Can Lebron do it? Yes. Will he? Time Will Tell
Dirk Nowitzki ranks 6th on the NBA all time scoring list. Last night, he joined the 30,000 point club (he currently has 30,005 points) and will continue to chase Wilt Chamberlain for 5th (31,419 points). Obviously it is impractical for Dirk to dethrone Kareem Abdul Jabbar as the leader (38,387), because the 38 year old realistically has one more year left in his German tank. Nonetheless, Dirk’s accomplishments have been beyond impressive and will most certainly lead him to Springfield, Massachusetts. Congrats Dirk!
There is one active player in the league who is young enough, and on pace, to reach Kareem. I could be talking about Kevin Durant…unfortunately, his injuries are piling up and diminishing his odds. LeBron James is the only man on this planet who currently has a realistic chance to reach the sacred number one spot. LeBron is 32 years old and is first reaching new levels of playing.
LeBron is stronger than ever. Fiercer than ever. LeBron James will not be stopped.
Currently, LeBron ranks 8th all time, sitting at 28,316 points and those numbers will only rise on a nightly basis. You can count on that, but will it continue to rise at this rate. James has averaged over 25 points per game his entire career (except for his rookie season, where he averaged 20 ppg). It is looking like as he gets older, he gets better. So far, he is averaging 26 PPG this season. This is incredible for someone who is 32, leads the league in minutes played, and has gone to 6 straight NBA finals. You know how many extra games and minutes that is? A lot. Think about this: since we know he has reached the finals the past 6 years, he has definitely played 4 rounds. Now let’s say he swept each round (4–0), thats a minimum of 16 extra games in one year of playoffs. Now take 16 games and multiply that by 6 (for 6 years) and we get a total of 96 games. That’s more than a season and that’s just a minimum. He has clearly played a lot more since he has not swept each round (Example: last year’s finals went to Game 7). The fact that he has played more than an extra season in just playoff games through this six year span is ridiculous to say the least. The fact that he is still playing at this level is beyond insane. LeBron is running on an engine if you want to know the truth.
LeBron is on track to end this season with just about 2,000 points. That will up his total to 28,816 points. That leaves him 9,571 points shy of Kareem.
So what will LeBron need to do to reach number 1 in scoring?
- Stay healthy
I really don’t have any concerns here. Unlike Kevin Durant, LeBron has never had any severe injuries. He is constantly healthy with the exception of a few bruises and leg cramps. I totally expect him to stay healthy and play for many more years. He will not go out like Kobe Bryant.
2. Average 25 PPG for the next 5 seasons
This will be tough. It is really hard to see someone have continued success by relying on his power to drive to the basket all the time when he is aging into his 30's. What I have been noticing this past month from James is his consistency of his 3 point shot. He has been on point from there recently. This could be just a hot streak or a change he implemented that has been working. If the 3 falls, then LeBron improves his chances of chasing down Kareem. Let’s say the 3 falling is just a coincidental streak and he will go back to his normal struggles from there. If that is the case, he will need to score 25 PPG for the next 5 seasons the hard way to pass Kareem.
You can make the argument that there is no reason why LeBron can’t do it. You can also make the argument that father time will take over and his strength will subside. I believe history is meant to be broken and if anyone is going to break this record, it will be King James. I’m bullish on LeBron and I’ve come to realize that you can’t doubt greatness. Just look at last year’s NBA Finals. I believe his scoring per game will decrease within the future years, but his strength and durability will hold up long enough so that he will be able to play late into his 30’s, possibly up to 40. I expect 3–4 more years of LeBron type scoring (23–25PPG) and then a gradual decrease into the high teens and low 20's, however, it will be enough where he passes Kareem due to the longevity of his career.
I hope I’m right. I want to see LeBron achieve this. He is getting closer and time will tell.
Lebron James: My Prediction
Played until 39 years of age
Total Points: 38,566
#JustAKidFromAkron
