Apple in 2015: The Revolution Begins

How Apple will show the world its next revolution on March 9th

Published in

The Tech Medium

9 min readMar 2, 2015

Seriously though, get ready for the biggest tech shitfit in a really long time, maybe ever.
Let’s discuss prices. Here’s how I think it will go down:
Apple Watch Sport (glass/aluminum): $349
Apple Watch (sapphire/stainless steel): $499
Apple Watch Edition (sapphire/gold): >$4999
Now, these are just starting prices, I imagine the bands will be priced separately at wildly different price tiers based on material.

The statement above, from the first article in the Apple in 2015 series, is apparently the most controversial thing I have ever said.

There has never been any one statement that got me as much criticism on Twitter as that one, specifically my prediction that the Edition would cost greater than $5000, and while many whined at me on the internet that I am insane, I now think I might have low balled it.

On March 9th, Apple will take the stage at the Yerba Buena Center of the Arts to show us its next revolution.

While we got a first look back in September, it is now time for Apple to show us what the Apple Watch is, how it works, how much it will cost, how they will sell it, and why we need it.

Before every Apple event, I try and decipher what will go down and how things will work for the company. Here is how I think Apple will launch the Apple Watch:

The Apple Watch:

Apple will likely spend a large majority of time discussing what exactly the Apple Watch does.

Despite having an event in September, Apple has yet to really spend much time demonstrating the Apple Watch and its capabilities. Due to this fact, I can only speculate on what they will discuss regarding the watch’s features.

I believe it is likely Apple will spend quite some time discussing fitness related features, as it was one of the main purposes when developing the watch. Recently reports came out stating that Apple couldn’t ship many of the fitness features it had originally planned on due to lack of available technology, but I still believe there is quite a bit there that hasn’t been discussed.

Additionally, I believe Apple will focus heavily on communication. The side of the Apple Watch contains a button that when pressed opens up your most recent contacts. Apple doesn’t add random buttons. Apple must believe communication is a vital part of the experience.

Regarding battery life, 9to5mac’s incredibly well sourced Mark Gurman is reporting Apple initially wanted the Apple Watch battery to provide roughly one full day of usage, and wanted the Watch to provide roughly 2.5 to 4 hours of active application use versus 19 hours of combined active/passive use, 3 days of pure standby time, or 4 days if left in a sleeping mode as of 2014.

It is entirely possible that Apple has made or beat these goals since 2014, but rumors are indicating the Watch will feature a “clock” mode, that will only show the time and do nothing more, but conserve battery. This likely means Apple just made their goals, as if they had surpassed them, they wouldn’t add this feature.

Third Party Apps:

Apple will also spend a considerable amount of time inviting third-party developers on stage to show off Apple Watch apps.

This will be a very important part of the launch for Apple, the reason the iPhone and iPad succeeded was largely due to apps, and the majority of the device’s capabilities will be in conjunction with third-party apps.

Retail:

Apple will likely spend time discussing its plans for selling the Apple Watch in its retail stores.

I recently heard a whisper that Apple will announce its plans to get rid of the infamous Genius Bar. The Bar would be replaced with a long table showcasing the many designs of Apple Watch.

This is not to say Geniuses would go away, they would just be walking about the other Apple employees throughout the store.

Additionaly, rumors claim Apple will open up boutiques that will only sell Apple Watch. While I find this highly impractical in a nation-wide setting, I could see the company doing this in distinct, touristy locations such as New York or London.

If the rumors above are true, expect Angela Ahrendts first on stage apperance.

Pricing:

Upon predicting that the Apple Watch would cost around $5000, and this fact would cause Apple fans and the tech industry to be butt-hurt, this claim immediately became true as waves of trolls and children bombarded my twitter telling me I was an idiot. Here are some examples:

This next one was a particular favorite. After someone wrote to me saying that the watch was gold plated not real gold, I quoted John Gruber who was told by Apple that the watch was indeed real gold. Upon informing him of who John Gruber was and why his statement hold more value than either of ours he said:

I hope none of these people are reading this article, or watch Apple’s keynote on Monday, because I totally low balled it.

Apple spent quite some time emphasizing the interchangeable bands of the Apple Watch during its September event, showing a wide variety of styles: Sport, Classic Buckle, Leather Loop, Modern Buckle, Milanese Loop, and Link Bracelet.

My original presumption, along with many others, that these bands would be available for purchase and be interchangeable, is at the very least somewhat false.

It seems that Apple will sell the different watches at different price points based on what band they come with, and only some of these bands will be available for purchase separately.

Additionaly, the bands will signify different tiers in the Watch collections. Apple spent lots of time talking up the materials in some of the bands, and some certainly aren’t going to be as cheap as others.

Apple’s website actually lists every model of Apple Watch, and there are a few important things to note:

The Modern Buckle is only available for 38mm models.
The Leather Loop is only available for 42mm models.
The Space Black watch is only available with the Link Bracelet
The Link Bracelet is clearly the most expensive of the bands, and is oddly not available for the Edition.

