The Fight Against “Islamic State”

“Boots-on-the-Ground”

Currently the “Western World” is severely taxed as to how to deal with the threat of the organisation that calls itself “Islamic State.” They used to be called the “Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant” (ISIL) and are a Salafist Sunni Islamist group that controls territory in Iraq and Syria and also operates in eastern Libya, the Sinai Peninsula of Egypt, and other areas of the Middle East, North & West Africa, South Asia, and Southeast Asia. The group’s Arabic name is transliterated as “ad-Dawlah al-Islāmīyah fil ‘Irāq wa ash-Shām”, leading to the Arabic acronym Da‘ish, Daʿesh or DAESH. For simplicity’s sake, that is how I shall refer to them, “Daʿesh”. (Apparently they dislike the name, which is a bonus!)

On 8th August 2014, the USA began air-strikes within Iraq, against Daʿesh, and in September, they were joined by Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE in air-strikes within Syria, as well. France, the United Kingdom, Australia & others also joined these air operations; though the UK Government has confined the RAF to operations within Iraq and not Syria.

Everyone seems to agree that air-strikes are not, and will not be enough; and at some point, “Boots-on-the-Ground” will be an absolute necessity. But who will supply them?

It is recognised that it would be preferable, probably essential, that these boots be “Arab boots.” By that, of course, they actually mean “Muslim Boots”. The last thing history needs is for Western or “Crusader Boots” to be leading in this.

Currently there seems to be great reluctance among states in the region, to involve their land forces; and why would any Arab or Islamic nation want to pit their troops against Daʿesh?

To our Western, Anglo-Saxon, Romano-Christian eyes, it is obvious that this barbaric mob, (at thirty odd thousand and rising, quite a large mob,) butchering its way through Iraq & Syria, in the name, it says, of Allah, needs to be stopped. But for most of the Muslim nations in that region, things are not so clear cut.

The stated aim of Daʿesh is to form an Islamic “caliphate” that would include Syria, Jordan, Israel, Palestine, Lebanon, Cyprus, and part of southern Turkey. But some maps they've published show it eventually including Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Morocco & Tunisia; and spreading eventually to all Muslim lands. The horrific acts committed by Daʿesh are difficult for anybody to support, but its goal of establishing a caliphate is certainly attractive in some corners of Islamic thought.

The last Islamic Caliphate was the Ottoman Empire, against which many of the countries in the region fought for their independence. So, though there are some that will welcome an Islamic caliphate, there are a lot of nations under threat, who, just to preserve their independence will want Daʿesh stopped. But how many have the will or ability to get involved militarily?

Before going into these nations’ reasons to fight or not, we must accept, however much our political leaders tell us otherwise, that this is about religion; perhaps not entirely, but predominantly.

As I've said, Daʿesh is a Salafist Sunni Muslim organisation, born out of al-Qaeda; it claims to be acting in the name of Allah and its enemies are non Muslims, Shia Muslims and anyone else who doesn't adhere to their strict interpretation of Islam.

Globally Islam is about 85% Sunni; about 10% Shia; with the remaining 5% being other, smaller sects that tend to be of a conservative nature. For centuries, within Islam, Shīʿites have been persecuted. All the nations in the region, with the sole exception of Israel, are Muslim nations, with varying degrees of religious freedom.

At the moment Islamic State is mainly fighting in Iraq and Syria.

Syria, is officially a “Single-party Semi-Presidential Republic”; a dictatorship; its population of 18 million is 92.8% Muslim; and the Islamic split in Syria is about 80% Sunni to 20% Shīʿite. But the ruling Assad family, and therefore all the government of Syria, is Alawite Shia. In 2011, as with most of the Muslim countries of the Middle East, the so-called “Arab Spring” arrived initially in the form of mass protests, brutally suppressed, which morphed into an armed uprising.

That Bashar al-Assad is a malign Dictator is without doubt; and is the reason why there was a rebellion against him in the first place. The Sunni majority rose up against him for the obvious reason; a hope for more freedom. Then came the support from first al-Qaeda, and then Daʿesh, but for purely religious reasons; the removal of a Shiite regime, and the installation of yet another Sunni Islamic state; part of that intended Sunni Caliphate, which is the aim of both Daʿesh and al-Qaeda. That Shīʿite Hezbollah (with Iranian support; as always) is fighting in support of the Assad regime is also for religious reasons, conversely to help maintain the only other Shīʿite regime, apart from Iran, in the region.

