There are a lot of concerns about the football program after UCF went 0–12 last season. UCF will likely always be the fourth program in Florida (behind UF, FSU and Miami), and its facilities aren’t spectacular. Expanding into Florida would be nice, but it might not be needed when the conference already has such deep roots in Texas.
Cincinnati
Why they fit: Geographically, Cincinnati probably makes the most sense for the current Big 12. The Bearcats could serve as a travel partner for West Virginia, which is sorely needed, and their market is nationally ranked 36th, which is just above average. Getting into the Ohio area would be nice for the Big 12, since it doesn’t have any eyeballs there currently, and Cincinnati has been very solid in both football and basketball.
Why they don’t: The main concern with Cincinnati is that Ohio State will always be the main team in Ohio. Would the Big 12 gain that much by adding the Buckeyes’ little brother? It’s not like Ohio is a high school football hotbed, either, so Cincinnati wouldn’t add that much toward recruiting.
Colorado State
Why they fit: The Rams would make the most sense if the Big 12 wanted a partner for BYU toward the West. Adding Colorado State could help the conference get into the Denver market, and the school is in the process of building a sweet new football stadium. Plus, let’s be honest: football road trips to Fort Collins would be so much fun.
Why they don’t: Colorado State is still Colorado’s little brother, and the Big 12 might be a little hesitant to settle for the smaller version of a school that already left them for the Pac-12. The Rams football team had a 10-win season before Jim McElwain left, but it’s hard to say how they’ll look going forward (they went 7–5 last season). There’s a lot of potential there, but it’s still unfulfilled potential for now.
Houston
Why they fit: The Coogs are appealing for a number of reasons. They’re located in the highest-rated market among candidates (No. 10), have a track record of football success (two 13-win seasons since 2011) and are upgrading their facilities quite a bit. They could help replenish part of the market the Big 12 lost when Texas A&M bolted for the SEC. It also helps matters that Texas president Greg Fenves appears to be backing Houston now.
Why they don’t: Houston would easily be the best candidate if the city of Houston were located in a different state. There might be questions about the conference’s willingness to add another Texas school for recruiting and conference footprint reasons.
Memphis
Why they fit: Along with having a very Big 12 culture and decent-sized market (No. 50), Memphis’ most valuable asset is its relationship with FedEx. The school pledged to make FedEx a sponsor of the Big 12’s title game if it’s included. The Tigers also have a sterling basketball program and a football program on the rise. They’re also expected to invest $500 million in academics and athletics over the next five years.
Why they don’t: Memphis football had been a doormat for a long time before Justin Fuente arrived as head coach, and he’s now departed for Virginia Tech. The last thing the Big 12 needs is a school that can’t compete in football (sorry Kansas), and the school’s academics aren’t rated high enough to make up for it.
UCONN
Why they fit: UCONN is somewhat of a national brand, especially in basketball, something the Big 12 could definitely use going forward. Its market is ranked 30th nationally and UCONN has a very good academic reputation. If the decision comes down to the Big 12 presidents, I can see why they might favor a high-academic school like UCONN that won’t be much of a threat in football.
Why they don’t: While UCONN’s market isn’t big, it has the lowest viewership in its respective market of any of the candidates. There are major questions about whether or not the Huskies could compete in the Big 12 and if them being included could make the conference weaker competitively. It’s also even farther than West Virginia already is, expanding the conference a little too far east geographically.
What I want to happen: If it were up to me, I’d have the Big 12 expand to 14 with Houston, Memphis and Cincinnati all receiving full membership. BYU would also join the conference as a football-only member, unless the Big 12 can find a way to work around the ‘no Sundays’ thing for sports not named football. I think those four make the conference the strongest it can be going forward and having 14 teams negates some of the issues presented with having five Texas teams. Plus, the Big 12 already owns rights to the ‘Big 14’ name, so it’d be an easy change brand-wise.
Make it happen, Big 12.
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