Potential Wins
Looking past wins and losses to find the MLB’s best pitchers
Last season, Rick Porcello, J.A. Happ and Max Scherzer led the MLB in Wins, with each claiming 20 or more Ws. Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta followed the trio with 19 and 18 Wins, respectively. Their achievements were irrefutably impressive. However, a quick analyzation of these pitchers reveals one trait common in all their teams:
Explosive batting.
The Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays, Washington Nationals, and Chicago Cubs all produced exceptional offensive seasons. Each of those teams averaged at least 4.69 Runs Per Game (that’s ninth best, or higher, amid the 30 MLB teams). That number towers over the 4.4 RPG league average. Not to discredit any of the aforementioned pitchers, it is worth noting that Porcello, Happ and Arrieta ranked 1,2 and 3 in Run Support Average (Per Start). Any novice baseball fan can tell you it is significantly easier to win ball games when you’re backed by a robust offense than it is to win when your team just can’t manage to get a hit.
Last week in Pitchers and Catchers (Part 2), we discussed the underrated and unrecognized pitchers of 2016. This article’s intention is to draw more attention to that batch and discuss the pitchers who aren’t afforded the luxury of explosive batting. You know, those sensational pitchers who are stuck with a pathetic offense that is rarely able to squeak out a run, let alone two. We’re here to uncover those helpless souls whose Win-Loss records were eroded because of the offensive ineptitude of their teammates.
What will do is highlight the pitchers who pitched well throughout the season but, thanks to their offenses, or lack thereof, suffered a Loss or No Decision. Had they received the average run support (4 runs or more), they would have tallied most likely up a Win. Let’s call this hypothetical stat a Potential Win (PW). This can give us a better understanding of a pitcher’s performance.
The requirements for a PW are as follows:
- Pitcher received a Loss or No Decision
- Pitcher must have thrown 6 innings or more and allowed 3 runs or less.
- Pitcher’s team must have scored 3 runs (below league average) or less.
- Pitcher must have had a Run Support Average of 4.55 or lower.
Got it?
Great, let’s go.
Brandon Finnegan, Cincinnati Reds
- Finnegan’s 2016 stats: 10–11, 3.98 ERA
- Finnegan’s 2016 Run Support Average (RSA): 4.52
- Cincinnati Reds’ 2016 Runs Per Game (RPG): 13th worse, 4.42 RPG
- Finnegan’s Potential Wins (PW): 7
Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves
- Teheran’s 2016 Stats: 7–10, 3.21 ERA
- Teheran’s 2016 RSA: 3.37
- Atlanta Braves’ RPG: 3rd worse, 4.03 RPG
- Teheran’s PW: 7
Jared Eickhoff, Philadelphia Phillies
- Eickhoff’s 2016 stats: 11–14, 3.65 ERA
- Eickhoff’s 2016 RSA: 3.58
- Philadelphia Phillies’ RPG: Worst in MLB, 3.77 RPG
- Eickhoff’s PW: 7
Jake Ordizzio, Tampa Bay Rays
- Ordizzio’s 2016 stats: 10–6, 3.69 ERA
- Ordizzio’s 2016 RSA: 4.27
- Tampa Bay Rays’ RPG: 7th worse, 4.15 RPG
- Ordizzio’s PW: 7
Chris Archer, Tampa Bay Rays
- Archer’s 2016 Stats: 9–19, 4.02 ERA
- Archer’s 2016 RSA: 3.48
- Tampa Bay Rays’ RPG: 7th worse, 4.15 RPG
- Archer’s PW: 8
Ervin Santana, Minnesota Twins
- Santana’s 2016 Stats: 7–11, 3.38 ERA
- Santana’s 2016 RSA: 3.37
- Minnesota Twins’ RPG: 15th worse, 4.46 RPG
- Santana’s PW: 10
James Shields, San Diego Padres/Chicago White Sox
- Shields’ 2016 stats: 6–19, 5.85 ERA
- Shields’ Runs Support Average: 3.33
- San Diego Padres/Chicago White Sox RPG: 10th, and 11th worse, both with 4.23 RPG
- Shields’ PW: 10
Will this change the way we look at pitchers? Perhaps. Will it influence the Cy Young voting? Probably not. But at least we’ll have a better understanding of the difficulties of being labeled an “elite” pitcher, and that W-L records fail to tell the whole story of a pitcher’s ability.
Hope you enjoyed.