About 80%, the Sunni portion, of the people of Syria will, ideologically, support any Sunni organisation against Assad. That this might gain them more ‘freedom’ would be an added bonus. But that is a big “might”. Anyone believing that al-Qaeda or Daʿesh have any form of “Freedom” on their agenda is living in “Cloud-Cuckoo-Land.” Just to confuse the issue, there was considerable evidence of collusion between Daʿesh and the Assad regime. Oil, from wells under Daʿesh control has been sold to Syrian forces, and it was observed that at one time, the Syrian air force rarely attacked their sites, possibly as a temporary quid-pro-quo. Of course the money paid for the oil helped finance Daʿesh activities in and outside Syria. This ‘arrangement’ hasn’t lasted, but for a time it suited the Assad regime to be able to concentrate on the other members of the motley crew of factions ranged against it, and deal with Daʿesh later. The ‘arrangement’ suited Daʿesh because it enabled them to concentrate on fighting the Syrian Kurds, (who have always been a thorn in Assad’s side, as much as they have been in Turkey’s) and it is provided useful finance, as well as disposing of future potential rivals in the event the rebellion is successful.

Iraq, described as “Federal Parliamentary Republic”, has a population of 36 million, 98.9% of which is Muslim; the split there is about 65% Shia to 35% Sunni. Under Sadam Hussein; though he & his family weren’t exactly pious Muslims, he had been raised Sunni by a devout Sunni uncle, so Sunnis were in charge. The Shia majority, along with the Kurds, were savagely persecuted. In fact it was for ordering the murder of 146 Iraqi Shiites that Sadam Hussein was eventually executed.

When Hussein was removed, elections naturally produced a Shīʿite government under PM Nouri Maliki, and a certain amount of pay-back ensued; included in that pay-back, was the dismissal & replacement of Sunni Senior Officers in the Iraqi armed forces.

Iraq now has a new Prime Minister, Haider al-Abadi, who has pledged to form a more equitable regime. But many of those former Generals & Colonels have transferred their allegiance and now form the ‘General Staff’ of Daʿesh. Further down the rank structure, the Iraqi officer corps remained predominantly Sunni. All this accounts for why the Iraqi Army, though re-armed, re-equipped and re-trained by the US Army over several years, when they first met Daʿesh face-to-face, gave a performance that could best be described as ‘poor’; especially as, on the face of it, they are the ones with the greatest reason to resist & defeat Daʿesh; that is, fighting in and defending their own country. But what we saw was an unseemly rush to abandon equipment, positions & uniforms; an unknown number of defections, and a lot of running away. An action, ignominiously repeated, abandoning yet more US supplied equipment to Daʿesh, in their typical haste to run away from Ramadi, the Anbar provincial capital, in May 2015.

Many blame the USA for Iraq’s current troubles, for withdrawing from the country too soon. But the Maliki government had been demanding US withdrawal as early as 2007. In 2008 the Iraqi government & the US signed the “U.S.-Iraq Status of Forces Agreement” which required U.S. forces to withdraw from Iraqi cities by 30 June 2009, and withdraw completely from 31 December 2011.

Prior to the US withdrawal attacks against them, the Iraqi Government and other Western forces had come from both Sunni & Shiite militias. After the US withdrawal, attacks against the government continued, but only from Sunni militias; al-Qaeda in Iraq, and the like. The Iran backed Shia militias were now ‘government supporters.’

The Daʿesh victories in Iraq in 2014 inspired the creation of the so-called Popular Mobilisation Forces, (PMF), which grouped together the Shīʿite militias, under the control of Iraq’s Ministry of the Interior, which has direct links to Iran; in that its head, Mohammed Salem Al-Ghabban, a Shīʿite who was imprisoned under former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein’s regime and later lived and attended a university in Tehran. He is a member of the Badr Organization, a Shīʿite political party with close ties to Tehran.

Thus the PMF are not part of Iraq’s Ministry of Defense, which has close ties to the U.S. military; and it is the US suspicion that, though officially the PMF work for the Ministry of Interior of Iraq, their real loyalty is to Tehran and the Ayatollah Khamenei.

The PMF militias are now estimated to number up to 120,000, but these are the forces that the US says it will not support, though it’s been said that, “…it becomes very difficult when you try to identify where the units that we will support actually are.”

