Who Will Be College Football’s Best in Texas?
College football is more of a religion than a sport in the state of Texas, so I’ve gone ahead and outlined my predictions for where I think the major Texas programs will finish in 2016.
Note: These predictions are simply for the regular season. They don’t take into account possible championship game appearances or bowl games, so keep that in mind.
No. 1: TCU (11–1, 8–1 Big 12)
Losses: at West Virginia
There are plenty of reasons to think TCU will be even better than it was in its 2015 campaign.
The main one is the sheer amount of depth this team brings to the table. The Frogs had 22 players miss some amount of time last season due to injury, forcing them to play 30 true and redshirt freshmen. That team still finished 11–2 and was a two-point conversion against Oklahoma away from potentially being in the playoff conversation. With almost all of those injured players back in the mix again, TCU returns a ton of experience. I’ve watched enough TCU football to know Gary Patterson + experience = bad for everyone else.
While the losses of quarterback Trevone Boykin and wide receiver Josh Doctson cannot be understated, the offensive coordinator combo of Doug Meacham and Sonny Cumbie, armed with a loaded corps of experienced receivers and talented newcomers, should still be able to produce an offense potent enough to compete against the best of the Big 12. This is especially true if Kenny Hill is as good as Gary Patterson has been touting since Hill arrived in Fort Worth before last season. The defense should be worlds better than last year’s team, possibly the best in the conference, and the schedule is pretty favorable for the Frogs.
This opinion will likely be divisive to some, but I think TCU manages to upset Oklahoma at home for the second consecutive time. The Frogs have been world-beaters at home the past two seasons (13–0 record, 46.3 points per game), and the TCU-OU game is sandwiched between two emotional ones for the Sooners: a home game against Ohio State and the Red River Rivalry game against Texas.
My guess is that TCU’s only loss in 2016 comes at the hands of West Virginia in Morgantown. The Frogs and Mountaineers have had a bit of a rivalry brewing since the two teams joined the Big 12. Before last season, every game between TCU and West Virginia since 2012 had been decided in the final seconds of regulation or in overtime. That game, which will likely be close until the end, could be the lone blip on what should be another Big 12 title contender for TCU.
Team MVP: Kenny Hill, QB, RS Junior
No. 2: Texas Tech (9–3, 6–3 Big 12)
Losses: at TCU, Oklahoma, at Oklahoma State
If football were only played on one side of the ball, Texas Tech might have one of the best teams in the country.
Patrick Mahomes, a quarterback I firmly believe as one of the best out there, returns to Lubbock for his junior year. While the Red Raiders lost a few weapons on offense, most notably do-it-all receiver Jakeem Grant, to graduation and the NFL Draft, offense still shouldn’t be the problem.
Texas Tech’s actual problem is on defense.
While the Red Raiders scored 45.1 points per game last season, they also allowed 43.6 (!) points per game. The addition of defensive coordinator David Gibbs should help a bit, but I just don’t see how Texas Tech is going to consistently stop teams without any notable playmakers on defense.
My prediction is Tech looks a lot like 2015 TCU: spectacular offense, inconsistent defense and a whole lot of exciting games.
That said, I think great offensive play will be enough to lock down the spot as the second-best team in Texas this season. If the defense is even slightly better (and how could it not be), the Red Raiders can come out of 2016 with nine or 10 wins. Their trip to Fort Worth will be an interesting litmus test to see how much they’ve grown in two seasons. The last time the Red Raiders played in Amon G. Carter Stadium, TCU ran out of fireworks as the Frogs dropped 82 on Texas Tech.
If nothing else, Texas Tech is going to be an exciting team you should watch every week. Points on points on points.
Team MVP: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Junior
No. 3: Houston (9–3, 7–1 American)
Losses: Oklahoma, at Cincinnati, Louisville
The Houston Cougars are entering their 2016 campaign with arguably the most hype of any of the teams on this list and rightfully so.
The Coogs had one of the best seasons in school history last season, finishing 13–1, the best record in Texas, with a win over No. 9 Florida State in the Peach Bowl; They have a Heisman contender in quarterback Greg Ward Jr. and start the season with a highly anticipated matchup against Oklahoma at NRG Stadium. If they win that one, many believe Houston has a great shot at the playoff.
I just don’t see it.
For one, Houston has to replace one of its best offensive weapons, wide receiver Demarcus Ayers, and two of its best defensive players, linebacker Elandon Roberts and cornerback William Jackson III. The Cougars also benefited from eking out a bunch of close wins last season, and I’m not sure they can repeat that success in 2016. I’m expecting a few of those close wins to turn into close losses, changing a spectacular season into just an above average one. I also have major concerns about Greg Ward’s ability to stay healthy throughout the season, something he struggled with in 2015.
I think they’ll be heavily outmatched against a high-powered Oklahoma team that is simply bigger, faster and stronger. A rough loss to the Sooners starts the season on a bad note that could hurt the rest of the way. I have Houston dropping one to Gunner Kiel and Cincinnati, a team they almost lost to last season, two weeks later. The Cougars certainly have enough talent to win plenty of games against a relatively weak American conference slate, but I think they also lose to a very talented Louisville team in November.
Not a bad season by any means, but one that may leave a bad taste in Houston fans’ mouths after so much preseason hype.
