Dodgers Add Familiar Value
Dodgers end up with a lesser known second baseman in Logan Forsythe for a well-known prospect in Jose De Leon
This last month has been stocked with trade rumors revolving around Brian Dozier and the LA Dodgers. What will or has happened can only be determined by baseball media tweets or by official team press releases, respectively. What “would have happened” based on rumors is Dozier would be looking for an LA apartment, but what “has happened” is Logan Forsythe is a Dodger — an entirely different reality.
The focus is on Forsythe. De Leon is a top prospect who will provide future value for the Rays. However, let’s focus on immediate impact, as in the immediate value Forsythe will provide. The far-off future is unknown, the near-future is a bit more known. My stock tip: short it.
Forsythe hit 20 home runs, 76 RBIs with a 113 wRC+ last season. Yawn. You know that, or you can do a simple internet search and find the same info within the first five search results. The Dodgers needed specific value, so it is important pinpoint Forsythe’s specific value. He is a solid baserunner with average defensive skills. He can play the outfield and the shortstop position, if required. This versatility serves as a benefit for a depth-oriented Dodgers team. In 2016, the Dodgers received minimal value from their second baseman depth, accumulating a meager .246/.308/.379 batting line with a terrible 88 wRC+ and 1.9 WAR. To put this in perspective, super-utility and super-drifter Kelly Johnson posted a .247/.306/.391 batting line with a 87 wRC. Not a comparison you want.
Forsythe fits the build of the Dodgers offense as the similarities are interesting. Let’s take a look at the batted ball data:
Forsyhe makes a bit more contact on pitches outside the zone, and a bit less on pitches in the zone, and with the Contact% there is little difference. Stipulations can be made with the minimal Contact% difference but the real story, meaning where Forsythe will provide the extra value for the Dodgers, lies within the swing batted ball data.
Now that’s something. We can work on +5% change differences. Looking at O-Swing% (or chase rate), Forsythe resists swinging at pitches outside the zone which provides his above-average plate discipline value. Forsythe walks at a 8.1% clip, higher than Robinson Cano, Daniel Murphy, and Ian Kinsler. Z-swing% is another story, albeit a very important and intriguing one. 2016 average Z-Swing% is 65%. The Dodgers are above-average in that department, while Forsythe is a full nine percentage points below the average. Forsythe ranks 10th among all eligible position players with a very low 56.6% Z-Swing%.
Taking pitches has not led to higher strikeout rates, but better, more efficient contact. Forsythe places 4th among all eligible second baseman in Hard% at 36%. He’s above Cano (39 HRs), Jason Kipnis (23 HRs), and Dozier (42 HRs!). Huh, interesting how that happens. Hitting the ball hard is good, therefore Forsythe is good.
The Dodgers were a top hard-hitting team last season, only behind the Baltimore Orioles. Forsythe fits with the Dodgers. Not a perfect piece to complete the puzzle but enough to keep the puzzle intact for future enjoyment. He will work in the Dodgers style of play, and perhaps the same could not be said with Dozier. The risk is less in Forsythe’s abilities but more if the alternative would have been better. I like Forsythe, the Dodgers have to like Forsythe. Projected value is seemingly good but for actual value, we’ll have to wait and see.