Technically, the Iraqi army is larger than the PMF, but incredibly; pervasive, institutionalised corruption means its exact size is unknown! In 2014, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider Al-Abadi admitted that the Iraqi army was paying salaries to at least 50,000 “ghost soldiers” who existed only on paper; because many officers were, and probably still are gaily lining their pockets by skimming from the cash-based payroll system.

Some of Iraq’s troops, particularly special-ops teams, have received sophisticated US training and equipment. But among other units, as we’ve seen, motivation, morale and the basic will to fight are, to say the least, questionable.

Many of the Shīʿite militias are some the same groups that US forces faced in direct combat a decade ago. An estimated 500 American combat fatalities were apparently linked to the Iranian supported Shīʿite militias, according to US defense officials, who still consider them to be potential adversaries; though the Iraqi Sunni militias were also fighting US troops at that time, and unlike the Shīʿite, continued to do so after the majority Shīʿite Iraqi government was elected.

The official line is that one of the main reasons why the West isn’t launching more airstrikes than it has is apparently a fear of hitting the Shīʿite fighters by accident. Though the real reason may well be the residual enmity and distrust between US forces & what they perceive to be Iran’s puppet militias.

For some of the more radical Shīʿite militias, there is a belief that the U.S. somehow provides covert support to Daʿesh; which is difficult for a lot of Americans to believe. But there are people who believe that and believe the US is trying to undermine the efforts of these Shīʿite militias.

Conspiracy theories about the US secretly supporting Daʿesh abound; Iranian leaders have declared publicly that the US created Daʿesh and conspires with them in an effort to divide Muslims and erode Iran’s feared regional influence.

Iraq’s only hope of saving itself now appears to lie with the Kurdish Peshmerga or those Shīʿite militias, but the tribes in Iraq’s Sunni heartland, which includes Anbar Province, won’t work with either. That some of those Shīʿite militias have fought in Syria, for the Assad regime, hasn’t exactly enamoured them to those Sunni tribesmen. But Qais al-Khazali, leader of Asaib Ahl al-Haqq, one the most fearsome & feared Shīʿite militias, believes the wars in Syria and Iraq are one and the same. He told a BBC reporter, “Sending our men to fight in Syria was the right decision,” he said. “Al-Qaeda has had a lot of practice in street fighting. If our guys hadn't got the experience in Syria, al-Qaeda and Isis could have taken Baghdad and we wouldn't be sitting here now.” Asaib Ahl al-Haqq and its leaders also make no secret of their links with the Iranians; their fighters are trained and supplied by Iran. But on the matter of “Boots-on-the-Ground”, al-Khazali is adamant, “We don’t want foreign military forces from any country. We have enough people in Iraq. We don’t have to bring armies in from other countries. If you mean advisers; as you know now in Iraq there are not only Iranian advisors, but there are Americans, and maybe Russians, too. Iraq as a state isn’t strong. It’s weak. So it needs advice and weapons. But when it comes to soldiers, Iraq doesn't need anyone else to fight its wars. The Iraqi people are brave and they can defend themselves.”

But, what can we expect from the other Muslim nations, including our regional allies?

Jordan is a “Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy”, with a population of 9.9 million 98.8% of which are Muslim. 93% of those, including the Royal Family, are Sunni. That major Sunni presence in Jordan makes them a potentially easy target for inclusion in Daʿesh’s “Caliphate”, and some disaffected Jordanian citizens may support it. However Jordan is stable with a good economy, reasonable religious freedom and, for the region, a good standard of living, and therefore most Jordanians will oppose Daʿesh.

The Jordanian military receives strong support and aid from the United States, the United Kingdom and France. It has a 90,000 strong (+60,000 reserves) well trained and effective Army. Currently some 40,000 Jordanian troops are performing peace-keepers duties around the world. The development of their Special Operations Forces has been particularly significant, enhancing the capability of the Jordanian forces to react rapidly to threats to state security, as well as training Special Forces from other countries in the region. The recent (early 2015) murder by Daʿesh, of one of Jordan’s pilots, captured after his aircraft came down during coalition air operations, has raised the anger of the Jordanian people. Currently this anger is directed at Daʿesh, but the Jordanian authorities have to beware that, with a largely Sunni population, that anger could get redirected at them. As things stand, a Jordanian contribution to Muslim “Boots-on-the-Ground” is a possibility.

