One More Ball

How Angelique Kerber beat Serena

Early Saturday morning Angelique Kerber upended heavy favorite Serena Williams in the finals of the Australian Open. That Serena lost is inherently shocking just because of how rarely it happens. Serena entered the match with a 42–5 record against the current top 6 and a 5–1 record against Kerber, including four straight wins. Serena had coasted through her first six matches and seemed poised to kick off another run at a calendar year Grand Slam.

Whenever someone as dominant as Serena loses, we tend to look for some external explanation, whether it be fatigue from battling racism and sexism while simultaneously pursuing a Grand Slam or just simply Drake. Grasping for such explanations not only help us reconcile the cognitive dissonance of someone as dominant as Serena losing but also makes for great think piece fodder.

Yet sometimes the simplest explanation is best. On Saturday morning, Serena lost because her opponent simply played better tennis.

Serena was not at the top of her game. Williams’ court movement was uncharacteristically off — likely a product of the momentary nervous paralysis conferred by trying to match Steffi Graf’s 22 Grand Slam titles. Serena didn’t serve well — she had nearly as many double faults (6) as aces (7) and only managed to get 53% of her first serves in play. Her strategy was at times questionable, rushing the net even when not given a short ball to approach off of.

And yet, despite having a relatively off night, Serena still played well enough to beat most women in the field. Angelique Kerber was able to spring the upset by simply making Serena hit one more ball on most points.

Simply getting the ball back in play seems painfully obvious and yet it frequently proves a winning strategy. After years of playing junior tournaments and high school tennis, I can count on two hands how many times I’ve picked up a racquet in the past several years. Yet when I have, I’ve often been able to come out on top of more practiced but less experienced opponents simply by extending the point one or two shots beyond what they have come to expect.

Obviously playing the greatest women’s tennis player of all time in a Major final is a completely different animal than Saturday afternoon at the racquet club, yet Kerber prevailed by embracing the same basic strategy — she extended points one or two shots beyond what Serena may have expected.

On Serena’s best night, or even an average night it probably wouldn’t have mattered. But with the world #1 looking uncharacteristically shaky, each extra ball Serena was forced to hit increased the chances of an unforced error.

Now to be fair, Kerber wasn’t just looping shots right down the middle of the court and waiting for Serena to screw up. The German put on a spectacular show of defensive tennis, running down shots that would have ended the point for Williams against many opponents and hitting sharp angles on her groundstrokes to pull Serena off the court. Time after time it seemed Serena had a point won only to have to hit two more shots — a fact that played to Kerber’s advantage overall, even when Serena did manage to finish off the extended points.

And while she spent the majority of the match playing defense, Kerber was opportunistic in taking the offensive. She consistently passed Williams at the net with whipping crosscourt forehands. Despite not serving particularly well (which will likely be the thing Serena looks back and laments not being able to take advantage of), Kerber aced Williams five times, all of which seemed to come at big moments in the match. Perhaps most impressive were the perfectly executed backhand drop shots that Kerber pulled out in the match’s final set, helping her jump to a 5–2 advantage before just surviving Serena’s last grasp attempt at a comeback (the type we’ve become accustomed to seeing Williams complete time and time again).

There’s a decent case to be made that Kerber’s “counterpunchingpunctuated by opportunistic offense” approach is the best possible strategy to play against Serena. How many times have we seen a player — such as Maria Sharapova — attempt to outhit or overpower Serena only to get wiped off the court. Pace rarely fazes Williams, in fact most of the time she is able to not only handle hard-hit shots but redirect them for point-ending winners.

Nevertheless, Serena had an off night — at least by her lofty standards — and will consequently have to wait until the French Open for another opportunity to draw even with Steffi Graf’s 22 Grand Slam titles. Yet Kerber deserves credit for capitalizing on Williams’ shaky play.

On match point, Serena serving and advantage Kerber, Serena fired a serve down the T and then ripped the backhand approach down the line. Kerber got a racquet on the ball and returned the shot back in play. It wasn’t an aggressive shot. In fact it was one that Serena should have put away. But on an off night Serena sailed the forehand volley long and the German collapsed to the court. Just as with the rest of the match she had made Williams hit one more ball and Angelique Kerber is now Australian Open champion.