How to Combat Fly Ball Hitters: Part Two
In part two of this series, we will examine which changeups spell doom for power hitters around the game
In my last article, we investigated the merits of high Average Spin Rates (aSR) on four-seam fastballs. We discovered that throwing those fastballs up in the zone, regardless of velocity, would on the whole neutralize the fly-ball tendencies power hitters are trending towards today. Throwing a fastball that isn’t necessarily close to 100 MPH up in the zone goes against our conventional thinking. Today, we will discuss another foil to the newfound lift batters are looking to put onto the ball: changeups.
To be clear, we will be examining changeups with low aSR, thrown down in the zone. Trying to lift those pitches for power is the equivalent to hitting a baseball with a whiffle ball bat; the ball drops like a wet sandbag. So, similar to our last exercise, I compiled the ten lowest aSR changeups for 2016. The first step is to calculate how often these ten pitchers were throwing their changeup in the bottom of the zone. I will use Mike Morin’s visual to exemplify the process:
By adding the percentages in columns two through four, but only from the bottom two rows (which is a 2x3 area), we will get the overall percentage that Morin threw his changeup in what we deem to be the optimal location.
After getting that percentage, I wanted to compare it to opposing batters’ isolated slugging (ISO) against Morin’s changeups in that optimal location. Here is a visual for that process:
Using our same 2x3 area, I divided the total numerator by the total denominator to get the overall ISO. It’s a simple enough process, done over for each of our ten pitchers. To put all of the data in perspective, I included the changeup percentage for each pitcher (that is, how often they threw their changeup as opposed to any other pitch). I compiled the results in this table:
Again, the results look great for these pitchers. In fact, their collective ISO is lower than their high aSR fastball counterparts; this isn’t the only difference between the two datasets. On average, the pitchers from our first study threw their fastball 62.9% of the time, more than double what the pitchers from this list throw their changeup. This is to be expected, as the fastball is naturally the dominant pitch, while the changeup is considered to be a secondary pitch at best. However, the interesting parallel is in the metrics we created: Lower-Third% and Upper-Third%.
The pitchers from our first study threw their fastballs in the optimal location 25.4% of the time, on average. The pitchers from this study threw their changeups in the optimal location 51.3% of the time, on average. Even though the fastball was used twice as often as the changeup, it was used in the optimal location only half as much. Of course, the fastball is not a secondary pitch, and sequencing requires its usage in many places, but having a fastball with that high of an aSR would suggest it should be taken advantage of. The opposite conundrum is happening to the pitchers from our changeup study.
While the pitchers from this dataset are clearly deploying their changeup in the optimal location universally, the degree to how often they use their changeup varies. Some, such as the homer-prone Dan Straily, could stand to bump up his changeup usage and throwing it low even more often. Others, such as Matt Shoemaker, make a career out of their changeup and reap the benefits. My favorite name from this list is “garden-variety reliever” Mike Morin, who was highlighted by August Fagerstrom as having baseball’s silliest changeup. He had the fourth lowest aSR from this table, pounded the optimal location with success like everyone else, but deployed his changeup more often than anybody other than Shoemaker. All aboard the Mike Moran hype-train! Mike Morin: Sluggers’ New Worst Nightmare.