Israel, Jordan’s immediate neighbour, will naturally defend itself, and Daʿesh will certainly balk at taking any steps in that direction, except likely terrorist actions, probably in cooperation with their Sunni ‘soul-mates,’ Hamas; to which IDF will respond decisively. However effective Israeli “Boots-on-the-Ground” might be in dealing with Daʿesh, their presence fighting outside Israel is unlikely, would be thoroughly unwelcome throughout the Muslim world, and more disastrous to “Future History” than the Crusader variety! However, things might be about to change.

According to Israeli media, the IDF is said to be considering working together with Lebanon’s armed forces to fight against terrorism threat. Some IDF personnel have reportedly said that IDF is exploring the possibility of cooperating with the Lebanese army to counter Sunni Islamist militants (Daʿesh & al-Qaeda,) even though the two countries remain technically at war. This could even lead to some sort of, previously unthinkable, co-operation between the IDF & Hezbollah; even if this were completely “under-the-table”, it could have huge ramifications for the future of the region.

On the other hand, and exemplifying the contrary nature of international relations in this region, Syria, under Assad has always been an enemy to Israel, and the IDF has, in early 2015, been carrying out air-strikes against Syrian targets, which were deemed to be threats to Israel, thereby perhaps actually helping Daʿesh.

When considering “Boots-on-the-Ground”, consideration should be given to Hezbollah, the Palestinian Shīʿite ‘Terrorist’ organisation, based in Lebanon. One of the most effective para-military forces in the region; they hold the distinction of being the only Arab Militia or Army to be able to claim to have fought the IDF to a standstill, which they achieved in the Lebanon in July 2006. They have always had Iranian & Syrian support, and in recent weeks have, in return been fighting for the Assad Regime in Syria. In this role they have come up against Daʿesh, with some success.

Egypt, describes itself as a “Semi-Presidential Republic.” The population is 80–90% Muslim, with the remainder being Christian, mainly Coptic. 95% of those Muslims are Sunni. Egypt was the birthplace of the Muslim Brotherhood, of which Hamas, al-Qaeda & Daʿesh are direct descendants.

For decades, under the rules of Nasser, Sadat & Mubarak, the Brotherhood were firmly suppressed. Then in 2011 along came the so-called “Arab Spring”; at first it brought considerable success for the Muslim Brotherhood. After some six decades of illegal status, it was legalized in 2011 when the regime of Hosni Mubarak was overthrown. As the country’s strongest political organisation, the Brotherhood won several elections, including the 2012 presidential election when its candidate Mohamed Morsi became Egypt’s first democratically elected president, and other al-Qaeda groups began to take root within Egypt.

However, one year later, on 3 July 2013, Morsi was himself overthrown by the military as a response to civil unrest across the country. Millions of Egyptians demonstrated across Egypt demanding the resignation of Morsi; the causes varying from general anger over poor economic conditions to the government’s move to grant Morsi more power. The military took over, and made Adly Mansour, interim President.

On 26 March 2014 Abdel Fattah el-Sisi the head of the Egyptian Armed Forces, who at this time was in control of the country, resigned from the military, announcing he would stand as a candidate in the 2014 presidential election. The poll, held between 26th and 28th May 2014, resulted in a landslide victory for el-Sisi. Under Mansour & el-Sisi, the Brotherhood & other Islamic extremist groups have once more been thoroughly suppressed. In May 2015, Morsi was one of over 100 Muslim Brotherhood members sentenced to death by an Egyptian court.

The current Egyptian government’s stance would seem to indicate that Egyptian land forces are a possibility as potential “Boots-on-the-Ground.”

In early 2015, a group in Libya, claiming to be a part of Daʿesh, murdered over 20 Egyptian Coptic Christians. As a result the Egyptian Air Force carried out airstrikes against this group. Strangely this action was condemned by the US State Department. Apparently it’s OK for the US led coalition to bomb Daʿesh, anywhere in Syria & Iraq, but not for Egypt to do the same in Libya.

Bahrain, an Arab Kingdom, is officially a “Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy”, but it is in reality, an Absolute Monarchy, a Royal Dictatorship, ruled by Shaikh Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, the King. His uncle is the unelected Prime Minister, Shaikh Khalīfa bin Salman Al Khalifa, who having been in office since 1971 is the longest serving PM in the world!

