What Washington and Idaho Can Tell Us About the Upcoming Oregon Primary
By Camden Maggard
This article was originally published on March 15th, 2020.
The Oregon Democratic primary for the 2020 presidential race will occur on May 19th, near the end of the primary calendar. However, on March 10th, Idaho and Washington, two states with similar demographics and culture, voted, and the results of both primaries can give us insight into what may happen here in Oregon come May.
In Idaho, 100% of the results are in, and they show Joe Biden winning with 49% of the vote; Bernie Sanders is in second place with 43%. Oregon’s second congressional district (located on the east side of the state) is very similar to Idaho, mostly rural, with small to medium sized towns and cities gathered clusters. Both areas also lean fairly conservative, especially compared to the Portland metro area. This likely means that Oregon’s second congressional district will go to Biden, but not by a wide margin.
In Washington, only 67% of the vote is in, and we have to consider this when evaluating the results.* Younger voters, a demographic that is heavily pro-Sanders, tend to vote late; however, exit polls show that Biden is winning among late deciders in the state. Therefore, the results in Washington should be approached with some precaution. As a whole, the tentative results in Washington show both Sanders and Biden at 33%, with Sanders leading by a fraction of a percentage point. Since Washington allows early-mail voting, some voters voted for candidates who have dropped out in recent weeks, such as Elizabeth Warren and Michael Bloomberg.
These results are notably different than in 2016, when Sanders carried Washington with 73% of the vote. In comparison, he won Oregon with 56%. The dynamic between Sanders and Biden is different than it was in 2016 when Clinton was Sanders’ competitor, but this alone doesn’t account for the difference in results. Biden, who has seen the party coalesce around him in the last few weeks, has gained a lot of momentum, which has allowed him to do well with late deciders. Also, in 2016, Washington held a caucus instead of a primary, and Sanders did significantly better in caucus states than primaries in 2016. This may account for some of the reason that Sanders did better in Washington than Oregon, but there is no way to figure how significant of a factor it was.
Like Oregon, Washington has many distinct cultural and geographical regions, and as a whole the sum looks quite similar to that of Oregon, with one large, liberal city in the west and a number of smaller, rural cities in the south and east. However, Washington has more medium-sized cities than Oregon does, such as Spokane, Vancouver, and Tri-Cities, and a slightly lower large city to non-large city ratio. To evaluate Washington’s results, it is helpful to break it down by county to see how each area voted.
The vote in Seattle is extremely close — this is important, since Portland (which is both demographically similar and the largest population center in Oregon) will likely have similar results. This isn’t a surprise, since Sanders tends to do well with both younger voters and liberals, both of which tend to live in large cities; yet, Biden does well with suburban voters, a demographic also present within city boundaries. Sanders also did well in a lot of rural Washington, which may be a positive for the Vermont senator when it comes to Oregon’s results. A lot of Biden’s wins happened in cities such as Spokane and Vancouver, as well as Seattle suburbs; these medium-sized cities are less numerous in Oregon. However, if you look at the placement of the counties in Washington, you’ll notice that a lot of Biden’s wins happened along the Oregon-Washington border. Vancouver, in particular, is significant, since it is a part of the Portland Metro area.
It is important to keep in mind that, as more results come in, Biden’s standings will likely improve, because of his success among late voters. Who gains momentum in the next month or so will likely experience this sort of advantage in Oregon, and it is indeterminable at this point which candidate may experience that sort of momentum. Oregon, like Washington, will likely be a toss-up, because of these unknown factors and the closeness of results of both other Northwestern states primaries. Both remaining major candidates could have reason for hope based on the results of the Washington and Idaho primaries. The race will likely be close if no significant movement occurs before May, and the delegates will be split fairly evenly.
This raises the question of how significant the Oregon race is on the national scale — the contest is extremely late in the primary calendar, and by the time it votes the eventual nominee will likely be largely decided. By that time, a candidate may even have a delegate majority. Neither candidate is set to net a large number of delegates from the state, either, which makes it of very little value to the race as a whole. Is it democratic to have some states vote earlier than others? Can certain early states be representative enough to justify the staggered dates of the primary calendar? If you ask most Oregonians, you’ll likely hear “no” for an answer.
*Since this article has been written, the majority of Washington’s results (94%) have come in, showing Biden with a two point lead. This is within range of the estimates made in the article.
