Why every sprint takes 40% longer than last year

Every sprint takes longer than the last. After analyzing over 200 organizations, I’ve seen this pattern repeat with mathematical precision. Not because teams get worse, but because friction compounds invisibly beneath the surface.

The pattern crystallized for a scale-up diagnosing why their five-day feature took three weeks. The code itself? Maybe 15000 lines. But nobody knew what would break if they changed it. Documentation didn’t exist. The original developer was gone long ago. Each decision required archaeology instead of engineering.

That’s why I believed the problem was systemic. Different industries, same hidden forces destroying velocity.

The velocity equation usually forgotten

Forget story points.

Here’s what actually determines your delivery speed:

Actual Delivery Time = Value Time + Friction Time

Simple, right? But here’s what most non-technical stakeholders never see, and what even technical leaders often miss.

When your CPO asks “why did this feature take three weeks?”, they’re only seeing the tip of the iceberg — the final UX and code that got shipped. They don’t see the archaeological dig through undocumented systems, the three failed attempts…