Bahrain has long been a staunch ally to both the United States and the UK. Its episode of the “Arab Spring” was swiftly and fairly brutally suppressed; the protesters being granted some concessions, in what is, for this region, a fairly free society. Bahrain has a population of just 1.3 million, which is 70.2% Muslim. The split is 65–75% Shia to 25–35% Sunni, but the ruling Al Khalifa family are Sunni. However, it is interesting to note that if there were free elections in Bahrain, it would probably be another Shia nation in the region. This would be an anathema to Daʿesh, but it remains the main reason for Bahraini distrust of Iran. That Shiite majority in the Bahraini population is also the reason why the so called “Arab Spring” there received so little regional support.

We have seen a token Bahraini presence in the air operations, but taking into account that the total strength of the Bahraini Defence Force is 13,000, and the land component, the Royal Bahraini Army numbers only 6,000, it is unlikely that we will see any Bahraini “Boots-on-the-Ground.” However Bahrain’s membership of GCC, Gulf (Cooperation Council,) may guide its response.

Qatar is a “Parliamentary Absolute Monarchy”; A Royal dictatorship, and an incredibly rich one. Its population is 1.8 million, but only about 250,000 of those are actually Qatari, hence it has the world’s highest per capita income. Only 5–10% of the population are Shia, the other 90–95% are Wahhabi-Sunni. There is considerable evidence that Qatar (or Qataris) funded Daʿesh in its early days. Certainly a combination of poor policies and Sunni ideology has led to Qatar-funded weapons and money making their way into Daʿesh’s hands.

Qatar has defence pacts with USA, UK & France and its defence spending in recent years has been between 2.3% and 4.2% of GDP. The USAF has a permanent base there, hence Qatar’s participation in air operations against Daʿesh. Qatar’s army has 8,500 personnel; however that is only 30% Qatari, the rest being foreign. They did take an active part in the 1991 Gulf War, sending a (mainly Pakistani manned,) tank battalion which performed well. There was no “Arab Spring” within Qatar, in fact they financed it elsewhere, except in Bahrain(!), actively assisting rebels in Libya & and joining in the enforcement of the Libyan no-fly zone. Qatar is also a member of the GCC, which might provide a joint response. However the Wahhabi-Sunni influence will preclude Qatari “Boots-on-the-Ground” against Daʿesh.

Saudi Arabia is an “Islamic Absolute Monarchy”; another Royal Dictatorship, and a harsh one, with a population of 30 million; 97% of which is Muslim, the rest being foreign workers. Of the Muslims, 85 to 90% are Sunni. The official and dominant form of Sunni Islam in Saudi Arabia is Wahhabism (a name which some of its followers dislike, preferring the term Salafism.)

Wahhabism is often described as ‘puritanical’, ‘intolerant’ or ‘ultra-conservative’. According to Human Rights Watch, the Shia minority, “…face systematic discrimination from the Saudi government in education, employment, the justice system and especially religious freedom.” A U.S. State Department report, of 2010, stated that in Saudi Arabia, “…freedom of religion is neither recognized nor protected under the law and is severely restricted in practice…” and that “…government policies continue to place severe restrictions on religious freedom. No faith other than Islam is permitted to be practiced.”

Conversion by Muslims to another religion, ‘Apostasy,’ is a crime that carries the death penalty. Capital and physical punishments are imposed by Saudi courts, such as beheading, stoning, amputation & flogging. The death penalty can be imposed for a wide range of offences including murder, rape, armed robbery, repeated drug use, apostasy, adultery, witchcraft and sorcery and can be carried out by beheading with a sword; stoning or firing squad. The 345 reported executions between 2007 and 2010 were all carried out by public beheading. The last reported execution for ‘sorcery’ took place in June 2012!

When one considers those facts about Saudi Arabia, one has to wonder at their participation in air operations against Daʿesh at all. Ideologically, it would seem there is little to differentiate between them & Daʿesh. Perhaps their opposition to Daʿesh is all about protecting the power and wealth of the House of Saud. Saudi Arabia, like Qatar, may be innocent of a direct state policy to fund Daʿesh, but, as with Qatar, its determination to remove Bashar al-Assad has led to serious doubts about its choice of allies. It is also true that Saudi Arabia and Qatar, believing that the Syrian President would soon fall and that Sunni political Islam was a true vehicle for their political goals, funded groups that had strongly Islamist credentials; some of whom have haemorrhaged members into Daʿesh. Despite them spending 10% of GDP on defence, having a 75,000 strong Army, backed up by 75,000 National Guard and also being a GCC member, I doubt we’ll see the needed “Boots-on-the-Ground” coming from Saudi Arabia.

