OP-Ed: Will The Houthi and IRGC Attacks Start A New War?
Written by Ethan Tsai and Edited by Santi Gaete
Tehran — Jan. 16 — As Israel’s war with Hamas continues, both the Yemeni Houthi terrorist group and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IGRC) have begun taking action to capitalize on widespread anti-Israeli sentiment, both regionally and globally. Many are afraid of further violence, with news sources warning of “increasing instability,” but do we truly need to be worried about a potential second war in the Middle East?
Around two weeks ago, the Houthis (an Iranian proxy group) began launching missiles at cargo ships traversing the Red Sea, which along with the Suez Canal, connects the Mediterranean Sea to the Indian Ocean. This aggression has forced many ships to take much longer routes to avoid potentially being sunk, although after the US and UK recently launched air strikes against Houthi bases, trade has somewhat normalized. Meanwhile, after the ISIS bombing of ex-IRGC commander Qasem Soleimani (which Iran later blamed on Israel), the IRGC proceeded to send missiles to attack ISIS targets in Syria, striking an Iraqi residential block, claiming it to be an Israeli spy base. No evidence has emerged yet to support this claim, and their attacks have drawn global condemnation.
Fortunately, while both incidents have certainly caught media attention, it seems unlikely that either situation will explode into a new major conflict. While the Houthis have engaged in direct conflict with Western forces, the threat of the United States’ and United Kingdom’s overwhelming power combined with their relative restraint suggests that low-level fighting won’t be escalated by either side. Iraq has protested the attack into its territory, and the previously strong diplomatic relationship between Iraq and Iran will likely allow any disputes to be resolved peacefully.
The Middle East as a whole has certainly become more dangerous and turbulent after the Israel-Hamas conflict broke out, due to the surge in anti-Western and anti-Israeli sentiment across the region. So while these events have absolutely made things worse for the Middle East, and have threatened to destabilize the current peace, the potential of a new massive war breaking out is unlikely for now.
January 18 Update: Recent strikes by Pakistan and Iran across each other’s borders has drawn international fear of another escalating war zone. However, it has been determined that both sets of strikes were at Balochistan resistance groups within their respective borders. Therefore, there is no danger of escalation, as these strikes were likely an agreement between Pakistan and Iran to attack each other’s opposition militias, to avoid local retaliation.
