Russia Puts Boots on the Ground in Syria
Russia has moved decisively, deploying hundreds of troops, tanks, artillery, fighter jets, helicopters, anti-air systems, and transport aircraft to an airbase in Syria, located in the coastal city of Latakia.
Russia has had an active role in the latest Syrian conflict since 2011, training Assad's troops with counter terrorism advisors and special forces. Russia has also had several armored vehicles and ships stationed at a medium-sized naval base that they have leased since 1971 in the southern city of Tartus . The build up in Latakia marks a major escalation. The Russians are growing their footprint in Syria by establishing a forward air-operating base. They moved rapidly and impressively, resurfaced portions of the air base, and are currently building new barracks to house up to 1,500 soldiers and helicopter landing pads, as pictured below, at the Bassel Al-Assad International Airport.
Putin still denies that any Russian troops are engaging in direct combat, but recently there have been videos posted on social media that show Russian troops fighting alongside Assad's army. There has been a claim by a Syrian militant group that they have already attacked the Russian airbase with rocket artillery “We declare that we are targeting the Bassel airport that has been turned into a Russian base,” said a masked fighter in a video.
During a congressional hearing to examine whether or not CENTCOM doctored intelligence reports to make the war on ISIL look more successful than it was, some truths were revealed. There are U.S. Special Operation units in Syria fighting ISIL alongside the Kurds. It was revealed that after months of training moderate rebels to battle Assad's army and ISIL, only a handful remain alive after hundreds of millions of dollars were spent on the program. It was an absolute failure and a half hearted one at that.
It has become apparent that whenever the U.S. and its coalition members take down a middle eastern strongman, the region goes into further disarray and actually produces havens for a cancer like ISIL to freely set up bases of operations, as evident in Libya, where ISIL now acts without contention. Subsequently, the U.S. has only bombed ISIL targets in Syria and not Assad's assets. It might be a sign the administration is finally learning. As Secretary John Kerry told reporters just today “We’re prepared to negotiate. Is Assad prepared to negotiate, really negotiate? Is Russia prepared to bring him to the table and actually find the solution to this violence?”
It would be a proud moment in history if Russia and the U.S. could come to an agreement to keep Assad in power temporarily, only targeting ISIL militants, not the moderate rebels. Secretary of Defense Ash Carter had a meeting with his Russian counterpart, Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoygu to discuss the situation. Immediately after the meeting, Russia sent more fighters to the airbase in Latakia-not a productive sign. They also added anti-aircraft systems that are obviously not aimed at ISIL’s non-existent air force, but are intended to keep the U.S.A.F. at bay. If the two countries can’t come to a reasonable agreement, there could be a terrible incident, for example, the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17. Both militaries are working in the same area of operations and could very well spark hostilities. Secretary of State John Kerry told reporters that he wanted to make sure that “there’s no potential of a mistake or of an accident of some kind that produces a greater potential of conflict.”
Russia's primary motivation is to maintain a footing in Syria which just happens to coincide with the U.S.’s interest to destroy ISIL. If an agreement is not made with the U.S., there can only be an escalation of aggression. The amount of equipment the Russians have on the ground, while being capable of maintaining a weak grip on the country, cannot take back Syria from Jihadist and rebels. They will bring in more troops, heavy armor, air assets, and advanced equipment to secure it’s substratum. Russia has shown it is not willing to give up its sphere of influence, as evident in Georgia, Ukraine, and now Syria. U.S.-led NATO is not willing to budge either. Let’s hope for a mutually productive outcome.
*Update: POTUS has agreed to meet Vladimir Putin to discuss the Syrian and Ukrainian conflicts. The leaders have not met in over two years.
This article will be updated as new information becomes available.