The United Arab Emirates is a “Federal Hereditary Absolute Monarchy”; a dictatorship, but a benign one; it is a federation of seven emirates: Abu Dhabi, Ajman, Dubai, Fujairah, Ras al-Khaimah, Sharjah, and Umm al-Quwain. It has a population of 9.2 million, 1.4 million Emirati citizens and 7.8 million expatriates. The Sunni/Shia split is 85%/15%. There is considerable freedom of religion, the government follows a policy of tolerance toward other religions and rarely interferes in the activities of non-Muslims. The UAE’s defence spending stands at over 7% of GDP and the UAE Army has an active strength of 65,000 men, and many of its officers are Sandhurst graduates. Though, since the death of the Jordanian pilot, murdered by Daʿesh, they have ceased to participate in air operations, the UAE has the capability to put “Boots-on-the-Ground”, and might do so as part of a GCC component if there is one, of a coalition, as in the first Gulf War.

Kuwait is a “Parliamentary Constitutional Monarchy” with a population of 4 million, but only 900,000 of those are Kuwaiti citizens. 99% of Kuwaitis are Muslim, 39% Shia and 61% Sunni. It has an elected parliament, but is governed by its Monarch, the Emir. Kuwait is described as the “freest Arab nation”, Shias are protected from discrimination, in fact it is a crime to criticise Shia Islam. Women have the vote, and there is one woman Minister. Being Iraq’s neighbour would seem to put Kuwait firmly in danger from Daʿesh, but so far they haven’t participated even in the air operations. So, except as part of a GCC response, seeing Kuwaiti “Boots-on-the-Ground” is unlikely. The fact that since 1991 there has been a large US military presence in Kuwait probably gives them a sense of security. But should Daʿesh attack Kuwait, we could quite quickly see US land forces involved, that least desired scenario; “‘Crusader’ Boots-on-the-Ground.”

The Sultanate of Oman, an “Absolute Monarchy”, is a yet another Royal Dictatorship, with virtually no Human Rights at all. The Sultan Qaboos bin Said al Said is its self-appointed leader and any criticism of him is a crime. Though he abolished slavery in 1970, there are still 25,000 “slaves” in the country. (But, to be fair, that is fewer than in any of their neighbours!) The vast majority of Omanis are Muslim, but are Ibadi; a sect that is separate & distinct from Sunni or Shia, and almost unique to Oman. Naturally, the Sultan is its head. The Omani army, though numbering only 25,000, is qualitatively superior to that of many neighbouring countries, and includes a regiment of British-made Challenger 2 main battle tanks. There are close working relationships with both US and UK forces. The Sultan, despite much US and local pressure has consistently maintained friendly relations with Iran; there is therefore a slight possibility of Omani involvement in any Arab “Boots-on-the-Ground” against Daʿesh.

Iran, described as a “Presidential Theocratic Republic”, has a population of 77.2 million, which is 99.7% Muslim. Unlike most of the rest of this region, in Iran the Shīʿites have a distinct majority the split being 90–95% Shia and only 5–10% Sunni. As we know Iran has already given support, and sent advisers to the Shīʿite militias in Iraq. They have also supported and advised Kurdish forces. It has also been reported that Iranian forces have been in action directly against Daʿesh. Some time ago, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, stated that Iran was, “…against US intervention.” But, following the US led air operations, Iran has surprised many commentators, in that it hasn’t issued an angry condemnation of the US air strikes. In fact, in a surprising (to some) change of tone, an advisor to Iranian Foreign Minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, has said that, “…Iran and the US should work together to counter Daʿesh.” Iran is aware that in all its neighbours there are religious ties and sympathy for Daʿesh, a group that both acts explicitly against Shia Muslims in general and Shia Iran’s interests in the region, and has the tacit support of more people in the Gulf than many would care to admit.

