The 40: So You’re Fast, Now What?

Examining the determinative ability of the combine’s most famous challenge

On March 4th, 2017, John Ross from the University of Washington Huskies ran the fastest 40 yard dash in the history of the NFL Combine (in Nike cleats). He ran 40 yards in a blistering 4.22 seconds, breaking Chris Johnson’s previous record of 4.24. This is an eye-popping time to say the least! But awesome this feat got me thinking: is a great 40 yard dash an accurate indicator of future NFL success?

According to NFL.COM, the top ten 40 yard dash times are: John Ross, Chris Johnson, Dri Archer, Jerome Mathis, Marquise Goodwin, Stanford Routt, Tyrone Calico, Jacoby Ford, Fabian Washington, and Darrius Heyward-Bey. The time difference among these players ranges from Ross’s 4.22 to Heyward-Bey’s 4.3. Bottom line: no matter how you look at this top 10, these guys are all super fast.

So, does being super fast mean you will have success in NFL? Not really. Out of that list of the ten fastest players, there has been only 4 Pro Bowl appearances and two All-Pro seasons between them; and those were by Chris Johnson and Jerome Mathis. Chris Johnson has been to three Pro Bowls and was a first team All-Pro RB once. Jerome Mathis went to one Pro Bowl and was also selected as an All-Pro one time. In conclusion, only two of the top ten fastest players to ever play in the NFL achieved Pro Bowl success.

For one week each year, the NFL puts draft-hopefuls through quantifiable drills to get a better understanding of their skills and where they rank among their peers at the same positions. These can all be helpful in projecting a player’s success but they are clearly not determinative. For instance, Le’Veon Bell’s 40 yard time was 4.6 seconds, and his draft profile stated that his size and “sub-par vision” would limit his speed and negatively impact his success at the next level. Fast forward 4 years, Bell has turned two of his biggest defects into his greatest assets and is now considered by many to be the best running back in the league. Obviously, straight-line speed is a great asset to have, but clearly it is only one of many skills that a player must possess in order to find success at the highest level.

*It should be noted that Bo Jackson ran a 4.12 40 yard dash but that was clocked using a hand stopwatch, not an electronic timer.