Tech Caucus 3/2: Livestream Wars, Tech Under Trump, and Tech’s Favorite VCs and Celebrities

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(Adapted from this week’s Tech Caucus newsletter. Subscribe to get the Tech Caucus in your inbox first.)

Friends,

Notice something different? :-) I’ve moved The Tech Caucus to Mailchimp, and thus we have an upgraded design. Our little newsletter is growing up! Send me your feedback — what else should I do? Another question I have for you: Should I keep Tech Caucus one long newsletter per week or should I make it two smaller emails per week?

For our new subscribers: Tech Caucus is a weekly newsletter where I, your curator, poll the leading investors, founders, execs, and journalists of the tech industry anonymously on the real issues and stories impacting tech. I ask them to name names and weigh in on hard issues like income inequality or the current startup market. The full list of Caucus members is at the bottom of every email, but their quotes are always anonymous.

So some quick updates: this week we have our very first sponsor, LaunchPad Lab! You can learn more about them in their sponsorship slot below. I hope you’ll support The Tech Caucus by visiting LaunchPad’s website!

Second, I am also opening up the Caucus to new membership. We will be adding SIX new members. If you would like to nominate someone, please either email me or tweet meyour nomination.

Finally, I’ll be keynoting the CMO Summit in Austin on April 4th, so if you’re in Austin, shoot me a note and let’s meet up. Unfortunately, I don’t plan to be at SXSW this year.

As always, here’s this week’s content (with anchor links!):

• Which Tech Company Will Win the Livestreaming Wars?
• Tech Under a President Trump
• LaunchPad Labs (Sponsor)
• Tech’s Favorite Venture Capitalists
• Which Celebrities Should Be Tech Investors?
• Interesting Links of the Week
• Commentary From the Peanut Gallery
• Members of the Caucus

1) The Livestreaming Wars: Who’s Going to Win?

The fight is on for live video supremacy. Again.

Facebook and Snapchat seem destined to clash as Zuckerberg has made livestreaming a “top priority” at Facebook, and Snapchat has doubled down on Live Stories, most recently launching a web player. But Twitter has one of the most popular live video apps on the planet with Periscope, while Meerkat and YouTube quietly grow.

This war has been brewing for some time. In the early days (aka 2009), it was Justin.tv vs. Livestream vs. Ustream (where I was an advisor). But now with Ustream and Justin.tv (now Twitch) both acquired, the battleground has shifted.

I asked the Tech Caucus — a collection of tech industry leaders from venture capital, startups, and tech’s biggest companies — who they believe will “win” the livestreaming wars. And for once, they were completely split:

Facebook and Snapchat split the majority of votes (38% each), with Google and Twitter picking up most of the rest. Meerkat and YouNow were shut out.

Team Facebook cited its scale as an advantage. “Facebook has the biggest audience, and that audience already loves videos,” says one member. “Good combination.” Another member agrees: “Facebook has the massive reach and people are seeking fresh content when they use their platform.” A different member also cites Facebook’s strength with publishers as an advantage.

Team Snapchat, on the other hand, cites the “authentic” nature of the product and its hardcore popularity with younger users. “People are already using Snapchat for video and are comfortable with super authentic, real video on that platform,” believes one member, who also notes that expectations for the video quality are low, and thus more authentic videos get posted.

From another member of the Caucus: “Snapchat owns the screen time with younger people, and I think it’s only going to grow. Snapchat is already the leader in realtime photo and video content. Though I think Periscope will give it a run for its money.”

Some members don’t really know who’s going to win. “The winner is whoever starts to get lasting partnerships — not one-off promotions for a big football game or the Oscars — with premium content providers that routinely deal in live events,” says one member. This could bode well for YouTube, which has been building lasting partnerships in this area. Then again, Facebook and Snapchat have significant partnerships as well.

Finally, several members were skeptical of livestreaming in general. One even listed “The Truman Show” as a protest answer to this question. Snapchat’s unique approach to live video — live without being live — was cited as a strong approach, though.

Jason L. Baptiste and I discussed the subject of livestreaming with Caucus member Caroline McCarthy in our weekly podcast, and we ended up talking about Snapchat the most. I think there’s a reason for that.

2) How Would the Tech Industry Handle a President Trump?

It’s time to stop our collective denial. After his dominant performance on Super Tuesday, Donald J. Trump is not only the Republican Party’s likely nominee, but he could very well be moving into the White House come next January.

Feeling woozy? Need to sit down? Still in denial? You’re not alone — the members of the Caucus feel the same way.

