The World is on the Verge of Global Famine
What are the consequences of Russia’s provision blackmail for Europe
Due to the Russian Navy’s blockade of access to Ukrainian ports for more than four months, the world is on the verge of a food crisis. It can lead to starvation in a number of low-income countries and significant increases in food prices around the world.
According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, European Commission President Ursula von der Layen and other world leaders, by blocking the sea corridor to Ukrainian ports, the Kremlin is openly blackmailing the world with grain shortages, using starvation as a weapon.
Such actions by Russia will affect countries in Africa and the Middle East in first place — some of them are already experiencing blackmail of Vladimir Putin as a significant increase in the price of bread. In the next few months, the crisis will hit Europe as well. Rising food prices around the world could lead to a migration and, as a result, to a political crisis.
How and why did the world find itself on the verge of food crisis?
Ukraine consistently ranks among the world’s three largest suppliers of grain and oilseeds. For example, the share of Ukrainian corn on the world market reaches 15%, the share of wheat — 12%, and the share of oil — almost 50%.
According to the results of the 2020–2021 marketing year, the total export of Ukrainian grain amounted to 44.72 million tons, including: 16.64 million tons of wheat, 4.23 million tons of barley, 18.4 thousand tons of rye, 23.08 million tons of corn. In the 2019–2020 marketing year, a record was set for grain exports — 57.2 million tons, making Ukraine the second largest supplier of grain after the United States.
According to the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky, as of the end of May, 22 million tons of grain from last year’s harvest were blocked in Ukrainian ports. About half of it was meant to be transfered to the United Nations World Food Program, an organization that provides humanitarian assistance to more than 90 million people who are unable to provide food for themselves and their families.
Considering the data of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, in the first month of the war, in March, only 200,000 tons of grain were exported. This amount rose to 900,000 in April, and in May — to 1.7 million tons. To compare: before the war Ukraine exported 4.5 million tons of food per month through seaports alone. Although Ukraine manages to increase the volume of grain going abroad, it does not seem possible to export the entire volume stored in Ukraine under the current conditions.
The main obstacle to export by land the volume of grain that was exported by sea before the war is the low capacity of border checkpoints and the lack of the necessary logistics infrastructure. Unlike the EU countries, where the track gauge is 1,435 mm, Ukraine, like the other former Soviet republics, has a gauge of 1,520 mm. Obviously, this significantly slows down the export of grain abroad: cars need to be reloaded or transferred to another pair of wheels, thats’s taking a while.
The blockade of Ukrainian seaports is not the only Russia’s action aimed to cause global famine. In addition to stealing several hundred thousand tons of grain in the occupied territories, the Russian army systematically and purposefully destroys agricultural infrastructure in Ukraine — granaries, elevators, grain dryers and food warehouses. In March alone, the Russians destroyed at least six granaries, as well as a number of food depots and loaded ships. In the first days of May, an elevator in Rubizhne and granaries in Synelnykivskyi district of Dnipro region were destroyed. On June 5, the Russians destroyed the second largest grain terminal in Ukraine in the Mykolaiv area.
Besides this, in May-June, the Russians launched at least four series of missile strikes on the bridge across the Dniester estuary, thus blocking the shortest route to the Danube ports of Izmail and Reni, as well as to the nearest unblocked Black Sea port in Constanta, Romania, via which since the beginning of the war more than 1 million tons of grain were exported.
The situation with the export of Ukrainian food abroad is likely to be complicated at the end of the summer, when the new harvest begins. As a result, the volume of grain for export will increase. Recently, Dan Dolgin, director of grain operations at the port of Constanta, suggested that during the harvest season in Romania all port operators will switch to Romanian grain, hence the pace of Ukrainian grain exports will slow down.
Therefore, if the Russian blockade of the Black Sea continues, the grain of the new harvest also risks lingering in Ukraine, and the global crisis will last at least until next year.
The migration wave, the rise in price of bread: what does the food crisis threatens Europe with?
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), grain prices rose by 29.7% in annual terms. Wheat showed the largest growth — 56.2%. Food prices in low- and middle-income countries in Africa and the Middle East have risen by 20–50% this year. For example, in Lebanon, which buys about 60% of wheat in Ukraine, bread prices have risen by 70%. The situation is similar in Egypt, which 80% depends on Ukraine for grain supplies.
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken assumes that in the near future, the number of people experiencing food shortages may increase from the current 160 million to another 40–50 million. A similar forecast is made by UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres: the number of people suffering from severe food shortages could rise to 276 million, and the number of people living on the brink of starvation will exceed half a million.
The global food crisis will inevitably be felt in Europe, where food prices may rise significantly not only due to a shortage of grain, but also due to a considerable increase in the cost of fuel, which makes logistics more expensive.
Polish President Andrzej Duda predicts that due to the mass starvation EU countries should prepare for a new migration crisis. People who do not have access to food will seek for salvation in the first place where they believe there are no problems with supply — in Europe.
After all, Europeans may be hit in their pockets as well due to rising food prices, countries will be forced to allocate funds to vulnerable social groups, which will worsen the overall financial situation of EU citizens. This could lead to a political crisis.
Is there an alternative to unblocking Ukrainian Black Sea ports?
Obviously, the only acceptable way out of this situation is to unblock the sea corridor to Ukrainian ports. However, according to Peter Adams, a special maritime security adviser to the International Maritime Organization, even if a political decision is made to demine ports and the surrounding area, cargo ships will not be able to leave and enter terminals right away. Complete disposal of sea mines in port areas will take several months.
Volodymyr Zelensky claims that the Ukrainian side is ready to do everything possible to resume grain supplies by sea but the blockade must be lifted first of all by the Russian Federation, namely the Russian Navy.
However, the Russians are not willing to open a sea corridor from Ukrainian ports for grain exports for free and are trying to bargain for some preferences: if not for themselves, then for “fraternal” and subsidized Belarus.
In early June, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin said that there was another way to export Ukrainian grain — through Belarus and the Lithuanian port of Klaipeda. However, the recently self-proclaimed President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, has set a condition: in order to open transit, the European Union needs to take off sanctions on the export of potash fertilizers to Belarusian producers. The expected profit from fertilizer exports of more than $ 5 billion will, in fact, save the country’s economy and significantly reduce the effects of Western sanctions.
Therefore, the Putin-Lukashenko proposal is nothing but a proof that the Kremlin is using the danger of global hunger as a weapon and blackmailing the whole world, from Africa to Europe.
Thus, the unblocking of Ukrainian seaports for grain exports is a non-alternative way to prevent a global food crisis. This requires only one thing — the decision of the Russian leadership. And Europe must play a key role in this, that is to promise new packages of sanctions, to increase pressure on Russia, or even to help Ukraine unblock ports by military means. After all, European leaders will not be able to limit themselves to noble statements any more.
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