The US and EU’s Growing Lukashenka Problem
While the Republic of Belarus has never been considered even partially free, the recent human rights abuses by Alexander Lukashenka’s government have plunged the country into a humanitarian crisis that must be addressed by the major players of the world. With the increasingly frequent protests against Lukashenka, the stories of journalists and political opposition facing jail time, injury, and death, and the looming fear of Russia’s bolstered union with the nation, there is a growing threat to the people of Belarus and Europe as a whole. The current strategy undertaken by both the United States and the European Union is to sanction those close to Lukashenka in the hopes of weakening his power and resolve. So far, these measures have not deterred or even decreased Lukashenka’s human rights abuses. While the US and the EU must balance strong-arming the Belarusian government with maintaining a warless Eastern Europe, more must be done to alleviate the humanitarian crisis and support the people of Belarus in their fight for human rights and rule of law. This can be achieved not only by maintaining the sanctions currently in place but bolstering them with greater institutional support, especially in the realm of elections, to stabilize Belarus. If Belarus is to be a truly free and independent nation, it must be free and independent from all forces — not just Russia, and not just Lukashenka.
Over the course of Lukashenka’s twenty-seven-year rule, the Belarusian public has overwhelmingly expressed concerns with the way Lukashenka has handled many pressing issues, most recently the COVID-19 pandemic. As the continent was ravaged by the virus, Lukashenka proposed combatting it with vodka, saunas, and hard work. In response to an allegedly rigged presidential election in 2020, Belarusians took to the streets in protest against Lukashenka and his administration. The protestors have been met with police brutality and jail, with around 3,000 protestors on the night of the election in the capital city Minsk and across the nation. Since then, more recent numbers across the board put the estimate past 30,000 detained. Reports state that the Minsk police used batons, flash grenades, and rubber bullets against peaceful protesters. Both party opposition members and the people reporting on it have been jailed or silenced. Two of three candidates running against Lukashenka were jailed with the third, Sviatlana Tikhanovskaya, fleeing the country in exile. Human rights abuses have since skyrocketed as Lukashenka further tightened the grip on opposition and civil activists.
The responses provided by the United States and European Union were spurred by Belarusian authorities ordering a Ryanair flight to make an emergency landing due to reports of explosives onboard. Once landed, government officials boarded the plane and arrested Roman Protasevich, the founder of an opposition channel on social media. The incident caused the U.S. and EU to place variants of travel restrictions on any carriers coming from the country and financial sanctions on specific organizations and individuals related to or responsible for the situation in Belarus — including Lukashenka himself. While the EU put sanctions on a total of 166 individuals and 15 entities, the U.S. has put sanctions on 23 individuals and 21 entities. Both countries have implemented travel warnings and restrictions on Belarus. The U.S. Department of State has marked Belarus as a Level 4: Do Not Travel advisory, and the Federal Aviation Administration has issued a notice to exercise caution when flying into, out of, or over the region. The EU, on the other hand, has specifically restricted the permission to land in, take off, or overfly by any Belarusian air carriers in European Union airspace.
The issue with these restrictions is, plain and simple, how little they seem to be doing. This is due to what the sanctions against Belarus have failed to target, and perhaps never will: the internal sources of revenue in the country and any aid Russia gives to it. In 1999, Belarus and Russia formed the Union State. Its main goal was to further unite both countries. It is reaching a point where the only country Belarus can turn to is Russia, as was Russia’s intent. The further Belarus alienates itself from the West, the more it falls into the Kremlin’s embrace. As the countries continue to work together and combine economic markets and military power, there may be a “consolidation” of Belarus into Russia. If the West wishes to stop human rights abuses in the country and prevent Russia’s complete takeover of Belarus, the U.S. and EU should act in coordination, sparing no tool in their toolboxes.
Some have argued the West should stay out of Belarusian affairs. Russia considers Belarus firmly within its sphere of influence. If Belarus wishes to consolidate the president’s power and establish closer ties with Russia, then it is not our place to intervene. This is a very Realist approach — every country for itself, or that our own affairs are more important than those of another (geopolitically less significant) country. Some have pointed to a “silent majority” in Belarus that actually prefers Lukashenka’s way of leading, and that the protestors are simply a vocal few that do not speak for the country as a whole. However, this line of argument could become a self-fulfilling prophecy: it is almost certain that Russia will, in one form or another, gain complete control of Belarus if there is no form of intervention. If the choice is to “let this one go,” Russia will continue to gain each and every little foothold it needs until it is too late to take back those decisions. The West cannot build transatlantic power if it allows a brutal dictatorship to prosper on its border.
The Liberal approach to what should be done by the joint U.S.-EU force to respond to the situation in Belarus would be to balance idealism with the interest in minimizing harm and, at worst, war. The proposal, therefore, is twofold: sanctions maintenance and elections support. The sanctions may increase the price on Lukashenka’s regime, but not enough to prevent human rights abuses. If Lukashenka wants to continue ruling the country, he will have to become a leader his population truly wants to put into power. In conjunction with sanctions, the West needs to support democratic elections in Belarus. The National Coordination Council, created by Lukashenka’s exiled political opponent Sviatlana Tikhanovskaya to negotiate the transfer of power in Belarus, should be provided with better financial and technical support to improve the fairness of elections going forward. It is also imperative that the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, whose goal is to work for stability, peace, and democracy all across the continent, finds creative approaches to work with one of its notorious members, Russia. Due to the OSCE’s goals and ideals, the relationship has often been fraught as inherently antithetical beliefs come into conflict. However, as one of the few remaining platforms that exist between Russia and the West, the OSCE should be more active in working with Russia to facilitate fair elections in Belarus. When defending something as fundamentally important as human rights, this approach can be slower than many would prefer. In reality, the ideal solution would have been to start taking this course of action years prior, but that doesn’t mean countries should refuse to start now. It will require certain sacrifices to maintain an open line of neutral and peaceful — or, at a minimum, non-violent — communication with countries like Russia and Belarus, but the U.S. and EU cannot lose their routes of peaceful communication and debate. If the West wants to come to a result that can last, the approach needs to be one of carefully utilized soft power. As the countries that often set the stage for international political discourse, they cannot become the same oppressive and uncompromising force they are condemning.
Securing democracy in Europe — which includes Belarus — is a difficult task, but it is one of vital importance. Russia’s interest lays in growing its authoritarian power across its sphere of influence. Propping up brutal autocrats gives Russia more power and leverage against western democracies. With the numbers of those facing injury, exile, jail, or death, the situation will stay bleak if nothing is done about it. The backsliding of Belarus is a human rights issue and if the West considers human rights and democracy to be important and worth protecting, as it claims to, more needs to be done. It requires the use of soft power with a deft hand to prevent a new geopolitical conflict that will harm more people than it serves. The United States and the European Union need to get this right for the good of the Belarusian public and all of Europe. It is time to put the collective foot down in the face of Alexander Lukashenka and his dictatorship, which can be done by continuing targeted sanctions and investing time and resources into creating a framework for free and fair elections in the Republic of Belarus.
