A look at the next month of Fantasy Football (Premier League)
Over here in the States, fantasy football has one meaning and one meaning only. However, world wide, fantasy football can mean something entirely different. We might call it fantasy soccer in the U.S. — or maybe fantasy Premier League as a happy medium — regardless, following the English Premier League is becoming more and more popular in the U.S. and if there’s one thing U.S. sports fans love, it’s feeling like they get to be in charge via the magical world of fantasy sports.
Fantasy Premier League works a lot like the “America” fantasy football in which you almost certainly participate. You select players from clubs across England and they accumulate statistics that give you points. You compete against friends and family to show off supreme sports knowledge.
The most common site for hosting fantasy Premier League is the actual Premier League website (though playtogga.com is excellent as well). Fantasy Premier League is set up similar to the old-school fantasy baseball leagues you would have found on ESPN about a decade ago. Each fantasy player has a 100 pound (not dollar, of course) budget to select 15 players from across England’s top soccer league. You get two goalies, five defenders, five midfielders, and three attackers. From there, it’s a matter of selecting players who are going to be on the pitch and productive in their time on the pitch. That’s where this article comes in.
We’re over the halfway mark of the campaign so far, so it’s probably too late to jump into a league, but for those in a league, this is among the most crucial stretch of the season. With that in mind, let’s take a look at some of the best targets at each position for Fantasy Premier League over the next month and a half.
Goalkeepers
If you want to spend money here: Thibaut Courtois, Chelsea
The Chelsea keeper is among the best in the league, and the defense in front of him has impressed ever since Antonio Conte’s switch to a back three. Since their 3–0 defeat to Arsenal in late September, Chelsea have allowed just 8 goals in 18 matches, with the only limit for Courtois’ point total being the fact that he just doesn’t face that many shots to save, as N’golo Kante and Nemanja Matic are busy breaking up the play before opposing clubs can get deep into Chelsea’s half. Over the next five matches, Chelsea face none of the Big Six, instead facing a cadre of mid-table sides. I’d be amazed if Courtois and Chelsea allow more than two goals combined over the next five matches. The big Belgian is about as sure a bet as you’ll find. He’s also the most expensive option out there, and goalies tend to score less than other positions.
If you want to save money here: Vito Mannone, Sunderland
It’s always a bold strategy to go with a goalie from the club currently sitting at the bottom of the league table, but it can be one that pays off. For one, you know Mannone is going to face plenty of shots, meaning he should make more saves than the Courtois’ of the world. For instance, when Sunderland faced Liverpool, Mannone gave up two goals, but still ended the match with a solid seven fantasy points thanks to Liverpool putting 13 shots on goal. Mannone is also coming off a pair of consecutive shutouts, one of which came against Tottenham’s fierce attack. Sunderland only faces one Big Six club over the next five matches, and if you’re saving money by going with Mannone, you can afford another decent goalie to slot in when Sunderland face Manchester City on Matchday 27. Mannone only took over the starting role six weeks ago, and he has topped seven fantasy points in three of his six starts. He has also never been in the negative for points. He’s a bit more of a risk than some of the bigger names at the position, but he’s also a ton cheaper.
Avoid: Tom Heaton, Burnley
Heaton is currently the top-rated Premier League goalie in fantasy. Heaton plays for mid-table Burnley, and faces a great number of shots per match and saves a good chunk of them, thus driving up his fantasy value. However, over the next five matches, Burnley face Chelsea at home before going on the road for their next four matches. Burnley are an entirely different club when they are at home, playing in the friendly confines of Turf Moor (9–3–1 with a +10 goal differential) compared to on the road (0–10–1 with a -19 goal differential). Burnley give up less than a goal per match at home, but they surrender more than two goals per match on the road. Paired with the fact that Heaton is currently the fifth-most expensive goalie on the market, and it’s fair to steer clear of Heaton for the next five Matchdays.
Defenders
If you want to spend money here: Marcos Alonso, Chelsea
The thinking here is much the same as with Courtois. Chelsea has an incredibly easy stretch upcoming, one in which it’s hard to imagine them allowing goals at all. Alonso is about as strong a lock to play 90 minutes as you will find in the Premier League (90 minutes in 17 of his last 18 matches), and even has some goal-scoring abilities (four goals this campaign). Spending money on defenders always seems a bit wasteful, but when your defender is a near-lock to put up six or seven points, that can be an incredibly useful spine for the rest of your team.
If you want to save money here: Ramiro Funes Mori, Everton
Funes Mori is still relatively inexpensive, thanks to his inability to stay in the lineup for most of the season under Ronald Koeman. Funes Mori has won over his coach of late, however, and has played the full 90 minutes in each of Everton’s last five matches, to great success. Everton have three clean sheets, a 6–3 victory and a 1–1 draw with Stoke City over that time, and while the team continues to have success it’s hard to see Koeman making a change. Everton face two of the most flaccid attacks in the Premier League over the next two weeks in Middlesbrough (last in the league in goals scored) and Sunderland (tied for third fewest in goals scored) before a tough match up with Tottenham. But if you bench Funes Mori for one week, it’s back to good matchups with West Brom Albion and Hull City (second fewest goals scored) to wrap up this stretch.