I think it is extremely likely Apple comes on stage on Monday and shows off an Apple Watch Edition with solid gold link bracelet.

As such, here are my final pricing predictions for Apple Watch:

(Note that as the Space Black Stainless Steel will be the only model available with Link Bracelet, and likely most expensive, I am making a bet that Apple didn’t differentiate the Black Sport for no reason and will price it differently ala 2006 Black MacBook)

38mm Apple Watch Sport with Silver Aluminum Case and Sport Band: $349 (band sold separately: $49)
42mm Apple Watch Sport with Silver Aluminum Case and Sport Band: $400 (band sold separately: $49)
38mm Apple Watch Sport with Space Grey Aluminum Case and Sport Band: $400 (band sold separately: $49)
42mm Apple Watch Sport with Space Grey Aluminum Case and Sport Band: $450 (band sold separately: $49)
38mm Apple Watch with Silver Stainless Steel Case and Sport Band: $500 (band sold separately: $49)
42mm Apple Watch with Silver Stainless Steel Case and Sport Band: $600 (band sold separately: $49)
38mm Apple Watch with Silver Stainless Steel Case and Black Leather Classic Strap: $549 (band sold separately: $99)
42mm Apple Watch with Silver Stainless Steel Case and Black Leather Classic Strap: $649 (band sold separately: $99)
42mm Apple Watch with Silver Stainless Steel Case and Leather Loop: $649 (band sold separately: $99)
38mm Apple Watch with Silver Stainless Steel Case and Leather Strap: $599 (band sold separately: $149)
38mm Apple Watch with Silver Stainless Steel Case and Milanese Loop: $749 (band not sold separately)
42mm Apple Watch with Silver Stainless Steel Case and Milanese Loop: $849 (band not sold separately)
38mm Apple Watch with Silver or Space Black Stainless Steel Case and Link Bracelet: $899 (band not sold separately)
42mm Apple Watch with Silver or Space Black Stainless Steel Case and Link Bracelet: $999 (band not sold separately)
38mm Apple Watch Edition with Yellow or Rose 18k Solid Gold Case and White or Black Band with Gold Pin: $4999 (band not sold separately)
42mm Apple Watch Edition with Yellow or Rose 18k Solid Gold Case and White or Black Band with Gold Pin: $5999 (band not sold separately)
38mm Apple Watch Edition with Yellow 18k Solid Gold Case and Classic Leather Strap: $5999 (band not sold separately)
42mm Apple Watch Edition with Yellow 18k Solid Gold Case and Blue Classic Leather Strap: $6999 (band not sold separately)
38mm Apple Watch Edition with Yellow or Rose 18k Solid Gold Case and Rose or Red Classic Leather Band with Gold Pin: $6999 (band not sold separately)
38mm Apple Watch Edition with Yellow or Rose 18k Solid Gold Case and Solid Gold Link Bracelet: $16,999 (band not sold separately)
42mm Apple Watch Edition with Yellow or Rose 18k Solid Gold Case and Solid Gold Link Bracelet: $19,999 (band not sold separately)

I think it is important for people to realize that this is not a tech product to Apple, its a fashion product and it is priced like one. The Apple Watch Edition is a luxury item that Apple thinks people will buy as such, not the average consumer. It doesn’t matter how much gold is in it, what matters is that they are staging it as a gold luxury watch, and are pricing it as such.

Upgradeability:

I and many others have speculated as to how Apple could expect people to pay so much for a watch thats technology will only last a few years. One of the most commonly discusses solutions is that the Apple Watch will be upgradable.

I’m very torn on the whole notion, as it’s very unlike Apple to do such a thing, but then again, the whole Apple Watch thing is unlike Apple. On the one side, why/how would they do it? On the other side, why does this picture exist?

Outcomes:

Is the Apple Watch the revolution Apple wants it to be? Only time will tell, but the way I see it, there is only three possible outcomes for the watch:

The Apple Watch is an iPod like product that blows up over a course of a few years and gains majority marketshare of around 70–80%
The Apple Watch is an iPhone like product that will have around half marketshare alongside other competitors
Smartwatches don’t pick up at all and we all just forget it happens.

Note that I don’t think there is any scenario where other Smartwatches take over the world and Apple Watch fails. I think we just have to see if people really want to wear a watch as much as they wanted to carry their music.

As I stated in Apple in 2015, my original presumption was that we would also see Apple’s long awaited 12-inch MacBook with Retina display at this event, but there have been little rumors or leaks to suggest such a thing will occur. Unless we see some Gurman-esque exclusives before Monday, only expect to see the Apple Watch at this event.

Update (3/3/15): It now seems somewhat probable that Apple will update its MacBook Airs at the event, and quite possible the 12-inch MacBook with Retina display. For my thoughts on the mysterious laptop, check out Apple in 2015.

Time will tell how accurate my predictions are, hopefully you’ve enjoyed. If you have, feel free to drop a comment to me @bzgoldman on twitter with your thoughts.

I’ll see you again in June for WWDC, it looks like we are in for a snowy summer.