Is Lonzo Ball That Good?
Or has his father hyped him up to be something he really isn’t?
Lonzo Ball, the superstar point guard for the UCLA Bruins is a consensus top five player in the upcoming NBA Draft. There is a ton of hype surrounding the 19-year-old’s passing ability, as some of it can be drawn back to his father’s bold statements. Ball has even gone on to say that he is better than Markelle Fultz, who is thought by most as the best player in the 2017 NBA Draft.
So, is Ball that good? Is he the better version of Jason Kidd? The next Magic?
The UCLA product is a talented player with skills that will translate to the NBA, but the hype surrounding him as one of the best players in this year’s draft is highly questionable.
The reason for Ball’s high draft stock this season is centered around his ability to distribute. He led one of the best offenses in the country by posting 7.6 assists per game; a mark that led all players in college basketball. Ball makes everyone around him better, which is something that most players can’t do at such a young age.
The skills that Ball has as a passer will help him get minutes right away in the NBA. Playmaking is probably the steepest learning curve that young guards face in the pros, so Ball will be able to focus in on the weaker parts of his game since playmaking is second nature for him.
The problem with being so generous with the ball is that you run the risk of disappearing when your team needs you the most. Ball is not a good scorer in half court settings, so he can’t take charge in the vital parts of the game. Take the last game he played in, for example. De’Aaron Fox, a very good scoring guard without a perimeter jump shot, took over the UCLA-Kentucky Sweet Sixteen showdown. Fox totaled 39 points in the Wildcats’ win, while Ball was nowhere to be found in the second half.
Ball struggles in the half court because he doesn’t have that great of a first step and has almost no physicality when going to the basket. Ball is the definition of a finesse player. If you get into his body at all when he goes to the basket, he’ll fold. Since Ball knows this, he settles for step back threes when he needs to score. When a player’s greatest impact on the court is determined by what his teammates do, it’s hard for him to take control of a game in crucial moments.
Ball has a weird jump shot. As a right-handed shooter, he starts his motion below the left shoulder and brings it across his face before releasing. Everything about it is the complete opposite of what you’re supposed to do when taking a jumper. Ball’s strange mechanics didn’t effect his shooting percentages (going 41% from deep), but the inconsistency will come with that god awful stroke.
The big issue comes from the low start point and the fact that Ball brings the ball from left to right instead of just going straight up with it. Think back to how Ball settles for step backs since he can’t get to the basket easily. Since his release is very low compared to players with normal jump shots, Ball has to take very deep step backs. So not only is he settling for step backs, but he’s settling for DEEP step backs.
Sometimes they work, like here:
A 6'6" guard shouldn’t have problems shooting over defenders. And in this case, Ball makes it incredibly hard on himself to score in isolation. Yes it went in, but if you think that the shot selection above is good offense, I’m not sure how to help you.
Another issue with Ball’s release is how predictable he will become in the pick and roll. Ball’s shot looks quick, but takes a decent amount of time to develop. He only pulls up when he goes left because his mechanics would be even slower if he were to pull up going right.
As a point guard in the NBA, Ball will be put tons of pick and roll situations. Since he can only pull up effectively going left, defenses can hedge the screen to keep him from shooting while they can go under screens if Ball goes right to cut off passing lanes with no threat of a shot coming. If Ball decides to pull up going right, defenders should have enough time to recover and get a good contest on him.
Being predictable in the NBA is as good as a death sentence. Everything is charted and analyzed, so teams will catch on quickly and have no mercy towards Ball.
The issues Ball faces with isolation scoring come from his lack of explosiveness and physicality. His defense makes him a liability for his team on that end of the floor. UCLA tried to hide Ball in zones, but it didn’t do much to mask his inability to defend man to man. Here are some stat lines of opposing guards Ball faced at UCLA:
Markelle Fultz: 25 points, 9/19 FG
De’Aaron Fox: 39 points, 13/20 FG
Tyler Dorsey: 19 points, 7/17 FG
Kobi Simmons: 20 points, 6/14 FG
It seems that it is pretty easy to score on Ball, and the fact that the Bruins attempted to hide him is worrisome for his NBA impact. The professional game is almost always played in man to man defenses. If Ball can’t guard anyone, at what point does his playmaking and average scoring make up for it?
Ball is a very good basketball player that could transform a team’s offense with his playmaking ability. However, his predictability thanks to his jump shot mechanics, along with his inconsistent defense and scoring, makes me wonder if he is worth a top five selection in the draft. Ball seems to me like a final piece to the puzzle instead of the building block everyone is making him out to be.
