A.J. Pollock: Fantasy MVP
Going into the 2015 season, Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder A.J. Pollock was being drafted after the likes of Mat Latos and Jimmy Rollins. He proceeded to be one of the biggest draft steals in recent memory, finishing the season as the 7th most valuable fantasy player that season. After an injury-plagued year following his breakout, Pollock is being undervalued yet again, and the opportunity for Pollock to win you a fantasy championship has again posed itself.
Pollock’s wondrous 2015 should have made the Diamondbacks’ outfielder a coveted fantasy option. But after suffering several unfortunate injuries last season, a buying window has presented itself for fantasy managers bold enough to gamble on his upside.
The ‘Five-Tool Player’ is revered within the baseball community, and even more so in the fantasy world. In 2015, Pollock forced his way into conversations surrounding these lauded players, and the statistics show he can do so once again.
At first glance Pollock’s 2015 season seems like quite the jump from his previous form, but the career-highs he set across the board seem to be sustainable.
Pollock’s batting average was the most reasonable jump in his slash line and should be sustainable, as his 2015 BABIP only slightly exceeded his career mark of .325. Pollock’s power and stealing potential, however, could be much harder to gauge. After swiping 39 bags and hitting 20 HRs in 2015, it could be hard to expect replication of these impressive marks. But with only 9 players hitting 20 in both of these plateaus last season, Pollocks ability to reproduce these marks would be vital to his fantasy value.
Being two years older and now playing under the new sabermetric-minded Diamondbacks management should show a slight decline in his stolen base totals. But if Pollock’s four steals in as many attempts last season, coupled with teammate Paul Goldschmidt setting a career-high in SBs are any indication, Pollock is poised to steal 30+ bases yet again.
Pollock’s ability to again reach 2o home runs could be his hardest task. Pollock changed his hitting approach going into the 2015 season and was able to skyrocket his power numbers while also raising his average — a rare feat. Many of Pollock’s doubters point to his 13.2 HR/FB% to explain his power surge, which is admittedly high. But unlike the majority of players, Pollock has the opportunity to play in home run haven Chase Field. The power impact of the Diamondbacks home stadium can be seen in Diamondback ace Zach Grienke’s HR/9 more than doubling after moving to Arizona last season.
Pollock possesses the park, lineup, and skill set required to be a five tool fantasy player, but his value coming into the 2017 season is only existent due to his draft position. After his 2015 breakout campaign Pollock was the 7th highest scoring player in fantasy, yet he is being taken as the 35th player off the board in 2017.
With six outfielders being taken ahead of him, Pollock’s buying window poses fantasy managers with the opportunity to return excess value early in their draft. The ability to earn value from a third round pick is rare, as simply retaining value is a success from the early rounds of your draft. Pollock’s current draft slot creates the unique chance to obtain first round value at a discounted price, and opportunities such as this are few and far between.
Many fantasy owners will be reluctant to draft Pollock due to his injury history, but coming into the 2017 season healthy, the ceiling he holds is as high as any player in the league. Fantasy championships are not won or lost on draft day, but drafting A.J. Pollock may very well be what your team will need to win a title in 2017.