Avoid: N/A
Honestly, there aren’t too many traps at the defender position right now. The flashier names (David Luiz, Kyle Walker, etc.) are in good form, and the obvious pitfalls to avoid (Nicolas Otamendi, Ryan Bertrand) seem too obvious to spend time pointing out in length here.
Midfielders
If you want to spend money here: Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Manchester United
If Chelsea have the easiest upcoming five matches, Manchester United aren’t far behind. With four matches set for the next five Matchdays, United face the 10th, 14th, 13th, and 15th clubs in the table right now. In Bournemouth and Watford, they face two of the leakier defensive sides, and seemed poised to put up some big offensive numbers. Mkhitaryan can be a bit scary to slot in your lineup week-in and week-out since Jose Mourinho has been a bit inconsistent with his minutes at times this campaign, but since returning to the lineup, Mkh has at least appeared in every match, and he has topped 60 minutes in each of the past six matches. Since returning to the lineup, Mkh has a goal and two assists, as well as many, many near-misses. It wouldn’t surprise me if some of those chances starting finding the back of the net and Mkh really caught fire down the stretch run of this campaign.
If you want to save money here: Robert Snodgrass, West Ham United
I’ve been all about Snodgrass (Roberto, if you will) this year, and it has paid off in spades. The free kick specialist has seven goals and four assists this campaign, and he did most of that for a truly dreadful Hull City side. With his recent transfer to West Ham, Snodgrass will be surrounded by a lot more talent, while still being looked to as a creative force. With Dimitri Payet headed back to France, Snodgrass will still be able to shine on his free kicks opportunities, while a lot more should come of his points from open play. Despite all his production, Snodgrass still comes at a relatively cheap price, as well.
Avoid: Sadio Mane, Liverpool
Mane is one of the most fun players to watch in the Premier League, and is an essential cog in one of the brightest attacks in Europe. That being said, Liverpool has a brutally-tough stretch upcoming, and the club (as well as player) have looked a bit off as of late. Liverpool will be facing Spurs, Arsenal, and Manchester City, to go along with last year’s champions, Leicester, over the next five games (Burnley slipped in there as well). Liverpool are also fresh off a 2–0 loss to Hull City that was among the most surprising results of the campaign. Mane, himself, is only just back from the African Cup of Nations, and has to be getting pretty tired by this point of the campaign. Mane has been worth the price for most of the campaign so far, but I’d avoid him until the next break for Liverpool at the end of March.
Forwards
If you want to spend money here: Harry Kane, Tottenham
Ah, forwards. We all inevitably save up our money to spend big here at the flashiest (and highest-scoring) of the positions. If you are indeed the type who has saved on other places on the roster, spend big on Sir Harry of Kane at this spot. The upcoming stretch for Spurs is middle of the road in terms of difficulty but looks mighty juicy in terms of scoring goals. Spurs face the definitely-leaky Liverpool defense before a Stoke side against whom they scored four the last time the two sides faced off. Then it’s an Everton side that just gave up three goals in a win. After that, it’s Crystal Palace who just gave up four goals to Sunderland (SUNDERLAND!) and finally a solid Southampton side. As for Kane, he has seven goals in his last seven matches, and is surging up the Premier League goals scored leaderboard. He has 14 goals for the campaign, and we all know how he can get goals in bunches. The price is high for Kane, but this is what you’ve been saving for, right?
If you want to save money here: Peter Crouch, Stoke City
Again, I don’t necessarily endorse skimping on money at the forward position, but if you’re going to try that strategy, Mr. Crouch is the guy to chase. Crouch has found his way back to the starting lineup for Mark Hughes and Stoke and has four goals in his last six matches. Crouch is an all timer, having just tallied his 100th Premier League goal, so he’s knows what he’s doing out there (plus, he celebrated number 100 by bringing back his robot cele, the greatest celebration of all time, hands down). Stoke have a bit of a tricky schedule upcoming, but Crouch has a thing for wonder goals against top-level teams.
Avoid: Gabriel Fernando de Jesus, Manchester City
This may sound highly counter-intuitive. The 19-year-old Brazilian is the latest wunderkind to hit the Premier League, having come over as a recent transfer from Palmeiras and hit the ground running. After an electric appearance as a substitute late in City’s draw with Tottenham, Jesus got the start against West Ham and scored a goal and added an assist. What did he do in his follow up? Only a pair of goals to give City a 2–1 victory over Swansea City. So why am I saying to avoid him? The price for the 19-year-old is already up to 9.2 pounds, eighth among forwards. Sure, he has looked electric and plays as part of one of the most potent attacks in the league, but it’s hard to imagine the youngster keeping up at this pace. Consider this the bucket of cold water to slow down the hype train a bit surrounding Jesus, Man City’s Lord and Savior.
