What if the Dallas Cowboys Do Trade Up For Myles Garrett?
Indulge me for just a minute
On Friday we saw the surfacing of a video from December in which Myles Garrett, defensive end from Texas A&M and consensus top pick in the fast-approaching 2017 NFL Draft, somewhat jokingly pleads for the Cowboys to trade Tony Romo and draft picks in order to acquire the Cleveland Browns’ first overall selection (and presumably select him with it). Whether or not it really was a joke, it’s suddenly a very serious possibility pervading the minds of Cowboys fans everywhere. While mostly everyone else has been fixated upon Houston, Kansas City and Chicago as Romo’s most likely destinations, not much attention has been paid to Cleveland and how a deal sending Romo there would have to look. So what exactly would it take to make this trade work?
The 36 year old quarterback is coming off three consecutive seasons with back injuries, but as we saw in Week 17 of this past season, he can still play. Romo came in and completed three of four passes with a touchdown. The trick is keeping him upright, but unfortunately for Cleveland, their offensive line in 2016 had the highest sacks allowed per game rate. Cleveland has some solid offensive linemen in left tackle Joe Thomas and left guard Joel Bitonio, but the right side of their line must be fixed. The free agency pool offers the likes of Luke Joeckel, Sebastian Vollmer, Chance Warmack, Ron Leary, John Sullivan, and more. Combine that with the fact that Cleveland is expected to have nearly $109 million in cap space (per Spotrac), the idea an offensive line overhaul isn’t inconceivable.
Of course, this brings us to another topic: money. Romo has a massive contract, with a 2017 cap hit of $24.7 million. However, if the Browns were to acquire Romo via a trade, they would only take on his base salary of $14 million for next year, as his prorated signing bonus of $10.7 million would stay on the Cowboys’ payroll. This works for both teams as it lessens the burden that Cleveland would be taking on while also clearing up $5.1 million in cap space for a Dallas team that is already $10 million over the cap. While the Browns would ultimately have to pay Romo $25.2 million in 2018 and $23.7 million in 2019, there’s no guarantee he’ll still be playing by then. Nevertheless, it’s a “discount” for 2017 that allows for Cleveland to acquire a great veteran quarterback and still have enough cap space to bolster their offensive line and add some talent on defense.
For Cleveland, it makes sense to want to acquire Romo. It also makes sense for Dallas to deal him and capitalize on his prospects, as there’s no chance of Romo seeing the field unless something unspeakable happens to Dak Prescott, so why not clear up cap space and get something valuable in return? Of course, Romo’s departure would mean Dallas would need to sign a veteran backup, but there’s plenty to choose from between Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallett, Josh McCown, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and others in the free agent market this year, any of whom would be fairly cheap. So it makes sense, both talent-wise and financially, for both teams to send Romo to Cleveland.
So what else will it take? Well, this whole trade scenario is constructed around the framework of trading Tony Romo for the first overall draft pick, with which Dallas would select Garrett. Last year, the first overall pick was also dealt, so let’s use that move as a base model. To recap for those of us who have already (understandably) forgotten, here’s what the trade, between the Tennessee Titans and Los Angeles Rams, entailed:
Los Angeles received the 2016 1st, 113th, and 177th overall picks, and Tennessee received the 2016 15th, 43rd, 45th, and 76th picks, in addition to this year’s 5th and 69th overall picks. So, in short, the Rams had to give up a 2016 1st rounder, two 2nd rounders, and a 3rd rounder and 2017 1st and 3rd rounders in exchange for the first overall pick and a fourth and sixth rounder.
This scenario is different from the Rams-Titans trade, though, in that here a real player, not a theoretical future pick, is involved. More than that, it’s a talented player in the most important position, a playmaker that the Browns are sorely lacking. Because of this, the Cowboys likely wouldn’t have to give up that many draft picks, but I’m thinking they’ll definitely have to give up their first rounder this year, at 28th overall, and their 3rd round pick, 92nd overall. Yet, on the other hand, the Browns know that what they’re giving up is a young pass-rusher that could be a dominant force in the NFL for years to come, while the player they’d be getting has a limited upside. Because of this, Cleveland can charge a bit more; I’m thinking they also take Dallas’ 2018 first round pick. However, Dallas can probably get a sixth round pick from Cleveland in addition to this year’s first overall.
