Brazil’s Bicentennial Independence Day: A Country Amid Uncertainties
“Brazilians, independence or death!” The notorious cry was shouted by Prince Dom Pedro of Portugal at the margins of the Ipiranga Brook in the then São Paulo province on 7 September 1822, after the royal portuguese leader of the Brazilian rebellion received a mail from José Bonifácio and his wife, Leopoldina. The letter’s content showed Pedro that the portuguese Cortes had annulled all acts of Bonifácio’s cabinet, who was leading the country under Dom Pedro’s rule as regent Prince. Dom Pedro’s father, King Dom John VI, returned to Portugal in 1821 after the Constitutionalist Revolution of 1820 in his homeland. Portugal now wasn’t an absolutist monarchy anymore, and the Kingdom was losing its power over its greatest colony.
Dissatisfaction was swelling the Brazilian colony over the demands from the metropolis and its soaring subjugation of the Brazilian provinces to Portugal. After Pedro opened the letter from Bonifácio demanding his immediate return to Portugal, it was clear the ties between Brazil and Portugal were once and for all broken up. The “Ipiranga Cry” was the first concrete step towards Brazil’s independence.
Pedro was crowned Emperor of Brazil under the title of Dom Pedro I on 12 October 1822, but the 7 September remains as the historical and official date of Brazilian Independence Day (although many wars escalated in the country against Portugal and a treaty of peace and the recognition of the independence from the metropolis came only in 29 August 1825). Now, two hundred years after the famous cry by Pedro I, his preserved heart is now back to Brazil from Portugal to take part on the festivities of the bicentennial.
Such a historical and important moment for a country is supposed to unite people and divert from political animosity. However, the image that runs through Brazil is of a country in fear and marked by a lot of political and economic uncertainties.
Last year, on this exact date (7 September 2021), far-right populist President Jair Bolsonaro made a rally in the capital, Brasília, and in Brazil’s biggest city, São Paulo. In his speech in the capital, Bolsonaro addressed his words to judge Alexandre de Moraes of the Supreme Court, saying “we cannot accept more political prisons in our Brazil. Either the head of that power frames yours, or that power will suffer what we don’t want. Because we value, recognize and know the value of each Power of the Republic”. Bolsonaro was referring to the prison of a couple of his allies, ordered by Alexandre de Moraes because of threats to democracy uttered by them. Since the Supreme Court began to open processes and order preventive prisons against Bolsonaro’s clan, the President started to openly make threats to the Republic’s highest tribunal, cursing the judges and specially de Moraes. In his speech in São Paulo, Bolsonaro said that he wouldn’t obey any sentences passed by the Supreme Court anymore. Another target of Bolsonaro was the President of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), judge Luís Roberto Barroso.
But the hostility between Bolsonaro and the Brazilian courts predate his election. Since 2014, Bolsonaro, who was a federal deputy at the time and supporter of then candidate to presidency Aécio Neves against former President Dilma Rousseff, claimed that Rousseff’s election in that year was rigged due to frauds in the electronic electoral system. Neves’ party, Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB), requested an auditing of the votes, but no evidence of fraud was found by TSE. Neves later recognized his defeat, but Bolsonaro kept claiming until nowadays that the electronic voting machines are subject to fraud. And this included his own election in 2018, when he defeated candidate Fernando Haddad from the Workers’ Party (PT) in the second round by a comfortable margin, claiming that if it wasn’t for the rigged electronic electoral system he would have won in the first round. Although he passed years saying he would present proofs against the electronic system, Bolsonaro never presented any proof.
However, the government attempted to pass a proposed amendment to the Constitution at the Parliament, which would create a printed vote. Yet the proposed amendment was rejected by the Chamber of Deputies on the same day a military parade was taking place outside the building. Many critics and opposition parties viewed the parade as an attempt of intimidation of the congressmen.
Bolsonaro’s discourses against the electronic voting machines and his hostility against the other powers of the Republic increased in the last years. Bolsonaro’s victory in 2018 consolidated a country on a rising conservative wave in which voters were up against the growing corruption of the political class, in special by the countless graft scandals headed by the 14 years of PT government. With an anti-establishment and anti-communist rhetoric, alongside violent aspects of a far-right political candidate, Bolsonaro was elected promising ending corruption in the country, but found himself, his family and his government in the middle of at least seven graft scandals. The latest one is a suspicion of money laundry revealed by the Brazilian media after a seven-month investigation, where the Bolsonaro family bought at least 51 properties in cash on the last 30 years.