Now it’s time to really address this issue head-on. The question I asked the Tech Caucus: how would the tech industry fare under a Trump administration? How would his (theoretical) policies help or hurt startups and tech giants? The Caucus’ response was pretty much unanimous:

“Trump becoming president would be a nightmare for every industry, tech included,” one member states unequivocally. “He doesn’t understand how to work with others, and demanding tech companies to do his bidding would not go over well. He clearly doesn’t understand security, either.”

The criticism didn’t end there. “His protectionist attitude toward the economy would have some very negative impacts on the tech industry that I don’t really think we’ve foreseen yet,” fears one member. “So many tech companies are global in nature, whether they’re employing developers in Hungary or opening a Tel Aviv office after acquiring an Israeli startup. The fact that Donald Trump doesn’t seem to have a good grip (to stay the least) on startups and tech companies makes me think he would jump to conclusions and decide that this is un-American.”

“Interests rates will rise and tech will probably look more like it does in 2007 than today,” predicts another member.

One more quote for y’all:

“The tech industry should be very scared of a Trump presidency. If for nothing else, Trump’s stance on immigration will drain America’s ability to pull in top talent from across the globe. The tech industry has been a place where many incredibly driven and smart immigrants can make a huge difference to our economy. Trump’s restricted immigration policies will greatly slow that progress.”

Most of the other responses ranged from shock to utter disbelief that President Trump could be a thing. (Count me in this group.) Several members mentioned moving out of the country. My favorite response was just one word: “Jesus.”

Not everyone was completely doom and gloom, though. “Security and government data programs would be strengthened, along with cyber warfare. Personal security may be under threat as he’s likely to side with hard line privacy values,” predicts one member. A different member believes tech would be unchanged except for more issues with H1B visas. A third says, “interests rates will rise and tech probably looks more like it does in 2007 than today.”

The Caucus has already voted that it would prefer Hillary Clinton or Mike Bloomberg. After last night’s results, they may be the industry’s only hopes.

Sponsor: LaunchPad Lab

I’m so excited by this! LaunchPad Lab, a Chicago-based design and development studio for web and mobile apps, is our VERY FIRST sponsor. Instead of just making websites, LaunchPad Lab helps clients solve complex problems, such as creating HIPAA-compliant databases and developing donation platforms. They’ve worked with Content Web, MD Anderson, Francis Lofts & Bunks, and others.

I’m excited by LaunchPad Lab because they are a Chicago company (my home city), they take a problem-solving approach to development, and they are entrepreneurs in their own right. They even have an innovation incubator for their craziest ideas.

So please go to the LaunchPad Lab website, support our first sponsor, and keep them in mind when you need to solve a complex development or design challenge. I want to thank Tom Cullen for supporting The Tech Caucus. I hope you’ll support us by supporting LaunchPad Lab.

3) The Tech Industry’s Favorite VCs:

Last week, I asked the Caucus for its favorite journalists, and boy did the Caucus deliver. We got a great list of the industry’s top journos — a list I will republish soon in my column on Inc.

So I thought I’d try it again. This week, I asked the Tech Caucus for its favorite venture capitalists. The result is a list of 31 top VCs that have earned the respect of the tech industry’s leaders.

There are some interesting trends in this VC data set. Scroll to the bottom of the list for my analysis. In the meantime, here is the list! Any VC with a * by his or her name received multiple votes from the Caucus:

1. Antonio Rodriguez (Matrix Partners) — “Very friendly and great guy, who is a former entrepreneur.”
2. Michelle Tandler (Trinity Ventures) — “She’s so awesome and intelligent and is the future of VC.”
3. Ann Miura-Ko (Floodgate)
4. Sarah Tavel (Greylock Partners)
5. Zack Ware (VTF Capital)
6. Jeremy Conrad (Lemnos Labs)
7. Bill Gurley (Benchmark) — “[He] works his ass off for his companies.”
8. *Fred Wilson (Union Square) — One member credits the entire firm, but Fred received multiple votes. “They truly understand the Internet and where the opportunities do and don’t lie. They are thoughtful, wickedly smart, and connected.”
9. Dmitry Grishin (Grishin Robotics)
10. Steve Jurvetson (DFJ)
11. Scott Sandell (NEA) — “He is a terrific human being.”
12. Jeremy Liew (Lightspeed)
13. Manu Kumar (K9 Ventures)
14. Shana Fisher (High Line Venture Partners) — “She stays under the radar, but has bet on more winners than anyone I can think of.”
15. *Brad Feld (Foundry Group) — “He shares how he thinks and he lives outside the SV bubble and has a different perspective for that reason.”
16. Reid Hoffman (Greylock Partners)
17. Peter Fenton (Benchmark)
18. Eric Chin (Crosslink)
19. *Alfred Lin (Sequoia Capital)
20. Alex Iskold (Techstars) — “Works harder than anyone I know for entrepreneurs.”
21. John Lilly (Greylock Partners)
22. Ken Lerer and Eric Hippeau (Lerer Hippeau Ventures) — “I’ve seen them really go above and beyond for their investment companies. Not just the normal every three months board meeting, but very regular check-ins, advice, and being available when tough moments come up.”
23. Heather Hartnett (Human Ventures)
24. Mark Suster (Upfront Ventures)
25. Sunny Dhillon (Signia Venture Partners)
26. Roy Bahat (Bloomberg Beta)
27. Jeremy Levine (Bessemer Venture Partners)
28. Josh Elman (Greylock Partners)
29. Aileen Lee (Cowboy Ventures)
30. David Hornik (August Capital)

