‘Catch Yourself On’: How we can wise up and know what to look out for in Northern Ireland
“‘Religion’s never mentioned here,’ of course.
‘You know them by their eyes,’ and hold your tongue…”
“Northern reticence, the tight gag of place
And times: yes, yes. Of the “wee six” I sing
Where to be saved you only must save face
And whatever you say, you say nothing.”
Seamus Heaney, “Whatever You Say, Say Nothing” (1975)
Northern Ireland was “born in violence.” Though conflict in the region has spanned centuries and groups of actors, it is timely to discuss how Brexit might threaten the peace that was established in Northern Ireland after the Good Friday Agreement (GFA). With riots in April being the first major incident since the passage of the GFA, it is now crucial that we establish what we should be looking out for in Northern Ireland.
The Troubles
In the summer of 1969, Ireland faced a turning point as the violence in the North escalated. In the Northern Ireland equation leading to conflict, there were four basic variables: (1) Protestants were around two-thirds of a population of 1.5 million and were largely Unionists who favored the link with Britain (British, not Irish); (2) Catholics made up the remaining one-third of the population (Irish, not British); and (3) and (4) the British and Irish governments who remained somewhat uninvolved until the peak of tensions.
By August 1969, tensions rose to a boiling point. The Catholic civil rights movement in Northern Ireland had eroded into “something resembling a sectarian civil war.” In Derry, the long-dormant IRA reappeared and declared themselves the protectors of the Catholic population as violence increased between the Catholic/Nationalist protestors and the Royal Ulster Constabulary (RUC).
During the Troubles, 3,720 people were killed and close to 50,000 were wounded. Strikingly, every day of the year marks the anniversary of someone’s death as a result of the conflict. In an attempt to end the violence and create a framework for peace, several parties began negotiations on what would become the Belfast Agreement, more commonly referred to as the Good Friday Agreement. The Agreement was signed on April 10, 1998 in multi-party negotiations, but the peace process and its implementation — from the cease-fire to the newest government — took nearly thirteen years.
Today, Northern Ireland is at another kind of crossroads.
The United Kingdom’s row with the European Union over the Northern Ireland protocol is exacerbating tensions in Northern Ireland (N.I.) which have existed since the Troubles. The GFA has been essential in sustaining peace in the country. Yet today, the peace established in N.I. is now at risk. The Brexit referendum — in which a majority of Northern Ireland’s people voted to stay in the EU — put a large amount of funding for peace processes at stake. Negotiations surrounding the Northern Ireland Protocol — a condition of Brexit — have created major tensions between the UK, the EU, and allies such as the US. Growing discontent between Unionists and Loyalists over the trade deal have resulted in political disruption and violence. The result is a significant security risk for Northern Ireland.
Regarding the Northern Ireland Protocol, the UK has threatened to pull the protocol altogether if the EU does not concede to their demands, such as ditching the ECJ as the mechanism for adjudicating disputes. This particular demand has been seen as a power play by the UK to either ensure concessions by the EU or start a full-scale trade war. Given this, a discussion of the negotiations surrounding the Northern Ireland Protocol and its effects on the GFA is imperative.
So, what exactly should we be paying attention to in Northern Ireland in the coming months?
#1: Boris Johnson and the End of Prosecutions for the Troubles
The British government has pushed to end the prosecutions against those involved with the violence of the Troubles. In July, they announced plans to invoke a statute of limitations effectively ending all prosecutions up to April 1998. Johnson has said that this could help Northern Ireland “draw a line under the troubles.” The statute of limitations would apply to former members of the security forces, ex-paramilitaries, and would include an end to all relevant legacy inquests and civil actions. Though the plan also includes mechanisms offering retrieval of information on Troubles incidents and an oral history initiative, given the trauma suffered by the victims themselves and their families, it seems cruel to end the chance to seek criminal prosecution for the perpetrators. Human rights groups, executives in the N.I. government, victims groups, as well as politicians from around the world have strongly opposed this. Andrew Sloan, chief executive at the Commission for Victims and Survivors in Northern Ireland called the move a “sweeping denial of the rights of families” stating that it “presents a real risk of seriously damaging our focus on reconciliation.”
#2: The Northern Ireland Protocol and the Role of the EU
For months there has been a battle over the status of N.I., specifically the border between N.I and the Republic of Ireland. Though the border was a non-issue pre-Brexit, the protocol — which established a customs border between N.I and Britain in the hopes of avoiding a hard border — has been a significant point of contention, with both parties disagreeing on the execution of sanitary checks for traded goods. Two years ago, Britain agreed to post-Brexit trade rules, but they are now reneging, arguing the agreement should be thrown out completely. Brussels is not willing to offer concessions regarding Britain’s newest demand, which includes removing the ECJ as the adjudicator of disputes. This follows a concession by the EU to reduce checks on food and animal products traded between Britain and N.I. by 80%, to slash customs paperwork for shipments of goods, and to ensure the flow of medicines. This dispute caused a ‘full-scale confrontation’ between Britain and Brussels. Supporters of the GFA have expressed concern that Britain’s rigidity during negotiations could jeopardize the peace process and result in the resurrection of a hard border.
Conclusions & Recommendations for the Future
Given the turbulent history of Northern Ireland, both the Northern Ireland Protocol and the push to end the legacy of the Troubles pose significant security risks to the relative peace that has been achieved since the GFA. Dissident republican groups such as the New IRA and Continuity IRA are still using violence as a means to express their discontent, allegedly entering into discussions about mounting attacks in Northern Ireland. These groups tend to see the peace process participants as “sell-outs,” and insist that armed struggle is the only path to a united Ireland. More daunting is the fact that the two factions of the IRA have continued to “organize and recruit,” and possess the military capability to launch attacks. Between April 2019 and March 2020, the Northern Ireland police “recorded 21 bombings, or attempted bombings, and 40 shootings; 30 firearms were seized and 774 rounds of ammunition were found.”
The fragile peace in Northern Ireland depends upon creating an environment conducive to growth, one that moves past the intergenerational biases and conflicts that plague Northern Ireland. We must help the youth of Northern Ireland believe that peace can in fact be achieved. With the help of the EU — which has played a role in Northern Irish peace-building since the late 1980s — as well as community-based organizations, there is a potential for continued peace in Northern Ireland. This is a call upon the British government to seriously consider the consequences of their recent political moves, giving priority to the survival of the GFA. This is a call upon the “bottom-up” and grassroots peace-building groups in N.I. to promote community involvement and education on the shared history of violence. This is a call upon the international community as a whole to pay attention to what is going on in Northern Ireland.
Seamus Heaney’s “A Shared Homeplace” reads:
“As I prepare to take my leave of our shared homeplace,
I take comfort in an old Greek proverb,
‘A society grows when old men plant trees in whose shade they know they will never sit.’
We must keep planting those trees. We must create the shade.”