But the President’s graft scandals aren’t the only factors that explain why Brazil is plungering in a bottomless pit. The government’s mismanagement of the Covid-19 pandemic, which led to almost 700,000 deaths in the country and included refusal of vaccines at the beginning and even corruption schemes in the acquisition of those, made Bolsonaro lose considerable popular support. Furthermore, the soaring inflation, the constant devaluation of the currency (Real) and the disconnection between the government’s monetary policy (contractionary, with increasing interest rates) and fiscal policy (expansionary, with high demand incentives) led millions of Brazilians to poverty and hunger, a scenario which Bolsonaro blames solely on the effects of restrictions during the pandemic. The United Nations put Brazil back in its Hunger Map because the organization found out that 61.3 million Brazilians face food insecurity, while 4.1% of the population deal with actual hunger.
Now the government is trying to circumvent the hunger problem with many populist measures in an electoral year. In 2021, Bolsonaro issued a provisional measure which created the new income transfer program, Auxílio Brasil, replacing the old Bolsa Família created by former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, his opponent in October’s presidential election, and the temporary emergency aid that was active during the pandemic. But now that hunger and poverty have soared up even more in Brazil, Bolsonaro issued a state of emergency bill which allowed him to increase the Auxílio Brasil’s value from 400 reais (US$ 76,21) to 600 reais (US$ 114,32), in a move approved by the whole Brazilian Congress, including the massive support of opposition leftist parties. The greatest problem of this policy is that it surpasses by far the country’s spending ceiling in force, and it can be a time bomb for stagflation in the near future.
Bolsonaro was expecting to gain more support with this measure to confront Lula, who is leading the polls; and indeed he did. But at a very little margin. The preference of the low-income voters who depend on Auxílio Brasil still stand with Lula and his Workers’ Party. Bolsonaro’s hard supporters continue to have the same profile as before: evangelicals, ruralists and businessman. The ideal of economic progress and social welfare state with fighting against poverty from Lula’s previous tenures are still fresh on the mind of many voters. But for many, the corruption scandals during the PT era is a matter of concern.
A month until the election and commemorating the bicentennial Independence Day, Brazil is flooded with uncertainty and threats. The most probable scenario is a victory of Lula in the elections, but Bolsonaro still can overcome this result. The Brazilian people are tired of the same outcomes each election, which inflates high hopes in them to end like nothing has changed, or even things got worse. But most of the people are bloated with a sentiment of animosity and manicheism, which in fact is increasing bipolarization to high levels within the country. Bolsonaro proved himself as an incompetent, corrupt, violent and a threat to democracy, constantly attacking media and the other powers. On the other hand, Lula is also a very corrupt politician, who allowed his party members to participate in bribes and graft schemes, and was even convicted by the justice in a later quashed process against him. Nor he is a friend of the traditional media conglomerates, also constantly making attacks and accusations towards them. Lula has also greeted leftist dictatorships like Cuba, Venezuela, Nicarágua and China, and even condemned Ukraine for the war against Russia (like Bolsonaro did). But the biggest problem doesn’t lie in the past, but it’s ahead. Regardless of who will win the election, the next — or current — President (and the polls show the second round, if there is any, will be indeed between Lula and Bolsonaro) will have difficulty to govern. Besides a strong sentiment of anti-establishment and of violent reaction to politics from the people, the possible economic crisis that lies ahead can make things worse. Bolsonaro didn’t think about that when he passed this state of emergency bill. Or he did, and maybe by purpose. But the most important thing is that this 7 September can not be transformed into a new 6 January. Bolsonaro will use the bicentennial to infuriate his supporters against the democratic system as a mean of “patriotic” escape, but it is up to the institutions and the rest of the people to turn this over. The times of Dom Pedro I are no more, and the enemy is not Portugal. If the people want to curb inflation, graft and political crisis, they must recognize who the real enemy is.