The Islamic Republic of Iran has two types of armed forces: the regular forces Islamic Republic of Iran Army, Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force, Islamic Republic of Iran Navy and the Revolutionary Guards, totalling about 545,000 active troops. Iran also has around 350,000 Reserve Force of about 900,000 trained troops. Iran also has a paramilitary, volunteer militia force within the IRGC, called the Basij, which includes about 90,000 full-time, active-duty uniformed members. Up to 11 million men and women are members of the Basij who could potentially be called up for service; GlobalSecurity.org estimates Iran could mobilise “up to one million men.” This would be among the largest troop mobilisations in the world.

As I've mentioned, Iranian forces have already been in action against Daʿesh, but there is little likelihood of them joining any Western led coalition “Boots-on-the-Ground;” and no chance at all, of the forces of any of the other nations in the region fighting alongside Iranian forces.

Turkey is a “Parliamentary Constitutional Republic” with a population of 76.7 million, 98.6% of whom are Muslim; 70% of those are Sunni and 30% Shia. In the non-PC days of long ago, I could have described Turkey as the “N*****-in-the-woodpile” as far as Daʿesh is concerned. In the early days of “ISIS/ISIL”, Turkey operated a highly questionable policy of border enforcement, in which weapons and money flooded into Syria, with Qatari and Saudi backing. Oil rich Saudi & Qatari citizens arrived in Turkey with literally bags of cash, handing it over to representatives of various al-Qaeda affiliates, who have since merged into Daʿesh, or whose membership has defected to Daʿesh en masse. In addition, hundreds of potential recruits from Western countries, to those al-Qaeda groups & Daʿesh, have been allowed to cross over into Syria, without let or hindrance. This border policy hasn’t changed much recently, and there seems little chance of it doing so in the future.

In September/October 2014, when Daʿesh forces were driving the Kurds, back to the Turkish border, they laid siege to the Syrian Kurdish town of Ayn al-Arab (or Kobane, as it’s known in Kurdish). The Turkish Army parked their armour on their border, stood and watched, and did nothing to support the Kurdish fighters, or relieve the town. This was despite a Turkish government decision on 2nd October, that, as well as authorising the use of their airfields by Coalition forces, gave authorisation for Turkey’s military to be sent into Syria. (That government decision was, on 18th October 2014, apparently reversed by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.) That they didn’t rush to help the Kurds isn’t completely surprising, as Turkey has for decades been involved in a decidedly dirty war with Kurdish independence groups. Most of the Kurds fighting Daʿesh are members of those groups. I’ve no doubt Turkey will fight Daʿesh if her borders are threatened, but in the meantime Daʿesh is cleansing what has been a Turkish ‘running sore’ for many years.

Turkey is in the perfect position, and quite able, to supply the required “Boots-on-the-Ground”, however, though a NATO member they haven’t even participated in the NATO led air operations. Their attitude to the fight against Daʿesh is at best “ambivalent.” Though they have, reportedly, carried out some air-strikes of their own, against Kurdish positions! As with most nations in the region, in Turkey eyes, the fall of the Assad regime in Syria is a much greater priority than the defeat of Daʿesh.

Following fairly constant pressure from Washington, in July 2015, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced that US aircraft would at last be able to use the strategically important Incirlik airbase for their anti-Daʿesh air operations. This decision was announced after a suicide bomber with suspected links to the Daʿesh blew himself up in the Turkish border town of Suruc on July 20, killing 32 and wounding more than 100. (The victims were mainly young activists opposed to Erdoğan, and not everyone is certain the bomber had any connection with Daʿesh.)

Turkey also announced that it itself would be carrying out airstrikes against Daʿesh; but, the attitude of the “Sunni Saviour” Erdoğan, being as ambivalent as ever, these would be carried out alongside more strikes against the Kurds & the Assad regime.

To sum up; the only Muslim “Boots-on-the-Ground” opposing Daʿesh at the moment, are: the Kurdish Peshmerga, who Turkey wouldn't mind seeing eliminated, and won’t work with; the Assad regime forces, supported by Iran & Russia, but who most of the rest of world appear to want to see defeated; the Shīʿite militias of Iraq, who until fairly recently were killing US & UK troops; Hezbollah, a Shīʿite ‘Pariah’ terrorist organisation, in western eyes; and the West’s bête noire major, Iran; now that’s some “Coalition”, and though it could happen, it is sadly, highly unlikely to get either Western or regional support.

The Iranian Nuclear Agreement reached in July 2015, might indicate some hope in this regard; if it is allowed to survive…