Quick notes: 6 of the 31 VCs on this list are women — about 20% of the people on this list, and a far higher ratio than the actual ratio of VCs in tech. The firm with the most partners was Greylock, which boasted four partners from at least four separate nominations.

I must note that a few members protested this question. One member doesn’t like the celebrification of VCs. Another cites the egos of most VCs. And a third simply wants “the ones who share my vision and haven’t invested in my competitor.”

4) Which Celebrities Should Be Active Tech Investors?

Sunday was entertainment’s biggest event, The Oscars. I’m thrilled that Leonardo DiCaprio (finally) won an Oscar, and I’m glad Mad Max received proper recognition for its sensational technical achievements.

So, in honor of the Academy Awards, I asked the Caucus to pick which celebrities they’d like to see as active tech investors. I encouraged them to avoid existing celeb investors like Ashton Kutcher and Nas (though one member gushed about wanting to work with him) and focus on ones that aren’t well-known as angels.

Here’s their wish list:

• Matt Damon. “Seems like he would get sh*t done.”
• Jennifer Lawrence. “She’s at the top of the game and still incredibly down-to-earth and has great perspective.”
• Brad Pitt.
• Angelina Jolie.
• Steven Spielberg. “He has invented so much great tech for movies — he should start helping build great products.” (I know for fact he quietly advises a few tech/media companies.)
• Taylor Swift.
• Beyoncé.
• Oprah Winrey. “She has the business acumen in addition to the celebrity profile, and she — more than any other public figure — seems like she would be phenomenal at choosing a diverse portfolio of founders.
• Kate Winslet. “LADIES!!!” exclaims one Caucus member.
• Gwyneth Paltrow.
• Olivia Munn. “She’s geek-friendly I hear.”
• Olivia Wilde.
• Julia Roberts.
• Natalie Portman. Fun fact: she was actually a tech entrepreneur. In 2009, she co-founded MakingOf, a now-defunct social network for film. I wrote about its launch in Mashable.
• Amy Schumer.
• Amy Poehler.
• Tina Fey.

Interesting Links of the Week:

• Women are hacking venture capital. Fixing the gender ratio in VC is vital to the success of tech.
• Mark Pincus has resigned (again) from Zynga. Can anything be done to right the ship?
• This is what winning looks like.
• A must-read on how Google figured out what makes for a perfect team.
• A great piece on the Silicon Valley hustle in NYT.
• I’m curious about Cheddar, the CNBC for Millenials. Anyone want to intro me to the founder?
• Is tech helping us get more done? Eh…
• Caucus member Julie Fredrickson writes about the parallels between the computer revolution and the makeup revolution.
• Why aren’t there more conservatives in tech?
• NYT writes about the risk and reward of startups.

Commentary From the Peanut Gallery:

Last week, the Caucus named its favorite tech journalists. I tagged them all on Twitter, and it launched a few fun conversations.

I’m going to let this Twitter thread do the talking:

Have a question you want me to ask the Tech Caucus? Have a suggestion for a new member of the Tech Caucus or an Interesting Link of the Week? Reply to this email or email me directly.

The Tech Caucus: Mark Achler, Jason L. Baptiste, Megan Berry, Niko Bonatsos, Sarah Buhr, Jason Calacanis, Vanessa Camones, Tracy Chou, Julie Crabill, Paige Craig, Don Dodge, Adam Draper, Josh Elman, Julie Fredrickson, Erin Griffith, Troy Henikoff, Daire Hickey, Ryan Hoover, David Hornik, Charles Hudson, Leila Janah, Olivia June, Richard Kerby, Aileen Lee, Loic Le Meur, Doug MacMillian, Jessica Mah, Jesse Middleton, Miyuki Matsumoto, Danielle Morrill, Nathaniel McNamara, Nathalie Nuta, Jeremiah Owyang, Chris Saad, Juan Scarlett, Matt Schlicht, Robert Scoble, Marcy Simon, Jon Swartz, Jana Trantow, Jennifer Van Grove, Kurt Wagner, Robin Wauters, Mike Weiksner, Brian Wong, Michelle Zatlyn.