So here’s the trade we’re looking at:
Dallas receives Cleveland’s 2017 1st round, 1st overall pick, and a 2017 6th round pick.
Cleveland receives Tony Romo, Dallas’ 2017 1st round pick, 28th overall, 3rd round pick, 92nd overall, and 2018 1st round pick.
The most important question that remains to be asked is: is this worth it?
From the Browns’ perspective, absolutely. It would give them the 12th and 28th overall picks, for starters. They could either package these picks to move back into the top 10, or use their 12th on someone like LSU RB Leonard Fournette to give Romo a legitimate running threat, and then spend the 28th pick on a pass rusher like UCLA’s Takkarist McKinley or Michigan’s Taco Charlton. Additionally, Cleveland would have two 2nd round picks, two 3rd round picks, a 4th round pick, two 5th round picks, and a 6th round pick. That’s 10 total draft picks in 2017.
Then, in the 2018 draft, they would have an extra 2nd round pick from Philadelphia and an extra 6th round pick from Pittsburgh, as well as having Dallas’ 1st round pick in addition to their own 1st rounder. This would give them the flexibility to potentially move up in the 2018 draft and take a quarterback like Louisville’s Lamar Jackson, Washington’s Jake Browning, or UCLA’s Josh Rosen to develop behind Romo. So yes, this trade would be great for Cleveland.
But what about Dallas?
Dallas already has a fairly complete team. Obviously, they’ve got the best offensive line in the NFL, a great QB-RB tandem in Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott, and an effective receiving corps led Dez Bryant and Cole Beasley, supplemented by other surrounding pieces. Their defense isn’t too shabby either. Stout linebackers Sean Lee and Anthony Hitchens will be joined by Jaylon Smith, who essentially took a redshirt rookie season this year while recovering from a knee injury. Their secondary features cornerbacks Orlando Scandrick and Anthony Brown, and likely will see the re-signing of either Brandon Carr or Morris Claiborne, as well as safeties Byron Jones, Barry Church, and JJ Wilcox. Even their defensive line features impactful pieces like Tyrone Crawford, Cedric Thornton, David Irving, Maliek Collins, Charles Tapper, Benson Mayowa, and DeMarcus Lawrence, most of whom are versatile enough to play multiple positions on the line.
But the most glaring weakness of this team that just went 13–3 was the general lack of a dependable, consistent pass-rusher. Collins, Irving, and Lawrence have all flashed talent in pressuring the quarterback, but none of them can be counted on as the primary pass-rusher. Here’s where Garrett enters the equation. The man is pure pass-rushing talent with a first step burst that is almost impossible to stop and athleticism not seen at the position since Khalil Mack. His only weaknesses are in his run defense and in the fact that he sometimes relies too much on his physical tools without utilizing technique or finesse, something that will be much more difficult against the bigger, stronger NFL offensive linemen. However, the Cowboys rotate their defensive line a lot anyway, with Crawford generally flipping to defensive end in running situations. Also, defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli is particularly known for his skill as a D-line guru, so it’s fairly safe to assume Garrett would learn all the moves from him.
In Garrett, the Cowboys would be getting a once-in-a-lifetime defensive stud to go along with a few other strong pieces on defense, solidifying their pass rush and fixing last season’s biggest problem. Paired with an offense that is already one of the NFL’s best, this trade up to get Garrett would significantly boost the Cowboys’ Super Bowl odds in 2017.
On the other side, it would give the Browns a treasure trove of draft picks over the next two years and a top 10 quarterback to help their offense actually score some points this season and perhaps get them into the playoff discussion.
Personally, I think Cleveland and Dallas should go for it. They both stand to gain much more than they would get from sitting tight where they are. But what are your thoughts? Which team benefits more, and should this trade happen? Sound off in the comments!