Team MVP: Greg Ward Jr., QB, Senior
No. 4: Baylor (8–4, 5–4 Big 12)
Losses: Oklahoma State, TCU, at Oklahoma, Texas Tech
Baylor’s issues this offseason are well documented at this point. With Art Briles out due to the school’s massive sexual assault scandal, it’s safe to assume the punching bag-turned-powerhouse program will look vastly different the next few seasons. But by how much?
Some seem to think the Bears, which return the rest of their coaching staff minus Art and a lot of important skill players on offense, will still play at a level high, enough so to contend for a Big 12 title. Mostly the same players. Mostly the same scheme. Mostly the same success, right?
Eh.
Leaving my personal feelings on Briles out of this, I have far too much respect for him as a football coach to think that the Bears’ offense, which has been one of the best in the country the last few seasons, won’t experience any fall-off under interim coach Jim Grobe.
I still think quarterback Seth Russell, who returns from a scary, season-ending neck injury, is one of the best players in the Big 12, but I’m just not confident Baylor will be the same level it has been the past few seasons. Plus, the team loses a lot in the trenches on both sides (notably offensive tackle Spencer Drango and defensive tackle Andrew Billings), which has a proven track record at ruining a lot of otherwise good teams.
Baylor won’t be anywhere near the bottom of its conference. Quite the opposite, in fact, but I have a hard time seeing them winning against the best in the conference (Oklahoma, TCU, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State).
There are simply too many question marks and too much opportunity for the team to collapse under the pressure of Briles’ absence. The Bears are still a team a lot of opponents should fear taking the field against because of the program Briles built, but I think eight wins is about this team’s ceiling.
Team MVP: Seth Russell, QB, Senior
No. 5: Texas A&M (7–5, 4–4 SEC)
Losses: UCLA, Arkansas, Alabama, Ole Miss, LSU
After winning 11 games with Johnny Manziel in 2012 and suddenly convincing the country they’re a national power, Texas A&M hasn’t lived up to its high expectations while playing in the nation’s best conference.
The Aggies have won seven or eight games each of the last three seasons, and I don’t expect that trend to change in 2016.
A&M certainly isn’t without talent: The team has one of the best defensive players in the country in All-American defensive end Myles Garrett, who led the SEC in sacks (12.5), tackles for loss (19.5) and forced fumbles (5), and an extremely dynamic playmaker on offense in wide receiver Christian Kirk. Their team is filled with highly-recruited players all over the depth chart.
But those stars don’t mean a whole lot when the team is still filled with so many question marks.
No head coach on this list has a hotter seat than Kevin Sumlin (yes, even Charlie Strong), and the team’s hopes rest with a talented-yet-possibly broken quarterback in grad transfer Trevor Knight. While Knight showed signs of greatness in 2013 when he went for 348 yards and four touchdowns on Alabama in Oklahoma’s 45–31 Sugar Bowl win, he hasn’t been the same guy since a spinal injury in 2014.
And, let’s be honest, no team on this list has a tougher schedule than the Aggies. I think they win seven or eight games once again with losses to some of the best in the SEC.
Maybe this’ll be the year they finally beat LSU, but probably not.
Team MVP: Myles Garrett, DE, Junior
No. 6: Texas (6–6, 4–5 Big 12)
Losses: Notre Dame, at Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, at Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU
Speaking of misplaced hype, the final team on my list is the Texas Longhorns.
Every offseason, the national media tries to convince itself that Texas is back. This year it’s because freshman quarterback Shane Buechele had a good spring game, and the Longhorns have a new offensive coordinator who will implement an up-tempo, Air Raid scheme, even though they missed out on the guy they actually wanted.
Spoiler, guys: Texas is not back.
Look, I get it. Texas had some good moments last year, namely upsetting playoff team Oklahoma and beating Baylor 23–17 in Briles’ final game at McLane Stadium. But there were far more bad moments than good.
We’re talking about basically the same team that lost by 35 in its season opener to Notre Dame.
We’re talking about basically the same team that was down 47–0 to TCU after three quarters.
We’re talking about basically the same team that got shutout 24–0 by lowly Iowa State, who won three games last year.
This was a team that looked flat-out awful at moments last season. When TCU went 4–8 in 2013, the year before they brought in Meacham and Cumbie and proceeded to go 12–1, that team was at least competitive in every game. They were able to make such a seemingly drastic transformation because the team was already a lot better than its record indicated.
Texas won five games last season, and they were honestly lucky it wasn’t three.
It’s Texas, so the Longhorns have talent, like stud linebacker Malik Jefferson (61 tackles, seven tackles for loss and 2.5 sacks) and running back Chris Warren, but I’m not convinced that talent has developed into anything resembling an above average football team this year. A lot of people think Texas can win nine or 10 games this year, but I think they’re focusing more on the name and less on the product on the field.
At this present moment, I have no reason to believe the Longhorns can win any more than six games. And that might be a little generous.
Team MVP: Malik Jefferson, LB, Sophomore
Have a problem with these rankings, or just want to share your thoughts? Good. That’s the best thing about college football.
Hit me up on Twitter @JordanLRay or on The Summit Media Network’s official Twitter page @SummitNetworkTX.
